Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3bi	5771	5327	2600	1721	1598	1668	1649	1976	1737	1124	1236	1370	1720	1813	1934	1940	1863	1989	2103	2124	2186	2325	2220	2502	2631	2915	3124	3188	3339	3440
NOx	1A3c	6707	5735	4763	4556	1810	1595	1548	1330	984	513	554	596	1357	721	997	1347	1684	1694	1558	853	868	801	863	553	46	374	780	629	341	427
NOx	3Da1	3696	3319	2480	1059	565	421	530	480	414	236	417	511	721	589	652	648	555	758	894	693	861	1079	1484	1774	2663	102	1999	2513	2857	2857
NMVOC	1A3	16002	31991	7601	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542	4542
NMVOC	1A3bi	5911	5521	2565	1699	1598	1681	1659	2000	1739	1063	1098	1193	1540	1640	1751	1772	1653	1699	1754	1695	1595	1642	1413	1401	1615	1752	1872	1808	1914	1924
NMVOC	2D3a	5234	5240	5231	5217	5223	5223	5201	5184	5191	5178	5164	5144	5114	5102	5077	4728	4732	4768	4749	4736	4726	4726	4711	4708	4702	4662	4612	4022	3808	3754
NMVOC	2H2	16703	14101	11415	13303	11308	13976	14721	14690	10377	6740	4371	8574	9106	10250	12050	13128	8131	5906	6392	5206	6849	6500	6293	7977	7631	6053	6805	5126	5486	5682
NMVOC	3B4gii	1530	1482	323	720	753	771	691	689	722	756	752	828	868	921	1025	1300	1300	1071	1169	1424	1474	1165	906	649	702	844	849	821	794	768
SOx	1A1a	102380	90523	71248	62319	47147	25595	23454	10550	7955	2155	1002	893	701	538	487	440	334	211	306	616	528	398	674	7127	408	87	217	34	47	40
SOx	1A2e	729	612	495	381	359	346	377	324	292	221	194	249	196	166	174	160	147	72	77	48	64	71	86	71	108	52	61	47	56	35
SOx	1A2f	1458	487	337	186	36	31	109	84	31	28	28	2	3	4	17	18	6	7	1751	1311	291	1492	81	1952	422	1485	953	1068	888	858
SOx	1A3	1000	696	12418	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
SOx	1A3aii(i)	24	18	12160	6	6	7	7	7	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A5a	289	265	152	337	256	259	196	201	203	161	151	105	153	107	37	40	120	96	115	18	99	88	5	0	201	186	192	201	207	203
NH3	3B4gii	1712	1659	362	805	843	854	765	763	800	837	833	916	951	1009	1123	1424	1424	1173	1266	1543	1597	1262	982	703	760	914	920	889	860	832
NH3	3Da2c	4438	4033	3651	3117	3028	2754	2850	1061	2122	1933	1719	1754	1769	1676	1612	1697	1738	1339	1314	1466	1510	1384	1279	1214	1322	1286	1334	1273	1273	1826
CO	1A3	145482	127527	67336	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863	29863
CO	1A3aii(i)	28401	21497	14593	7688	7761	7820	7866	7904	6711	797	797	39	33	257	137	660	77	412	60	30	137	27	55	77	55	122	90	230	60	111
CO	1A3bi	49481	46162	21385	14089	13298	14025	13813	16683	14474	8780	9049	9839	12738	13585	14534	14708	13697	14031	14407	13833	12945	13370	11313	11113	13001	13924	14722	14171	15022	15188
CO	3F	11431	19704	17975	24483	13288	18628	12639	22356	20124	19548	7607	9747	1773	25	409	1727	781	1264	5626	690	482	559	61	631	491	374	475	22	192	332

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2f	6	3	3	4	5	6	5	5	213	159	37	181	11	235	52	179	115	136	123	121
PM2.5	2A1	42	42	53	59	68	88	111	169	193	83	85	105	108	117	113	108	105	107	128	133
PM2.5	3Dc	138	151	155	92	125	147	113	119	137	137	133	122	126	139	135	133	140	138	135	132
PM10	2A1	75	75	95	106	123	159	199	305	348	150	153	188	195	210	204	194	189	193	231	240
PM10	3Dc	1060	1143	1171	749	964	1117	885	920	1036	1036	1015	945	974	1065	1038	1028	1079	1133	1102	1024
TSP	3B3	485	480	539	470	416	485	484	319	301	401	511	470	440	446	507	487	472	441	430	433
TSP	3Dc	1060	1143	1171	749	964	1117	885	920	1036	1036	1015	945	974	1065	1038	1028	1079	1133	1102	1024
BC	3F	1015	1300	236	3	54	230	104	169	750	92	64	74	8	84	66	50	63	169	26	44

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	936700	831796	652719	564863	427187	232934	213281	97010	72845	20660	10670	11361	11417	9988	9729	9326	7667	6915	10560	14732	15635	12004	10888	69561	13468	1029	2397	2486	4126	3121
Pb	1A2e	99213	84003	68793	53985	51214	50147	54382	50037	43945	33301	27823	35731	28827	23864	25754	23203	21055	10490	10870	7161	9496	10622	12821	10864	16013	8676	9213	7471	9378	5508
Pb	1A2f	125011	2993	3303	3614	3924	3920	15704	11828	5487	3915	3921	38	43	44	1925	1939	196	329	260447	194758	42905	221794	11813	290529	62727	220849	141654	155654	124618	119797
Pb	1A4ai	1605620	1148433	719204	624278	450896	466476	416171	358237	366240	251184	196958	210783	256604	416112	350052	287549	275464	221165	207935	219778	153512	154016	144792	155392	118491	112075	111274	117426	115003	103559
Pb	1A4bi	4577047	3253525	1907227	565597	855451	283231	687971	410306	187607	222708	225078	159778	262583	372944	292128	333274	383846	241905	218579	246266	341486	329241	400598	418505	521311	545903	528508	777086	1025100	1031883
Pb	1A5a	46651	40348	21830	52448	38937	36499	31600	31597	33240	27039	25399	17753	27836	18360	6556	7184	19858	16214	18838	3107	16733	14385	730	21	32063	29674	30681	32044	33067	32385
Pb	2A3	403818	411000	184000	210000	162400	171650	137600	162600	174000	135980	257000	230130	275000	252000	267342	267342	289640	265914	250200	191940	232250	294400	236800	287680	284014	303600	302200	256150	383494	281740
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	8037848	5938549	3693663	2205461	2093763	1339488	1653130	1217604	976125	783740	836540	759116	945029	1183692	1049020	1027025	1089273	859998	1075000	966297	901466	1142067	923861	1335758	1151425	1325036	1221758	1450550	1803513	1673395
Cd	1A1a	177460	154390	124577	103330	67148	37502	34315	17520	13919	5168	2490	2369	2064	1670	1541	1451	1132	877	1308	2153	2130	1627	1607	8823	1668	160	339	253	399	299
Cd	1A2f	2120	93	80	68	55	55	213	161	809	55	55	3	4	4	29	30	7	9	3526	2617	578	2981	160	3904	844	2968	1904	2107	1693	1629
Cd	1A4bi	69142	49693	32946	18113	22903	25235	35488	32655	29349	30121	31264	29026	33194	36295	30313	31917	38794	30507	33816	31446	31961	39078	42400	45830	143042	156471	176137	236441	403507	335844
Cd	2A3	30881	31420	14100	16000	12420	13130	10522	12430	13310	10400	19640	17600	21020	19233	20444	20444	22150	20335	19131	14678	17760	22513	18110	21999	21720	23213	23110	19600	29326	21545
Cd	3F	31852	30865	28156	38350	20814	29179	19797	35018	31522	30620	11916	15268	2777	44	640	3039	1223	1980	8812	1081	756	875	95	989	770	585	744	264	520	584
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	451730	385302	295910	269157	211789	190122	196604	192726	168388	154679	143049	144185	124366	132764	123898	120677	120634	109642	117083	109136	115292	131540	117630	128998	212867	224215	241569	300610	473695	396050
Hg	1A2e	5964	5045	4127	3235	3072	3023	3343	3004	2668	2071	1825	2279	1861	1777	1708	1642	1545	905	954	678	888	970	1137	992	1354	942	1017	964	1153	844
Hg	1A3	11200	9700	5200	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900	4900
Hg	3F	5067	4910	4479	6101	3311	4642	3150	5571	5015	4871	1896	2429	442	7	102	484	195	315	1402	172	120	139	15	157	122	93	118	42	83	93

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PCB	1A2f	156164	2722	3458	4194	4930	4930	19890	14960	4930	4930	4930				2380	2380	170	340	330310	247058	54400	281350	14960	368560	79560	280160	179690	197370	157930	151810
PCB	1A5a	56811	48450	24191	62937	44507	35142	29994	35062	35070	30110	29927	19902	29934	19905	7313	7993	23973	19213	22784	3234	19556	17681	851		40653	37626	38923	40653	41951	41086