Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MK Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A1a	23769	18962	18287	18858	19427	20595	19732	20486	22523	20550	22756	23473	20675	20256	20322	20132	19586	20419	17591	20045	20837	23215	18910	11954	12954
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	1952	2388	3123	2639	1835	2384	3248	2872	2676	2054
NOx	1A3biii	3005	4224	5002	5216	4522	5071	5027	5141	5208	5192	5387	4409	4757	2476	3940	4403	4919	5689	4341	5896	6923	6012	6177	7256	7805
NMVOC	1A3biii	592	826	978	1020	884	991	983	1005	1018	1015	1053	862	930	0	770	860	961	1112	851	1152	299	260	267	314	338
NMVOC	1A3biv	998	1058	1590	1740	841	1335	1566	1992	2066	2031	2160	441	670	628	800	880	1182	1336	2964	2991	240	2428	2159	2264	2052
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197
NMVOC	2D3a	2028	2034	2056	2066	1946	1966	1983	1997	2008	2017	2026	2035	2021	2027	2033	2037	2040	2044	2047	2051	2055	2059	2061	2064	2069
NMVOC	2D3d	4293	3772	3398	3100	2811	2602	2707	2754	2834	2764	2835	2804	2739	2814	2749	1687	2825	3192	3274	2500	2741	3127	3766	3774	45
NMVOC	2D3e	1724	1729	1748	1756	1654	1671	1686	1697	1706	1715	1722	1730	1717	1723	1728	1731	1734	1737	1740	1743	1747	1750	1752	1754	1759
NMVOC	3B1a	1589	1565	1573	1580	1585	1590	1679	1696	1592	1818	1940	1938	1969	1810	1562	1719	1221	1572	1624	1427	1547	1779	1603	1672	1647
NMVOC	3Da1	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4461	4685	6308	5478	2492	4143	5737	5430	4857	4854
SOx	1A2gviii	660	658	615	604	550	505	1025	1063	1152	908	1159	1238	1305	1585	1966	2512	2185	2110	2146	1965	2638	2435	2214	2177	947
SOx	1A3	674	833	969	1015	891	990	979	999	1012	1028	1062	9156	7794	6998	8022	821	822	1013	802	799	36	27	25	28	30
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23
NH3	3B1a	3511	3458	3475	3490	3502	3513	3709	3746	3517	4016	4286	4281	4350	3999	3450	3798	2697	3473	3588	3153	3417	3930	3541	3693	3638
NH3	3B3	1416	1373	1391	1542	1448	1459	1571	1558	1616	1834	1651	1528	1607	1523	1299	1288	1393	2124	1989	1563	1542	1546	1410	1365	1320
CO	1A1a	2657	2096	2021	2085	2147	2277	2181	2264	2503	2284	2536	2614	2304	2249	2248	2227	2171	2283	1019	1803	1748	2512	3222	2243	3243
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	4758	4993	6653	5760	2654	4415	6076	5753	5103	5082
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	3922	4382	5068	3897	5252	1497	1300	1336	1569	1688
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	131105	110381	122172	131909	119554	123990	121763	125038	128022	131133	143660	110588	112239	113786	118812	112166	115794	110863	121474	130979	111589	118097	109334	112057	101264

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	2G	513	705	555	694	414	157	557	492	453	401	539	670	570	641	748

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	653827	681338	915524	795334	353482	598304	827470	786757	699939	708179
Pb	1A2gviii	59174	60187	58161	56138	51930	47730	102601	121034	139040	103059	127350	131769	139550	189953	250880	313460	274317	258545	266372	259054	351145	317522	288282	288673	109988
Pb	1A3	91613259	71165858	1	83493307	74628388	81738316	81553352	83638995	83619791	83888947	86800102	90249838	88263459	85387281	17665807	17453919	1517763	1640271	117085	1597499	12791	11745	11562	13322	13969
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	16368972	1467885	1662369	2701	3090	3672	3497	3140	3475	3437
Pb	1A3biv	1324708	1576292	2368321	2590917	1251888	1988699	2332084	2967087	3076660	3024893	3217292	1298825	1970834	1848067	298089	327718	25532	28865	1311	1322	36	362	322	338	306
Pb	1A4bi	662941	604159	654721	726884	696530	696182	695834	695485	657643	697335	813784	637667	639074	706639	708763	643932	694676	590378	698396	770748	791678	752198	697221	714365	624020
Pb	1A4bii						15757			106680						106680						249218
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911
Pb	2C5	9770545	8725144	10398810	9715305	9282347	9982791	10521487	11596384	12598596	8839458	7615767	6070681	5378620	2980510	1544130	14620	19780	7740	9030	16770
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10442	10572	12958	10883	4781	9111	11734	11985	9501	9594
Cd	1A3	2922	3037	32	3606	3175	3517	3514	3605	3632	3626	3759	4701	4234	2923	2883	2948	2958	3518	1782	3412	4560	4691	4495	5091	5274
Cd	1A4bii						295			9						9						58127
Cd	1B2aiv	4917	113340	203640	28630	28630	23887	139268	75952	150955	153082	208621	202574	129627	156750	195052	189349	213419	210001	212347	194506	170600	141029	51921	11935	1455
Cd	2C5	25959	23465	27542	25649	24440	26347	27903	30695	33216	23527	20123	16171	14400	8266	3950	37	51	20	23	43
Cd	5C1biii											920	1095	1237	1386	1785	2017	2198	2418	4272	3592	12168	2847	3558	5819	5694
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	479665	458549	532263	323315	294515	387045	542619	392174	507943	462204	514680	503382	434741	385867	415992	347583	370692	371758	379109	354163	397527	313603	211690	154302	143407
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	39324	41076	55049	47864	21720	36112	50060	46913	41975	42396
Hg	1A2b	18230	14466	14530	14594	13419	12244	3	7274	14545	13942	16256	15203	9918	4709	2	3	4	5	4	3	4	5	5	10	21
Hg	1A2gviii	1189	1198	1181	1164	1226	1288	905	4980	5625	4366	5365	5467	5790	8872	13631	14555	15031	13996	14549	14006	19085	17139	15530	16074	5587
Hg	1B2aiv	231368	136008	244368	34356	28665	167122	91142	181146	183699	250345	243089	155553	188100	234063	227219	256103	252002	254817	233408	204720	169235	62305	14322	1746
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846
Hg	5C1biii											4945	5885	6650	7447	9594	10841	11817	12998	22962	19307	65403	15302	19126	31275	30603
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	846328	700465	765549	527861	443979	625487	580416	701150	773891	773789	775376	708097	770767	668574	645662	555523	554348	580909	559270	488934	513212	396671	310167	264356	266266

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1001	1043	1395	1210	539	916	1262	1203	1065	1076
PCB	1A2a	237307	362648	416687	333837	163263	357026		46299	878212	585323	388462	325066	234310	489952	560999	824805	860285	1159368	1008189	448122	755861	1047728	993974	887411	898023
PCB	1A2gviii	18855	18905	18805	18706	20830	22955	5472	100793	113626	87960	107846	110335	116718	184329	289974	302814	320474	297626	309814	297905	405661	362165	328031	341613	115515
PCB	2C5	69945600	61648000	74691200	70019200	67088000	71968000	75468800	83347200	90928000	63161600	54837333	43339022	38188800	20342400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	187496614	177688843	177557267	131330675	123052249	237824017	266607464	150209722	178046041	128318375	104826430	93288323	92509228	49305611	38083130	4232025	4628524	4873387	4359180	3801279	4278726	4685451	3797553	3234078	3219099