Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MK Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A1a	11819	12630	12219	12641	12881	13532	13078	13660	13027	14152	14379	12300	12300	12300	12870	12620	8000	11920	13672	14280	12385	23215
NOx	1A2b	302	557	502	476	410	553	686	694	642	565	684				240	450	450	1240	1176	1176	2	2
NOx	1A2fi	2562	449	408	360	318	320	310	291	268	328	463	500	500	3060	2820	3090	3090	3330	2338	2338	1069	1069
NOx	1A2fii	438	461	539	864	489	597	591	585	588	542	530										878	878
NOx	1A3bi	5278	4021	4508	4671	4239	4605	4575	4658	4650	4669	4825	11300	11300	22000	4500	4750	4750	5370	4710	4710	3158	3158
NOx	1A4bi	1420	1426	1487	1533	1441	1344	1563	1380	1198	1374	1620	110	110	249	1210	1210	1210	1210	1207	1207	776	776
NOx	1A4cii	1413	991	1158	1858	1051	1283	1270	1258	1264	1165	1139	1300	1300	1300	1240	1290	1290	1640	1413	1413	19	19
NOx	2C5e												100	100	100	4920	140	140	2670
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	35810	27293	27885	30457	27299	29478	29640	30335	29648	31153	32011	31910	36910	49901	33560	34410	30150	34960	36556	33080	28967	40038
NMVOC	11B	149	0	26	589	331	4	25	26	1913	1016	2384								503	503	1418	1418
NMVOC	2B5a	30		934	822	686	765	954	1059	1066	847	1026				30	30	30	30	27	27
NMVOC	2D2	1041	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1				1030	1060	1060	1060	859	859	631	631
NMVOC	3A1	797	1223	881	696	744	707	643	772	788	756	817										0	0
NMVOC	3A3	652	921	663	524	560	532	484	581	593	569	615				1450	1490	1490	1490	1151	1151	0	0
NMVOC	3C	130	765	1443	306	353	406	378	452	464	373	415				10	10	10	10	149	149	0	0
NMVOC	3D3	75														6910	6690	6690	6690	91	91	0	0
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	31810	27363	29492	30071	26459	28277	29369	30120	30419	29966	31379				25120	25080	44680	26210	27825	27825	25168	25169
SOx	1A2fi	7836	615	558	494	436	438	425	401	368	451	639	100	100	3660	3960	4040	4040	5780	203	203	258	258
SOx	1A4ai	254	82	383	429	326	436	490	564	575	1439	412	4300	4300	8600	800	820	820	750	842	842	580	580
SOx	3D3												200	200	4600
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	97420	95825	90871	97122	95911	101901	99837	104187	99725	108269	105595	136530	165880	150325	100750	100620	86720	100070	113565	113290	83153	101070
NH3	1A4ai	0	450													10	10	10	10	8	8
CO	11B	1630	1	282	6457	3624	43	273	282	20954	11129	26121								5510	5510	14175	14175
CO	1A2a	36	2203	1417	10	1959	2223	2847	3291	3719	3262	3947				30	50	50	70	154	154	2381	2381
CO	1A3bi	46342	35295	39566	40996	37208	40420	40154	40887	40812	40979	42355	47300	47300	76300	34810	35370	35370	38860	33312	33312	20074	20074
CO	1A4ai	5	740	721	799	649	680	696	717	720	1952	1531	1000	1000	27600	270	280	280	220	261	261	1097	1097
CO	1A4bi	48372	48561	50642	52219	49066	45786	53228	46985	40804	46795	55183	600	600	212	41170	41170	41170	41170	41171	41171	39427	39427
CO	2C5e												100	100	100	9000	200	200	4850
CO	3D3												300	300	16700							1	1
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	116380	96963	104369	107643	98585	100787	109117	104909	99313	106036	116779	76100	81300	138514	94910	95930	95910	97860	97822	90180	69576	71582

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
TSP	1A2b	1496			13200	630	1180	1180	3261	3087	3087	0	0
TSP	1A2fi	134				560	580	580	810	74	74	0	0
TSP	2C2	59								16167		81	81
TSP	2C5e					18750	100	100	9908

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a												1121315	990090	1008679	966811	949655	981610	897751	1030871	1028170	928415	1018887
Pb	1A2a												274535	206017	206017	27304	40952	40952	68102	161431	198599	356185	356185
Pb	1A2b												264457	181236	80034	144095	158857	158857	121041	608226	73	33	33
Pb	1A2fi												73128	76521	69583	96982	106507	106507	127609	395970	22656	84873	84873
Pb	1A3bi												85064979	84520617	82384938	17134064	16928220	1467885	1585503	828	1548890	3672	3672
Pb	1A3biv												3867826	2517581	1848067	298089	294604	25532	27568	95693	26927	36	36
Pb	1A4bi												259998	263984	290692	290917	290917	290917	275281	928070	354488	348315	348315
Pb	2C5b												9663940	6368960	2745340							439180	439180
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL												104329967	100144714	92728480	21094232	22757958	6743838	5645509	7254817	7122900	7481532	7573343
Cd	1A2b												3591	2510	1076	2028	2270	2270	2067	8170	12	17	17
Cd	1A2fi												1502	1592	1360	2323	2376	2376	2879	5319	479	5886	5886
Hg	1A2a												15385	11214	11214	342	508	508	696	1509	9521	18344	18344
Hg	1A2b												15207	9935	4710	8289	8596	8596	3044	35858	5	7	7
Hg	1A2fi												518	554	462	808	817	817	992	23344	163	75961	75961
Hg	1A4bi												3864	4088	4425	3843	3843	3843	3647	36409	4224	4209	4209