Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3bi	5771	5255	2524	1646	1598	1663	1643	1972	1737	1123	1235	1367	1717	1809	1903	1932	1851	1970	2078	2094	2149	2279	2168	2436	2552	2810	3028	3087
NOx	1A3c	8057	6886	5719	4519	1812	1620	1553	1303	992	495	556	617	1354	737	967	1328	1688	1686	1564	841	840	779	839	539	60	356	771	593
NMVOC	1A3bi	5911	5516	2560	1683	1597	1676	1653	1996	1738	1062	1097	1190	1537	1637	1722	1765	1642	1684	1734	1671	1568	1609	1380	1364	1566	1689	1815	1751
NMVOC	2H2	16703	14101	11415	13303	11308	13976	14721	14690	10377	6740	4371	8574	9106	10250	12050	13128	8131	5906	6392	4531	6849	6500	6293	7977	7631	6053	6781	5126
NMVOC	3B4gi	1002	971	657	471	493	505	452	451	473	495	493	542	568	603	671	851	857	701	765	915	939	876	780	672	776	469	5689	596
SOx	1A2e	759	638	517	399	336	366	395	339	299	225	199	253	200	170	181	165	152	76	81	50	68	75	89	75	110	53	61	47
SOx	1A2f	1427	442	307	173	39	32	109	84	31	28	28	2	3	4	17	18	7	8	1752	1311	293	1493	82	1952	422	1485	953	1046
SOx	1A4ci	600	4155	3790	259	141	77	86	37	50	11	14	20	6	3	11	7	5	2	2	2	2	5	6	18	16	25	25	41
NH3	3B4f	10	10	12	12	16	18	17	11048	17	19	21	23	21	23	21	20	19	16	17	15	15	13	12	11	11	11	10	2687
NH3	3B4gii	1976	1915	417	929	972	985	883	31	923	965	961	1057	1097	1164	1296	1643	1655	1353	1461	1780	1842	1456	1133	811	878	1055	1061	1180
NH3	3Da2c	4438	4033	3651	3117	3028	2754	2850	1061	2122	1933	1719	1754	1769	1676	1612	1697	1738	1339	1314	1466	1510	1384	1279	1214	1322	1286	1334	1273
NH3	3Da3	530	751	5659	7659	7635	8771	8047	7360	8232	7980	7941	8098	8657	8130	7746	7930	11839		5930	6391	6398	5785	5109	4491	4694	4423	4468	4421
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	85280	82258	82277	77863	76747	76240	73992	79277	75925	71374	67254	68439	70748	66706	64666	66077	70263	49512	54975	58316	60344	57917	55021	52974	57532	54891	53920	51775
CO	1A3bi	49476	46139	21362	13968	13295	13986	13766	16646	14467	8774	9035	9817	12711	13553	14295	14647	13606	13902	14240	13637	12725	13102	11052	10817	12610	13422	14274	13720
CO	1A4ai	11410	8928	5944	4455	3212	3319	2994	2561	2614	1805	1436	1566	1965	458	2855	2348	2253	1751	1681	1915	1367	1532	1490	1378	1221	1063	1032	1138
CO	3F	2713	2449	2412	2742	1613	1921	1107	1760	1525	1327	1078	1672	1474	462	1664	1437	1430	777	2053	1261	1254	1452	931	1789	1789	1760	2412	2500

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2f	6	3	3	4	5	7	5	5	213	159	38	181	12	235	52	179	116	127
PM2.5	3Dc	138	151	155	92	125	147	113	119	137	137	133	122	126	139	135	133	133	132
PM10	3Dc	1060	1143	1171	749	964	1117	885	920	1036	1036	1015	945	974	1065	1038	1028	1028	1024
TSP	2A2	373	346	479	267	277	382	427	303	431	128	263	268	250	366	475	264	262	491
TSP	3Dc	1060	1143	1171	749	964	1117	885	920	1036	1036	1015	945	974	1065	1038	1028	1028	1024

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	936908	831794	652717	565021	427186	232933	213280	97009	72844	20660	10670	11492	11416	9987	9752	9366	7703	6933	33407	61268	56575	44826	40234	47677	50027	53621	52355	50201
Pb	1A2e	99264	84047	68831	54016	45081	50182	54412	50063	43956	33308	27830	35738	28834	23871	25765	23213	21064	10497	10876	7164	9502	10628	12827	10871	16018	8677	9215	7472
Pb	1A2f	128469	2897	3241	3585	3929	3923	15704	11828	5487	3915	3921	38	43	44	1925	1940	198	331	260448	194758	42908	221795	11814	290529	62727	220850	141655	155617
Pb	1A4ai	1605620	1257097	830590	624278	450896	466476	416171	358237	366240	251184	196958	210783	256603	416111	350052	287548	275463	221165	207935	219778	153512	154016	144792	155392	118491	112076	111274	117410
Pb	1A4bi	4577047	4396712	2261882	565597	855451	283231	687971	410306	187607	222708	225078	159778	262583	372944	292128	333274	383846	241905	218579	246266	341486	329241	400598	418505	521311	545903	528505	776957
Pb	1A4ci	87006	624089	578314	37644	22673	12809	14296	8768	6784	938	1178	2424	473	1017	1781	1511	1513	673	635	900	1138	1207	1779	3653	3681	4758	5192	7796
Pb	5C1biii	11253		12468	13125	13814	14545	15308	16114	16963	17856	18792	19784	20826	21923	23076	24292	25569	26914	28328	29822	31391	45558	45899	45799	43505	41329	39265	37200
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	9657090	7680337	4692138	2204396	2086898	1338941	1652419	1216100	974660	782047	836775	760044	947054	1184459	1051600	1029001	1091417	861186	1107090	1018937	946954	1178449	956218	1318768	1160058	1352568	1246643	1472431
Cd	1A1a	177515	154389	124577	103372	67148	37502	34315	17520	13919	5168	2490	2404	2064	1670	1546	1461	1141	882	4322	8402	7673	6087	5513	6367	6434	6569	6548	6285
Cd	3F	35789	35789	31823	36176	21280	25342	14606	23214	20119	17508	14219	22054	19442	6094	21957	18958	18862	10253	27084	16637	16540	19152	12284	23601	23601	23214	31823	32984
Cd	5C1biii	1452		1609	1694	1782	1877	1975	2079	2189	2304	2425	2553	2687	2829	2978	3134	3299	3473	3655	3848	4050	5878	5922	5910	5614	5333	5066	4800
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	415923	372422	294568	251841	193146	167288	176506	166254	146068	133737	139185	144996	133916	132469	139467	131552	133302	113535	134226	127139	131667	149466	129206	144809	234681	247071	272888	331241
Hg	1A1a	144106	133044	101756	88045	76888	44440	41529	21444	16501	7661	6283	7234	5979	6159	6299	6499	5051	5674	10347	16396	15770	13487	13192	12741	13974	14722	14375	14170
Hg	1A4ci	4593	34676	32659	1931	1220	729	757	358	301	29	32	48	18	37	113	72	63	27	36	38	45	63	85	196	179	259	264	416
Hg	3F	5694	5694	5063	5755	3385	4032	2324	3693	3201	2785	2262	3509	3093	969	3493	3016	3001	1631	4309	2647	2631	3047	1954	3755	3755	3693	5063	5247
Hg	5C1biii	7804		8647	9103	9580	10088	10617	11176	11765	12384	13033	13721	14444	15205	16005	16847	17733	18666	19647	20683	21771	31596	31833	31764	30173	28664	27232	25800

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	5C1biii	7260		8044	8468	8912	9384	9876	10396	10944	11520	12124	12764	13436	14144	14888	15672	16496	17364	18276	19240	20252	29392	29612	29548	28068	26664	25332	24000
HCB	5C1biii	18150		20110	21170	22280	23460	24690	25990	27360	28800	30310	31910	33590	35360	37220	39180	41240	43410	45690	48100	50630	73480	74030	73870	70170	66660	63330	60000
PCB	1A4ci	95498	734329	694673	39531	25016	14966	14979	4954	4966	15	19	28	8	6	1703	1023	852	341	407	391	381	985	1126	3506	3165	5034	4925	8164