Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MK Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	1952	2388	3123	2639	1835	2384	3248	2872	2676	2009	1721	1433	893
NOx	1A3bi	5278	780	4508	4671	4239	4605	4575	4658	4650	4669	4825	4352	4695	4403	4500	4418	4046	4376	4710	4609	3158	2781	2439	2643	1743	1702	1683	1653
NOx	1A3bii	590	805	953	994	862	967	958	980	993	990	1027	822	901	938	750	815	699	807	624	1111	1399	1219	1250	1465	283	415	620	644
NMVOC	1A3bi	11829	8387	10123	10489	9519	10341	10273	10461	10442	10484	10836	6740	7273	6820	6970	6843	6266	6779	6763	7139	2319	2118	1781	1890	97	830	750	681
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197	1321	1491	1716
NMVOC	2D3a	2028	2034	2056	2066	1946	1966	1983	1997	2008	2017	2026	2035	2021	2027	2033	2037	2040	2044	2047	2051	2055	2059	2061	2064	2069	2071	2074	2075
NMVOC	2D3d	3779	3446	3232	3033	2753	2562	2707	2766	2829	2739	2804	2809	2797	2851	2762	1517	2541	2871	2945	2249	2465	2813	3387	3274	3205	3279	3205	3279
NMVOC	2D3e	1724	1729	1748	1756	1654	1671	1686	1697	1706	1715	1722	1730	1717	1723	1728	1731	1734	1737	1740	1743	1747	1750	1752	1754	1759	1761	1763	1764
NMVOC	3B1a	1589	1565	1573	1580	1585	1590	1679	1696	1592	1644	1642	1666	1652	1537	1544	1500	1568	1572	1624	1427	1547	1779	1603	1672	1647	1614	1627	1593
NMVOC	3Da1	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086	1087	1090	1089
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4461	4685	6308	5478	2492	4143	5737	5430	4857	4963	5031	4123	2364
SOx	1A2gviii	660	658	615	604	550	505	1025	1063	1152	908	1159	1238	1305	1585	1966	2512	2185	2110	2146	1965	2681	2435	2020	2033	251	1211	2815	2944
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23	63	43	268
NH3	1A3bi		958										25	27	25	26	25	24	27	27	27	32	28	24	25	97	95	93	90
NH3	3B1a	2067	2036	2047	2055	2062	2069	2184	2206	2071	2138	2136	2167	2149	2000	2009	1952	2040	2045	2113	1857	2012	2314	2085	2175	2142	2099	2117	2072
NH3	3B3	835	809	820	906	850	857	925	915	951	1080	972	900	946	894	764	757	819	1248	1171	921	908	912	831	804	778	886	954	942
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	4758	4993	6653	5760	2654	4415	6076	5753	5103	5193	5249	4311	2488
CO	1A2gviii	316	319	313	308	305	302	377	759	847	675	805	775	811	1181	1689	1890	1817	1735	1788	1718	2337	2240	2083	2072	291	1053	2614	2778
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	3922	4382	5068	3897	5252	1497	1300	1336	1569	1630	1570	5001	4743

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	11B	4933	612	171	76	30	7	90	4281	247	11	14	386	708	106	133	225	122	575
PM2.5	1A2gviii	120	121	127	168	211	273	227	217	223	216	293	277	256	249	41	149	313	331
PM10	11B	6029	748	209	93	37	9	110	5232	302	13	17	472	865	129	162	275	149	703
TSP	11B	9317	1155	323	144	57	14	170	8085	467	20	27	730	1337	200	251	425	230	1086
TSP	1A4bii	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	1004	2004
TSP	2A5a	502	356	291	75	35	288	470	456	469	384	698	725	718	793	736	773	848	799
BC	1A2gviii	31	31	33	34	25	56	26	27	26	27	35	36	34	28	15	32	30	32
BC	1A4ai	45	7	88	46	41	43	42	38	43	46	45	22	30	25	26	25	26	26
BC	2C2	1011	152	261	1163	1437	1233	1023	600	745	135	525	978	899	1149	600	387	259	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989	604567	498748	432566
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	653827	681338	915524	795334	353482	598304	827470	786757	699939	725282	739422	605994	346956
Pb	1A2gviii	59174	60187	58161	56138	51930	47730	102601	121034	139040	103059	127350	131769	139550	189953	250880	313460	274317	258545	266372	259054	351145	317522	288282	288690	28910	165206	374081	394086
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	604159	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	16368972	1467885	1662369	2701	3090	3672	3497	3140	3475	48135	49612	51084	52251
Pb	1A3bii	914770	754479	893566	931755	807871	905894	897969	918361	930411	927445	962298	858781	941162	882535	177171	197045	16597	19154	1231	2224	2988	2598	2667	3131	1	2	3	3
Pb	1A3biv	1324708	1576292	2368321	2590917	1251888	1988699	2332084	2967087	3076660	3024893	3217292	1298825	1970834	1848067	298089	327718	25532	28865	1311	1322	36	362	322	338	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A4bi	662941	604159	654721	726884	696530	696182	695834	695485	657643	697335	813784	637667	639074	706639	708763	643932	694676	590378	698396	770748	791678	752198	483781	470690	376115	404693	378858	309992
Pb	1A4bii	633439	390037	456021	731335	413944	504952	500014	495345	497487	458814	448275	499762	504079	520132	121815	120350	10430	11266	11613	11006	106680	106680	106680	106680	106680	106680	106680	106680
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911	2147496	259670	416398
Pb	2C5	9770545	8725144	10398810	9715305	9282347	9982791	10521487	11596384	12598596	8839458	7615767	6070681	5378620	2980510	1544130	14620	19780	7740	9030	16770						6885	11627	19464
Pb	2C6	1056608	1044770	973364	900396	737748	932365	1210725	1031296	1046253	927407	884000	884000	952000	476000	425000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	109391992	18770175	96839796	91170508	87599408	95603715	95967361	99608504	102056819	97658170	100189589	96373847	103443333	95114576	25945907	23312546	8176601	8867366	6217345	5546150	6182539	6881373	5163995	4054591	4377008	4379463	2428625	2212392
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10442	10572	12958	10883	4781	9111	11734	11985	9501	9823	9991	8177	4682
Cd	1A2gviii	1119	1138	1101	1063	975	888	1989	1937	2218	1731	2155	2156	2300	2855	3528	4648	3807	3639	3727	3636	4976	4704	4278	4175	707	2580	5283	5593
Cd	1A3bi	1742	20957	1619	1523	1523	1654	1643	1673	1670	1677	1733	1700	1810	1716	1746	1668	1622	1837	1781	1913	1706	2010	1777	1936	2539	2524	2811	2920
Cd	2C5	25959	23465	27542	25649	24440	26347	27903	30695	33216	23527	20123	16171	14400	8266	3950	37	51	20	23	43						132	224	374
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	39324	41076	55049	47864	21720	36112	50060	46913	41975	43389	44105	36329	21099
Hg	1A2b	18230	14466	14530	14594	13419	12244	3	7274	14545	13942	16256	15203	9918	4709	2	3	4	5	4	3	4	5	5	9	23	5	6	7
Hg	1A2gviii	1189	1198	1181	1164	1226	1288	905	4980	5625	4366	5365	5467	5790	8872	13631	14555	15031	13996	14549	14006	19085	17139	15530	16075	788	7644	21178	22383
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846	46685	13157	21098

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1001	1043	1395	1210	539	916	1262	1203	1065	1102	1123	920	527
DIOX	1A2gviii	71	72	70	69	68	67	89	167	187	148	176	171	179	260	369	417	398	379	391	376	511	487	453	451	62	231	569	605
PCB	1A2a	237307	362648	416687	333837	163263	357026		46299	878212	585323	388462	325066	234310	489952	560999	824805	860285	1159368	1008189	448122	755861	1047728	993974	887411	919734	937784	768588	440033
PCB	1A2gviii	18855	18905	18805	18706	20830	22955	5472	100793	113626	87960	107846	110335	116718	184329	289974	302814	320474	297626	309814	297905	405661	362165	328031	341613	12501	157742	451917	477501
PCB	2C5	69945600	61648000	74691200	70019200	67088000	71968000	75468800	83347200	90928000	63161600	54837333	43339022	38188800	20342400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800						6884800	11627200	19463600
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	187536283	178566930	177557489	131330901	123052482	237824257	266607697	150209961	178046299	128318617	104826676	93290486	92511344	49307486	38085360	4234732	4629793	4874668	4355927	3800868	4257704	4687985	7845363	9819662	9208326	18168930	19040871	25123269