Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MD Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NMVOC	3B4giv	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1185	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548	1548
NMVOC	3De	1490	1477	1472	1530	1475	1396	1477	1485	1477	1431	1463	1473	4	1370	1447	1398	1330	1335	1335	1370	1377	1374	1397	1428	1429	1429
SOx	1A4ai	11038	5130	852	4059	2976	3031	2686	2279	2436	1672	1307	1392	1700	2708	2301	1897	1808	1439	1343	1396	996	998	917	1003	725	725
NH3	1A4bi	11	6	1	65	74	122	153	155	150	152	156	150	167	169	149	151	190	153	173	154	151	191	209	227	756	756
NH3	3B4giii	845	828	779	679	712	727	668	675	716	766	756	785	808	731	859	1011	982	574	558	638	684	569	427	295	535	535
NH3	3B4giv	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1318	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823	1823
CO	1A4ai	11502	5392	977	4310	3167	3224	2903	2447	2605	1801	1430	1545	1963	3239	2853	2349	2254	1747	1675	1921	1369	1531	1484	1382	1226	1226

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM10	3B4giv	443	443	339	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443	443
PM10	3De	2654	2672	6	2485	2625	2536	2413	2422	2421	2485	2499	2492	2534	2591	2593	2593
TSP	3B4giv	543	543	439	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543	543
BC	1A5a	12	29	20	20	18	22	25	23	22	4	12	4	3	1	0	0
BC	3F	9	11	2038	0	0	2	1	1	6	1	1	0	0	1	1	1
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	547	646	2613	612	585	638	611	566	601	630	652	635	662	556	681	681

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	956507	772436	586285	238043	72141	64176	59194	43539	34005	20632	10641	11465	11403	9973	9742	12020	9653	8112	35107	65292	59954	47319	39930	47571	49623	49623
Pb	1A2gviii	291509	269817	85612	114838	75798	67672	67649	56030	47317	31476	27465	35559	31460	23696	31168	25535	23165	12284	272346	185226	169255	235454	174545	303079	247849	247849
Pb	1A4ai	1625904	745665	107971	601626	443518	451428	401830	341261	364841	250028	195096	207684	255677	414957	348700	286810	275038	220106	206026	217465	151344	152619	143326	155204	118406	118406
Pb	1A4bi	4735727	2636819	515069	564834	855457	283237	684209	410317	187618	222721	224310	153292	262604	369807	292143	331569	383869	241928	218602	244708	339849	327723	400636	418538	521342	521342
Pb	1A4ci	73913	525591	514833	32144	21175	13353	13206	5294	4358	23848	226	1036	279	1041	1840	1598	1675	841	780	1024	1303	1668	1934	3794	3890	3890
Pb	2A3	709240	679575	508878	502350	301274	285158	220711	266560	257499	193205	366979	342159	397698	359142	359652	393958	380834	351611	297500	233801	277134	342958	243287	399211	399211	399211
Pb	2C1	6084742	5412130	5268564	5044912	4927060	4663475	4646455	5601213	6014592	6386948	7098706	8084192	4115841	7275084	8291459	8912376	6017821	8643975	7834269	3972049	2204642	2864921	3114941	1672703	2385129	2385129
Cd	1A1a	179867	141037	106489	60137	17542	16027	14719	10778	8454	5177	2500	2413	2069	1675	1550	2351	1796	1277	4891	9750	8810	6931	5588	6356	6394	6394
Cd	1A4ai	21854	10030	1465	9540	7438	7545	7624	6064	6380	4472	3735	4271	5296	12239	8913	6969	7265	6486	6727	10207	5654	5435	6358	5768	7802	7802
Cd	1A4bi	54650	30428	5956	18105	22904	25236	35446	32655	29349	30122	30888	28952	33196	34776	30313	31087	38796	30509	33818	30687	31165	38336	42407	45834	143046	143046
Cd	2G	85870	86810	81150	83040	75490	66990	91260	89640	117180	133890	110390	104070	66250	45210	40830	44320	28030	23430	338000	26470	39350	36480	30750	19090	14040	14040
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	435474	361882	271793	241023	174779	164235	192115	188874	211088	219781	208873	205058	159902	159214	151347	159636	137268	132235	450133	120605	125203	136217	125834	125127	221918	221918
Hg	1A4ai	96912	45027	7614	36057	26400	26841	23945	20411	21734	15060	11909	12808	17220	26611	25636	21376	20218	14615	13885	15042	11924	15319	14531	12269	10283	10283
Hg	1A4ci	7275	34859	33824	2972	2265	1955	1750	1367	1091	1879	431	457	480	481	552	411	381	291	322	293	336	351	376	513	523	523

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A4ai	2467	1134	168	920	680	692	620	524	560	385	301	323	398	662	553	454	437	352	333	367	250	253	244	256	212	212
HCB	1A4ai	7522	3449	498	3344	2622	2659	2717	2149	2258	1586	1332	1531	1899	4489	3241	2526	2647	2378	2479	3814	2094	2007	2369	2136	2941	2941
HCB	1A4bi	22585	12575	2456	7141	9083	9783	13838	12673	11329	11637	11932	11165	12831	13474	11735	12044	15022	11792	13055	11862	12077	14826	16414	17736	55091	55091