Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A3bi	5980	5504	2733	1806	1628	1695	1672	2003	1753	1134	1247	1389	1545	1820	1918	1954	1880	2005	2120	2136	2199	2340	2241	2528	2649	2910	3139	3268	3370	3472	3149
NOx	1A3c	6707	5735	4763	4556	1810	1595	1548	1330	984	513	554	596	1357	721	997	1347	1684	1694	1558	853	868	801	863	553	46	374	780	629	341	427	300
NOx	3Da1	3696	3319	2480	1059	565	421	530	480	414	236	417	511	721	589	652	648	555	758	894	693	861	1079	1484	1774	2663	102	1999	2513	2857	2857	3001
NMVOC	1A3	16413	14650	7838	5184	4585	4789	4548	4893	4109	2375	2391	2568	3022	3801	4117	4313	3989	4148	4295	4092	4317	4529	3855	3830	3532	3741	4008	4113	4420	4561	4072
NMVOC	1A3bi	6015	5595	2606	1699	1604	1683	1660	2003	1738	1062	1097	1193	1324	1637	1726	1774	1654	1701	1756	1696	1595	1643	1414	1401	1616	1742	1874	1822	1916	1927	1670
NMVOC	2H2	16703	14101	11415	13303	11308	13976	14721	14690	10377	6740	4371	8574	9106	10250	12050	13128	8131	5906	6392	5206	6849	6500	6293	7977	7631	6053	6805	5126	5486	5682	4262
SOx	1A1a	102380	90523	71248	62319	47147	25595	23454	10550	7955	2155	1002	893	701	538	487	440	334	211	306	616	528	398	674	7127	408	87	217	34	47	40	36
SOx	1A2e	729	612	495	381	359	346	377	324	292	221	194	249	196	166	174	160	147	72	77	48	64	71	86	71	108	52	61	47	56	35	26
SOx	1A2f	1458	487	337	186	36	31	109	84	31	28	28	2	3	4	17	18	6	7	1751	1311	291	1492	81	1952	422	1485	953	1068	888	858	1501
SOx	1A3	862	642	12561	294	209	209	197	205	175	114	128	112	134	160	182	190	48	49	51	48	8	8	8	8	21	22	18	18	17	16	11
SOx	1A3aii(i)	24	18	12160	6	6	7	7	7	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A5a	289	265	152	337	256	259	196	201	203	161	151	105	153	107	37	40	120	96	115	18	99	88	5	0	201	186	192	201	207	203	199
NH3	3B1a	6541	6223	6318	5718	5730	5062	4724	4303	4004	3859	3670	3690	3748	3414	3049	2854	2718	2214	2104	2121	2034	1910	1782	1690	1722	1685	1690	1610	2105	1297	1099
NH3	3Da2c	4438	4033	3651	3117	3028	2754	2850	1061	2122	1933	1719	1754	1769	1676	1612	1697	1738	1339	1314	1466	1510	1384	1279	1214	1322	1286	1334	1273	1273	1826	1551
CO	1A3aii(i)	28401	21497	14593	7688	7761	7820	7866	7904	6711	797	797	39	33	257	137	660	77	412	60	30	137	27	55	77	55	122	90	230	60	111	0
CO	1A3bi	49741	46026	21278	13558	12995	13765	13475	16343	14081	8381	8610	9405	10438	13100	13938	14315	13300	13518	13693	12932	12009	12576	10211	9879	12003	12268	12600	12171	12870	13325	11869
CO	3F	11431	19704	17975	24483	13288	18628	12639	22356	20124	19548	7607	9747	1773	25	409	1727	781	1264	5626	690	482	559	61	631	491	374	475	22	192	332	38

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A2f	6	3	3	4	5	6	5	5	213	159	37	181	11	235	52	179	115	136	123	121	181
PM2.5	2A1	42	42	53	59	68	88	111	169	193	83	85	105	108	117	113	108	105	107	128	133	116
PM2.5	3Dc	138	151	155	92	125	147	113	119	137	137	133	122	126	139	135	133	140	138	135	132	107
PM10	2A1	75	75	95	106	123	159	199	305	348	150	153	188	195	210	204	194	189	193	231	240	208
TSP	3B1a	313	315	320	291	259	243	231	188	179	180	173	162	152	144	146	143	144	3	42	3	3
BC	3F	1015	1300	236	3	54	230	104	169	750	92	64	74	8	84	66	50	63	169	26	44	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	936700	831796	652719	564863	427187	232934	213281	97010	72845	20660	10670	11361	11417	9988	9729	9326	7667	6915	10560	14732	15635	12004	10888	69561	13468	1029	2397	2486	4126	3121	3688
Pb	1A2e	99213	84003	68793	53985	51214	50147	54382	50037	43945	33301	27823	35731	28827	23864	25754	23203	21055	10490	10870	7161	9496	10622	12821	10864	16013	8676	9213	7471	9378	5508	4032
Pb	1A2f	125011	2993	3303	3614	3924	3920	15704	11828	5487	3915	3921	38	43	44	1925	1939	196	329	260447	194758	42905	221794	11813	290529	62727	220849	141654	155654	124618	119797	223291
Pb	1A4bi	4577047	3253525	1907227	565597	855451	283231	687971	410306	187607	222708	225078	159778	262583	372944	292128	333274	383846	241905	218579	246266	341486	329241	400598	418505	521311	545903	528508	777086	1025100	1031883	925258
Pb	1A5a	46651	40348	21830	52448	38937	36499	31600	31597	33240	27039	25399	17753	27836	18360	6556	7184	19858	16214	18838	3107	16733	14385	730	21	32063	29674	30681	32044	33067	32385	31703
Pb	2A3	403818	411000	184000	210000	162400	171650	137600	162600	174000	135980	257000	230130	275000	252000	267342	267342	289640	265914	250200	191940	232250	294400	236800	287680	284014	303600	302200	256150	383494	281740	304356
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	8037854	5938554	3693667	2205465	2093764	1339489	1653131	1217604	976125	783740	836541	759117	945028	1183693	1049020	1027025	1089274	859999	1075000	966298	901467	1142067	923861	1335759	1143892	1317286	1213817	1442068	1794384	1663703	1690295
Cd	1A1a	177460	154390	124577	103330	67148	37502	34315	17520	13919	5168	2490	2369	2064	1670	1541	1451	1132	877	1308	2153	2130	1627	1607	8823	1668	160	339	253	399	299	351
Cd	1A2f	2120	93	80	68	55	55	213	161	809	55	55	3	4	4	29	30	7	9	3526	2617	578	2981	160	3904	844	2968	1904	2107	1693	1629	3013
Cd	1A4bi	69142	49693	32946	18113	22903	25235	35488	32655	29349	30121	31264	29026	33194	36295	30313	31917	38794	30507	33816	31446	31961	39078	42400	45830	143042	156471	176137	236441	403507	335844	336251
Cd	2A3	30881	31420	14100	16000	12420	13130	10522	12430	13310	10400	19640	17600	21020	19233	20444	20444	22150	20335	19131	14678	17760	22513	18110	21999	21720	23213	23110	19600	29326	21545	23274
Cd	3F	31852	30865	28156	38350	20814	29179	19797	35018	31522	30620	11916	15268	2777	44	640	3039	1223	1980	8812	1081	756	875	95	989	770	585	744	264	520	584
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	451739	385308	295915	269161	211790	190124	196605	192727	168389	154680	143049	144185	124362	132764	123898	120677	120635	109642	117083	109136	115292	131540	117631	128998	211330	222633	239949	298879	471833	394072	404704
Hg	1A2e	5964	5045	4127	3235	3072	3023	3343	3004	2668	2071	1825	2279	1861	1777	1708	1642	1545	905	954	678	888	970	1137	992	1354	942	1017	964	1153	844	718
Hg	1A3	11914	10345	5725	3741	3335	3440	3315	3484	2992	1947	2050	2252	2564	3285	3696	3790	3546	3736	3921	3808	4234	4534	3893	4077	4203	4335	4562	4609	4856	5034	4660
Hg	2C1	17100	14830	14390	14660	15210	15210	16060	19460	17235	19110	21790	23210	12320	21280	24330	25180	16220	23190	21270	10315	5817	7710	7620	4590	8304	10400	3112	11325	12072	9408	11240
Hg	3F	5067	4910	4479	6101	3311	4642	3150	5571	5015	4871	1896	2429	442	7	102	484	195	315	1402	172	120	139	15	157	122	93	118	42	83	93	81

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	2C1	2136	1853	1799	1832	1901	1901	2007	2432	2154	2388	2724	2901	1540	2660	3042	3148	2028	2899	2658	1280	727	964	953	574	1038	1295	389	1416	1509	1176	1405
PCB	1A2f	156164	2722	3458	4194	4930	4930	19890	14960	4930	4930	4930				2380	2380	170	340	330310	247058	54400	281350	14960	368560	79560	280160	179690	197370	157930	151810	283220
PCB	1A5a	56811	48450	24191	62937	44507	35142	29994	35062	35070	30110	29927	19902	29934	19905	7313	7993	23973	19213	22784	3234	19556	17681	851		40653	37626	38923	40653	41951	41086	40221
PCB	2C1	1779800	1544400	1499000	1527000	1584400	1584400	1673000	2026640	1795300	1990000	2270200	2419000	1283100	2216800	2535000	2623400	1690000	2415500	2215300	1067000	606000	804000	794000	478000	865000	1079400	324000	1179650	1257500	980000	1170800