Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ME Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A1a	2470	2408	1978	1675	1337	115	1966	1954	2529	2424	2711	2085	3063	2817	2708	2379	2731	2172	3167	1653	3835	6531
NOx	1A2gvii	256	298	226	157	92	131	134	46	92	56	66	102	62	167	200	397	13	167	449	295	66	117
NOx	1A4cii	287	336	249	137	95	119	200	252	235	210	214	207	200	193	196	228	210	252	256	245	280	231
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	7625	9493	7547	4666	3995	3012	6354	6252	7539	8371	8855	7306	7461	7427	7607	7518	7808	7995	9476	7467	9763	12565
NMVOC	1A3ai(i)	18	38	15	14	12	21	27	29	40	23	42	40	46	72	70	6	84	100	51	94	174	261
NMVOC	1B1a	398	398	382	317	275	177	315	292	366	345	360	271	403	372	348	296	345	275	400	220	446	454
NMVOC	2D3d	1394	1594	1326	1325	1325	1390	1625	1709	1750	1765	1835	1721	1687	1667	2145	1453	1742	2558	3440	2460	1221	1427
SOx	1A1a	10318	9924	8236	6247	4981	905	7775	7987	9976	9637	10765	8617	12062	11141	10972	9687	11127	9090	12702	6386	25853	38345
SOx	1A2b	667	518	487	32		137	259	396	378	385	461	496	585	590	604	579	584	593	543	145	1	1
SOx	2C3	633	614	535	229	69	156	306	484	459	485	573	649	699	721	725	722	731	745	668	380	889	559
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	13959	15294	12734	8216	6912	3769	12030	11072	13100	13450	13529	11092	15390	14804	14107	12509	13754	11795	15356	8087	27828	39752
NH3	3B4e	295	286	250	239	240	242	234	222	210	185	158	148	142	134	110	93	81	76	73	64	117	60
NH3	3B4gi	416	421	380	351	356	345	340	331	359	329	349	361	370	393	353	198	193	191	184	186	108	216
CO	2C3	12650	12279	10700	4572	1380	3129	6129	9672	9187	9710	11463	12975	13978	14426	14496	14446	14616	14908	13361	7605	9907	11189
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	57613	65567	53554	34550	22368	28295	39493	37861	40459	42396	40234	37282	34449	40207	39701	37180	35823	36504	34619	29148	30422	33085

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11B	2125	135	113	1132	390	29	59	5187	1028	26	157	15007
PM2.5	1A1a	2438	1860	2760	2513	2462	2124	2481	1958	2933	1589	246	1957
PM2.5	1A2gviii	211	43	269	364	237	21	8	20	19	3	5	3
PM2.5	1B1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		128	128
PM2.5	2C3	134	151	163	168	169	169	171	174	156	89	1312	131
PM10	11B	2361	150	126	1257	433	32	65	5763	1142	28	174	16674
PM10	1A1a	4600	3569	5189	4694	4744	4044	4793	3822	5700	3114	856	6818
PM10	1A2gviii	718	125	923	1250	816	32	13	31	30	4	7	4
PM10	1B1a	5	4	5	5	5	4	5	4	5	3	800	800
PM10	2C3	306	346	373	385	387	385	390	398	356	203	2999	298

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	351000	340000	277000	226000	184000	34000	265000	271000	342000	320000	355000	284000	398000	364000	369000	319000	374000	305000	435000	226000	405000	402000
Pb	1A3bii	43119000	59637000	44538000	21533000	18993000	21791000	45610000	31737000	34624000	43294000	28291000	19682000	10605000	10993000	10838000	7295000	6334000	7570000	6585000	6902000	7145000	460000
Pb	2C1	540000	511000	371000	300000	291000	230000	266000	344000	368000	229000	220000	285000	215000	153000	390000	266000	419000	452000	524000	269000	126000	159000
Cd	1A1a	32000	32000	26000	24000	19000	1000	27000	26000	34000	33000	36000	27000	41000	38000	36000	31000	36000	28000	43000	23000	47000	48000
Cd	1A4bi	2000	2000	2000	2000	1000	2000	2000	2000	2000	2000	1000	2000	2000	2000	2000	2000	2000	2000	3000	3000	3000	3000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	80000	80000	63000	51000	43000	24000	55000	58000	68000	57000	57000	54000	63000	56000	71000	56000	73000	68000	90000	50000	63000	67000
Hg	1A1a	54000	54000	43000	41000	33000	1000	45000	43000	58000	54000	60000	45000	69000	63000	60000	52000	60000	47000	72000	39000	79000	80000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	73000	76000	63000	58000	49000	19000	66000	62000	78000	75000	73000	57000	85000	79000	78000	64000	76000	62000	87000	50000	87000	87000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	246	238	190	153	128	39	174	183	226	203	221	187	248	222	243	206	250	209	293	155	244	228
DIOX	2C7c	415	349	238	100	17	94	131	229	192	74	170	147	62	62	92	87	94	123	81	61	72	67
HCB	2C7c	59352000	49806000	33993000	14267000	2446000	13421000	18774000	32662000	27454000	10611000	24262000	20985000	8838000	8905000	13162000	12422000	13421000	17587000	11632000	8741000	10232000	9603000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	59364000	49816000	34004000	14278000	2455000	13430000	18783000	32672000	27461000	10618000	24269000	20993000	8847000	8917000	13175000	12435000	13435000	17600000	11647000	8756000	10247000	9619000
PCB	1A1a	95000	82000	77000	4000		29000	47000	65000	58000	69000	78000	82000	82000	82000	87000	85000	92000	89000	86000	22000