Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: ME      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A1a	4075	3391	2655	2289	1887	325	2686	2517	3215	3364	3299	2563	3891	3697	3616	2739	3121	2255	3520	1843	3926	4235	4157	3700	3705	4026	3362	3484	4006	3604
NOx	1A2gviii	115	115	112	93	48	72	93	14	20	15	0	9	15	14	3	154	104	262	259	50	45	44	39	164	669	625	628	801	763	838
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	10088	10585	7344	6130	5624	4016	6800	6114	7517	8377	9026	8000	9101	9022	9482	10212	10835	11841	13456	10700	11938	11776	11042	10466	9681	10577	10837	11649	12687	12681
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	10088	10585	7344	6130	5624	4016	6800	6114	7517	8377	9026	8000	9101	9022	9482	10148	10835	11841	13456	10700	11938	11776	11042	10466	9681	10577	10837	11649	12687	12681
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	10088	10585	7344	6130	5624	4016	6800	6114	7517	8377	9026	8000	9101	9022	9482	10212	10835	11841	13456	10700	11938	11776	11042	10466	9681	10577	10837	11649	12687	12681
NMVOC	1A3dii	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	10	12	13	14	13	22	25	25	26	25	30	378	385	30	22	21	19
NMVOC	1B1a	1405	1389	1354	1147	999	667	1125	1032	1273	1206	1252	952	1445	1294	1219	1038	1210	962	1392	766	1405	1550	1578	1354	1324	1418	1118	1180	1277	1284
NMVOC	2D3a	696	700	703	705	708	711	714	717	720	723	726	729	732	735	736	737	738	739	740	742	696	744	745	745	746	747	747	747	747	746
SOx	1A1a	25813	21520	17141	14867	12076	1456	17525	15888	20737	21599	21148	16004	25139	23750	23087	18589	21201	15273	23888	12509	26643	28747	28208	25164	25201	27385	22204	22951	26449	24514
SOx	1A2b	147	206	113	74	80	76	76	36	35	36	80	81	115	138	118	249	260	267	249	107	59	52	35	32	6	6	5	5	3	0
SOx	2C3	527	512	446	191	57	130	527	403	383	527	478	541	582	601	604	602	609	621	557	317	413	466	372	242	214	212	198	202	201	183
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	26872	22615	18008	15462	12466	1896	18483	16725	21329	22445	21880	16925	26172	24743	24077	20012	22477	16817	25243	13385	27599	29497	28813	25637	25617	27821	22621	23391	26880	24943
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	26872	22615	18008	15462	12466	1896	18483	16725	21329	22445	21880	16925	26172	24743	24077	20012	22477	16817	25243	13385	27599	29497	28813	25637	25617	27821	22621	23391	26880	24943
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	26872	22615	18008	15462	12466	1896	18483	16725	21329	22445	21880	16925	26172	24743	24077	20012	22477	16817	25243	13385	27599	29497	28813	25637	25617	27821	22621	23391	26880	24943
NH3	3B3	147	141	140	133	132	130	134	142	136	128	115	127	132	142	78	69	85	67	65	80	72	139	119	133	140	161	361	162	153	149
NH3	3B4gii	99	103	93	86	87	85	84	81	88	81	86	89	91	96	53	50	49	55	47	45	55	87	136	40	44	30	83	57	46	44
CO	2C3	12650	12279	10700	4572	1380	3129	12650	9672	9187	12650	11463	12975	13978	14426	14496	14446	14616	14908	13361	7605	9907	11189	8926	5799	5132	5100	4747	4855	4820	4386
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	78385	70971	70131	67669	46861	31406	40987	36513	36247	42366	41403	37630	44379	46624	47441	46006	46880	48235	46591	43165	45841	47907	45458	38207	37155	38278	37617	37447	35446	33949
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	78385	70971	70131	67669	46861	31406	40987	36513	36247	42366	41403	37630	44379	46624	47441	46006	46880	48235	46591	43165	45841	47907	45458	38207	37155	38278	37617	37447	35446	33949
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	78385	70971	70131	67669	46861	31406	40987	36513	36247	42366	41403	37630	44379	46624	47441	46006	46880	48235	46591	43165	45841	47907	45458	38207	37155	38278	37617	37447	35446	33949

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A4bi	3574	2991	4358	4500	4588	4407	4459	4495	4495	4722	4931	5062	5126	4854	4657	4762	4680	4606	4184	3976
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	4119	3509	4905	5048	5128	5013	5105	5299	5317	5406	5601	5746	5780	5493	5258	5400	5342	5288	4903	4735
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4119	3509	4905	5048	5128	5013	5105	5299	5317	5406	5601	5746	5780	5493	5258	5400	5342	5288	4903	4735
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	4119	3509	4905	5048	5128	5013	5105	5299	5317	5406	5601	5746	5780	5493	5258	5400	5342	5288	4903	4735
PM10	1A1a	161	142	181	176	177	89	101	75	115	60	128	138	136	118	119	129	106	110	126	115
PM10	1A4bi	3670	3072	4476	4621	4712	4526	4580	4617	4617	4850	5064	5198	5264	4985	4782	4890	4806	4731	4298	4083
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	4373	3765	5235	5353	5420	5235	5317	5453	5513	5517	5919	5960	5980	5659	5425	5575	5488	5474	5059	4870
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4373	3765	5235	5353	5420	5235	5317	5453	5513	5517	5919	5960	5980	5659	5425	5575	5488	5474	5059	4870
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	4373	3765	5235	5353	5420	5235	5317	5453	5513	5517	5919	5960	5980	5659	5425	5575	5488	5474	5059	4870
TSP	1A1a	233	205	263	256	258	132	149	111	170	89	190	204	201	175	176	191	156	162	186	171
TSP	1A4bi	3864	3234	4712	4864	4960	4764	4821	4860	4860	5105	5331	5472	5541	5247	5034	5148	5059	4980	4524	4298
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	5019	4346	5946	6063	6043	5804	5902	6021	6114	6021	6547	6567	6605	6262	6020	6188	6110	6120	5656	5464
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	5019	4346	5946	6063	6043	5804	5902	6021	6114	6021	6547	6567	6605	6262	6020	6188	6110	6120	5656	5464
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	5019	4346	5946	6063	6043	5804	5902	6021	6114	6021	6547	6567	6605	6262	6020	6188	6110	6120	5656	5464
BC	1A1a	34	25	40	38	37	32	36	26	41	21	45	49	48	43	43	47	42	44	50	42
BC	1A2e	0	0	0										0	0	259	218	222	215	221	266
BC	1A2gviii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	232	247	232	24	28	28	27	24	25
BC	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
BC	1A4cii	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	9	9	6	7	4	3	4	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	232106	193313	153743	133232	108190	13367	156980	142565	185818	193573	189548	143855	225238	213233	207524	165987	189299	136386	213297	111694	237905	256689	251876	224680	225009	244513	198231	204902	236130	218879
Pb	1A2d							20200	26934	19	15	9	7	4	2	2	2	1	1	2						1	1	1	2	1	1
Pb	1A2gviii	4548	4543	4539	6773	4522	6768	6784	4530	49	13503	35	11250	13487	4501	4497	33692	15733	20237	22481	6742	9	7001	7447	7021	1103	1238	1227	1219	1051	1072
Pb	2C1	539869	510549	371215	299783	290735	230337	266466	344141	367757	228805	220451	285368	215363	153494	390429	265842	419466	452174	524394	269045	539869	159026	68019	51280	37258	95165	117436	117580	117502	109736
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1177227	1053655	896385	842598	684254	415706	606448	663648	686411	578701	555854	565579	631950	552134	786687	652502	810328	820710	966869	589321	981213	634969	538456	483784	457088	544037	518025	522583	540078	509979
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1177227	1053655	896385	842598	684254	415706	606448	663648	686411	578701	555854	565579	631950	552134	786687	652502	810328	820710	966869	589321	981213	634969	538456	483784	457088	544037	518025	522583	540078	509979
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	1177227	1053655	896385	842598	684254	415706	606448	663648	686411	578701	555854	565579	631950	552134	786687	652502	810328	820710	966869	589321	981213	634969	538456	483784	457088	544037	518025	522583	540078	509979
Cd	1A1a	30593	25401	19762	16989	14051	2661	19897	18843	23898	25039	24565	19292	28906	27595	27079	19978	22753	16452	25668	13442	28629	30883	30314	26962	27001	29342	23807	24610	28358	26265
Cd	1A2e	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	0	60	0	30	60	30	30	61	31	122	62	0	0		0	0	3756	3200	3244	3145	3238	3890
Hg	1A1a	42995	35810	28793	25034	20084	1761	29576	26250	34719	36049	35265	26329	42132	39844	38663	32042	36567	26297	41177	21562	45928	49560	48623	43438	43502	47272	38316	39604	45641	42317
Hg	1A2d							1191	1588	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						1	1	1	2	1	1
Hg	1A2gviii	317	317	291	418	276	413	419	269	32	821	2	689	820	293	290	2110	1118	1393	1573	505	182	297	256	423	269	277	268	305	293	293
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	62894	54249	44406	40032	32246	10465	40062	38154	44852	44651	42741	35460	51384	47405	50824	44250	50611	42117	58126	31667	60851	57501	54645	49018	48604	53781	45227	46438	52186	48640
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	62894	54249	44406	40032	32246	10465	40062	38154	44852	44651	42741	35460	51384	47405	50824	44250	50611	42117	58126	31667	60851	57501	54645	49018	48604	53781	45227	46438	52186	48640
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	62894	54249	44406	40032	32246	10465	40062	38154	44852	44651	42741	35460	51384	47405	50824	44250	50611	42117	58126	31667	60851	57501	54645	49018	48604	53781	45227	46438	52186	48640

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HCB	1A1a	95398	79654	64685	56461	45029	2709	66884	58351	78090	80900	79077	58062	94845	89177	86145	73956	84436	60650	95046	49769	106012	114403	112228	100357	100504	109216	91251	94582	108755	97766
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	166913	140836	130888	129405	95438	31439	94171	83124	100373	104108	103273	78439	124475	119758	117284	104140	115172	92756	127120	83193	139720	151132	149455	135781	134821	144639	126105	128820	140260	128124
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	166913	140836	130888	129405	95438	31439	94171	83124	100373	104108	103273	78439	124475	119758	117284	104140	115172	92756	127120	83193	139720	151132	149455	135781	134821	144639	126105	128820	140260	128124
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	166913	140836	130888	129405	95438	31439	94171	83124	100373	104108	103273	78439	124475	119758	117284	104140	115172	92756	127120	83193	139720	151132	149455	135781	134821	144639	126105	128820	140260	128124
PCB	1A1a	30001	25072	20367	17783	14211	937	21065	18311	24497	25380	24806	18219	29760	27994	27045	23224	26509	19050	29832	15620	33248	35880	35176	31455	31501	34232	29546	30712	35233	30643
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40015	34921	30134	30396	23697	12953	58748	61755	25246	48775	25407	35902	53184	37118	36392	80842	55802	68299	73460	24845	34189	36491	35712	31950	31970	37925	32398	33552	38019	33980
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	40015	34921	30134	30396	23697	12953	58748	61755	25246	48775	25407	35902	53184	37118	36392	80842	55802	68299	73460	24845	34189	36491	35712	31950	31970	37925	32398	33552	38019	33980
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40015	34921	30134	30396	23697	12953	58748	61755	25246	48775	25407	35902	53184	37118	36392	80842	55802	68299	73460	24845	34189	36491	35712	31950	31970	37925	32398	33552	38019	33980