Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A2gvii	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	37	36	35	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	19	7	7	8	17	19	14	19	15	16	14
NMVOC	1A3ai(i)	14	15	15	15	16	16	16	17	19	20	23	21	20	19	16	18	20	22	18	14	15	16	17	17	16	16	16	15	15	16	6	10
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	32	41	45	39	38	35	26	55	33	41	57	66	58	59	58	55	55	57	59	63	64	62	70	66	61	67	64	64	60	60	50	52
NMVOC	1A3dii	11	14	16	14	13	12	9	19	11	14	19	21	19	19	18	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	16	15	16	16	17	16	16	13	14
NMVOC	2D3d	13	13	13	14	17	17	20	18	17	17	17	19	19	23	22	68	27	24	24	23	21	33	27	28	26	25	24	13	10	8	7	19
SOx	1A1a	26	21	23	26	27	27	30	31	30	30	31	32	29	24	22	22	4	4	4	4	3	4	5	5	5	8	3	5	3	1	1	3
SOx	1A2gvii	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3ai(i)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bi	19	22	26	24	24	20	18	14	13	9	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	5	6	7	6	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	11	12	13	12	11	7	6	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	7	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4ai	8	7	7	7	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	3Da1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
CO	1A2gvii	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	5	5	7	17	22	19	28	24	29	32
CO	1A3ai(i)	900	918	965	946	981	1016	1030	1089	1220	1290	1445	1340	1232	1175	1032	1121	1240	1361	1146	905	919	998	1057	1067	1028	1034	986	962	971	983	409	633
CO	1A3di(i)	100	128	139	122	119	110	80	172	102	126	176	204	177	181	176	168	167	173	178	187	192	186	211	197	182	201	194	197	185	185	153	159
CO	1A3dii	35	44	49	43	42	38	27	61	35	43	60	67	59	59	56	53	51	51	50	51	50	49	55	50	46	50	50	53	51	51	42	43
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2777	3002	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1504	1433	1550	1634	1617	1582	1567	1491	1488	1509	1513	836	1068
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2777	3002	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1504	1433	1550	1634	1617	1582	1567	1491	1488	1509	1513	836	1068
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	2777	3002	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1504	1433	1550	1634	1617	1582	1567	1491	1488	1509	1513	836	1068

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2gvii	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	2A5b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1
PM2.5	2G	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	2D3b	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	16	23	19	12	13	15	14	14
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	16	23	19	12	13	15	14	14
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	16	23	19	12	13	15	14	14
TSP	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
BC	1A2gvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3biii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3di(i)	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	6	7	7	6	6	5	3	3	3	2	3
BC	1A3dii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A3bi	1296320	1022505	809891	637719	457933	333830	243621	171053	116530	79648	83831	24965	17086	7544	10	9	9	9	8	7	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4
Pb	1A3bii	104530	78625	56157	45186	33822	25394	18173	12811	9152	6518	7125	2169	1516	707	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3biv	64748	54133	43968	40794	35230	30859	27786	24785	22330	20513	28971	11535	10309	5972	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548517	410770	310165	229474	168084	126534	140027	57768	48068	32642	17926	13028	15847	18709	19235	15743	15436	16693	17499	16870	16676	15752	12245	15558	14093	13125	6526	6250
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548517	410770	310165	229474	168084	126534	140027	57768	48068	32642	17926	13028	15847	18709	19235	15743	15436	16693	17499	16870	16676	15752	12245	15558	14093	13125	6526	6250
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548517	410770	310165	229474	168084	126534	140027	57768	48068	32642	17926	13028	15847	18709	19235	15743	15436	16693	17499	16870	16676	15752	12245	15558	14093	13125	6526	6250
Cd	1A1a	269	273	299	332	357	355	381	424	401	404	416	438	393	332	300	297	150	204	195	187	171	201	199	167	178	190	193	316	144	15	21	223
Cd	2G	81	90	101	96	99	98	99	95	95	97	92	91	93	91	89	77	88	93	93	81	72	77	84	85	81	77	66	74	75	71	50	48
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	383	400	442	467	497	495	523	561	538	545	552	574	532	469	435	419	283	341	334	312	282	320	329	297	300	307	296	424	253	117	98	298
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	383	400	442	467	497	495	523	561	538	545	552	574	532	469	435	419	283	341	334	312	282	320	329	297	300	307	296	424	253	117	98	298
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	383	400	442	467	497	495	523	561	538	545	552	574	532	469	435	419	283	341	334	312	282	320	329	297	300	307	296	424	253	117	98	298