Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MK      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	1952	2388	3123	2639	1835	2384	3248	2872	2676	2009	1721	1433	994	1118
NOx	1A3bii	590	805	953	994	862	967	958	980	993	990	1027	822	901	938	750	815	699	807	624	1111	1399	1219	1250	1465	283	415	620	644	653
NMVOC	1A3bi	11829	9030	10123	10489	9519	10341	10273	10461	10442	10484	10836	6740	7273	6820	6970	6843	6266	6779	6763	7139	2319	2118	1781	1890	97	830	750	681	617
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197	1321	1491	1721	1745
NMVOC	2D3a	2434	2441	2467	2479	2349	2370	2390	2403	2415	2426	2437	2446	2428	2436	2442	2446	2450	2454	2458	2463	2469	2472	2475	2479	2483	2486	2488	2490	2493
NMVOC	2D3d	3779	3446	3232	3033	2753	2562	2707	2766	2829	2739	2804	2809	2797	2851	2762	1517	2541	2871	2945	2249	2465	2813	3387	3274	3205	3279	3205	3279	3058
NMVOC	2D3e	1724	1729	1748	1756	1664	1679	1693	1702	1711	1718	1726	1733	1720	1725	1730	1733	1736	1738	1741	1745	1749	1751	1753	1756	1759	1761	1763	1764	1766
NMVOC	3B1a	1589	1565	1573	1580	1585	1590	1679	1696	1592	1644	1642	1666	1652	1537	1544	1500	1568	1572	1624	1427	1547	1779	1603	1672	1647	1614	1627	1593	1682
NMVOC	3Da1	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086	1087	1090	1089	1087
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4461	4685	6308	5478	2492	4143	5737	5430	4857	4963	5031	4123	2567	3026
SOx	1A2gviii	410	403	371	371	351	341	462	829	873	720	921	982	1032	1330	1839	2081	2060	1974	2019	1826	2501	2262	1863	1932	153	980	2718	2658	2598
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23	63	43	268	56
NH3	3B1a	2067	2036	2047	2055	2062	2069	2184	2206	2071	2138	2136	2167	2149	2000	2009	1952	2040	2045	2113	1857	2012	2314	2085	2175	2142	2099	2117	2072	2188
NH3	3B1b	1032	1013	1023	991	994	1003	1032	991	904	895	863	853	821	882	846	826	838	823	797	885	873	796	793	680	712	801	803	821	786
NH3	3B3	835	809	820	906	850	857	925	915	951	1080	972	900	946	894	764	757	819	1248	1171	921	908	912	831	804	778	886	954	942	901
CO	1A1a	2657	2096	2021	2085	2147	2277	2181	2264	2503	2284	2536	2614	2304	2249	2248	2227	2171	2283	1019	1803	1748	2512	3354	1982	2034	1908	1684	1763	1030
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	4758	4993	6653	5760	2654	4415	6076	5753	5103	5193	5249	4311	2701	3174
CO	1A2gviii	317	321	313	304	292	279	466	755	857	657	804	811	857	1212	1694	1981	1847	1742	1799	1740	2365	2174	1986	2000	203	1062	2581	2524	2460
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	3922	4382	5068	3897	5252	1497	1300	1336	1569	1630	1570	5001	4743	4266

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	11B	4933	612	171	76	30	7	90	4281	247	11	14	386	708	106	133	225	122	575	40
PM2.5	1A2gviii	129	130	137	177	215	289	231	222	227	221	299	282	260	252	44	157	316	309	304
PM2.5	2C2	10112	1517	2607	11627	14370	12333	10229	5997	7451	1355	5254	9783	7199	11050	5912	3867	2592	21	31
PM10	11B	6029	748	209	93	37	9	110	5232	302	13	17	472	865	129	162	275	149	703	49
PM10	2D3b	984	412	359	373	448	542	393	305	510	696	824	1070	1010	1167	1010	9	15	14	16
TSP	11B	9317	1155	323	144	57	14	170	8085	467	20	27	730	1337	200	251	425	230	1086	76
TSP	2A5a	502	356	291	75	35	288	470	709	724	590	698	725	718	794	736	773	848	799	802
BC	11B	444	55	15	7	3	1	8	385	22	1	1	35	64	10	12	20	11	52	4
BC	1A1a	50	45	42	38	38	38	43	47	34	36	34	35	34	29	22	5	4	3	2
BC	1A2gviii	35	37	39	40	28	65	28	30	29	29	39	40	37	30	16	36	32	32	33
BC	1A4ai	48	7	95	50	44	46	45	41	47	50	48	24	32	27	29	27	29	28	25
BC	2C1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	26	26
BC	2C2	1011	152	261	1163	1437	1233	1023	600	745	135	525	978	720	1105	591	387	259	2	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989	604567	498748	432566	475308
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	653827	681338	915524	795334	353482	598304	827470	786757	699939	725282	739422	605994	376340	444043
Pb	1A2gviii	16871	16915	16826	16739	18382	20033	6585	81457	91572	71345	87009	88130	93046	146549	229466	239852	252849	235506	244947	235389	320510	288610	262367	271988	12960	126009	357894	349320	338721
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	16368972	1467885	1662369	2701	3090	3672	3497	3140	3475	48135	49612	51084	52251	53684
Pb	1A4bi	457364	426212	460228	508825	488223	487875	487526	487178	459088	488973	566264	445119	448572	494546	497235	453754	490733	417740	486038	533493	547814	518816	335842	322751	257611	276841	272388	216950	243219
Pb	1A4bii	633439	390037	456021	731335	413944	504952	500014	495345	497487	458814	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911	2147496	294292	471918	463106
Pb	2C5	131064150	116827700	139556800	130446050	124682350	134043050	141176050	155643000	169193300	118543300	102242667	81401978	72067200	39720600	20827800	197200	266800	104400	121800	226200						6885	11627	19464	27498
Cd	1A1a	108066	85887	83027	85439	88434	93507	89476	92812	102471	93332	101197	106058	92832	91847	92247	91317	87458	90160	96199	93515	86291	97318	92902	79696	81489	73597	60593	52517	57389
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10442	10572	12958	10883	4781	9111	11734	11985	9501	9823	9991	8177	5079	5972
Cd	2C1	17700	15113	10969	7076	2801	1668	2562	4605	6957	4748	8759	11668	19204	15211	16667	16156	18105	19653	15326	14111	15198	17257	11281	7278	9969	9337	259670	416398	408622
Cd	2C5	350738	316125	372403	347075	330930	356556	377167	415096	449619	317739	272250	218352	194210	110555	53865	510	690	270	315	585						132	224	374	529
Cd	2C6	892075	883945	772050	375680	368540	1428815	1622145	407525	595115	407100	260000	260000	280000	140000	125000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1598615	1502063	1454162	1056983	1013554	2105405	2314139	1143576	1391206	1067573	927767	814640	800033	599811	532780	334332	349313	324146	366206	382584	387828	388719	291957	269007	241501	242312	482353	600860	602557
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1598615	1502063	1454162	1056983	1013554	2105405	2314139	1143576	1391206	1067573	927767	814640	800033	599811	532780	334332	349313	324146	366206	382584	387828	388719	291957	269007	241501	242312	482353	600860	602557
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1598615	1502063	1454162	1056983	1013554	2105405	2314139	1143576	1391206	1067573	927767	814640	800033	599811	532780	334332	349313	324146	366206	382584	387828	388719	291957	269007	241501	242312	482353	600860	602557
Hg	1A1a	170199	133454	129537	132816	138600	145895	139298	144274	160994	146207	153008	164887	142801	143389	143952	142302	132720	134857	153126	147128	135461	154667	147234	126465	128791	116340	96373	83869	92268
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	39324	41076	55049	47864	21720	36112	50060	46913	41975	43389	44105	36329	22846	26820
Hg	1A2b	18230	14466	14530	14594	13419	12244	3	7274	14545	13942	16256	15203	9918	4709	2	3	4	5	4	3	4	5	5	9	23	5	6	7	7
Hg	1A2gviii	1233	1243	1224	1204	1259	1314	1016	5021	5676	4448	5495	5586	5935	8931	13653	14644	15057	14021	14572	14037	19163	17242	15589	16125	839	7734	21248	20758	20162
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846	46685	20774	33312	32690

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A1a	590	464	450	462	481	507	484	502	558	508	536	573	498	498	500	495	464	473	529	510	470	535	510	437	446	402	332	288	317
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1001	1043	1395	1210	539	916	1262	1203	1065	1102	1123	920	572	674
DIOX	1A2gviii	33	33	33	32	34	37	22	131	146	115	139	139	147	228	351	371	385	360	374	359	489	446	408	419	28	197	547	534	518
PCB	1A2a	237307	362648	416687	333837	163263	357026		46299	878212	585323	388462	325066	234310	489952	560999	824805	860285	1159368	1008189	448122	755861	1047728	993974	887411	919734	937784	768588	477295	563226
PCB	1A2gviii	18855	18905	18805	18706	20830	22955	5472	100793	113626	87960	107846	110335	116718	184329	289974	302814	320474	297626	309814	297905	405661	362165	328031	341613	12501	157742	451917	440891	427442
PCB	2C5	124257100	126130200	127625200	114811700	106169100	117581300	131060900	141312400	146487800	114625000	90937333	79439022	74288800	56442400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800						6884800	11627200	19463600	27497600
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	179328437	180152001	178248538	164205335	145838093	159256689	186030452	196972940	202651649	165290583	140876170	129390550	128611347	85388246	38065097	4221055	4602486	4879487	4439181	3977652	4406677	4788885	3679889	3243305	3097991	9987158	13633259	20960965	29023653
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	179328437	180152001	178248538	164205335	145838093	159256689	186030452	196972940	202651649	165290583	140876170	129390550	128611347	85388246	38065097	4221055	4602486	4879487	4439181	3977652	4406677	4788885	3679889	3243305	3097991	9987158	13633259	20960965	29023653
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	179328437	180152001	178248538	164205335	145838093	159256689	186030452	196972940	202651649	165290583	140876170	129390550	128611347	85388246	38065097	4221055	4602486	4879487	4439181	3977652	4406677	4788885	3679889	3243305	3097991	9987158	13633259	20960965	29023653