Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2gvii	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	37	36	35	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	19	7	7	8	17	19	14	19	15	16
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	32	41	45	39	38	35	26	55	33	41	57	66	58	59	58	55	55	57	59	63	64	62	70	66	61	67	64	64	60	60	50
NMVOC	1A3dii	11	14	16	14	13	12	9	19	11	14	19	21	19	19	18	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	16	15	16	16	17	16	16	13
NMVOC	2D3d	13	13	13	14	17	17	20	18	17	17	17	19	19	23	22	68	27	24	24	23	21	33	27	28	26	25	24	13	10	8	7
SOx	1A1a	26	21	23	26	27	27	30	31	30	30	31	32	29	24	22	22	4	4	4	4	3	4	5	5	5	8	3	5	3	1	1
SOx	1A2gvii	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bi	18	20	24	22	22	18	17	14	12	9	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	5	6	7	7	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	12	13	14	14	12	9	7	2	2	2	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	7	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4ai	8	7	7	7	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	2G	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
CO	1A2gvii	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	5	5	7	17	22	19	28	24	29
CO	1A3di(i)	100	128	139	122	119	110	80	172	102	126	176	204	177	181	176	168	167	173	178	187	192	186	211	197	182	201	194	197	185	185	153
CO	1A3dii	35	44	49	43	42	38	27	61	35	43	60	67	59	59	56	53	51	51	50	51	50	49	55	50	46	50	50	53	51	51	42

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2gvii	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	2A5b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
PM2.5	2G	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
PM10	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
PM10	2D3b	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
PM10	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	22	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	15	13
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	22	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	15	13
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	27	28	26	26	24	24	24	24	22	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	15	13
TSP	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
TSP	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	44	45	41	42	39	43	43	44	37	39	33	32	29	26	28	51	38	21	24	33	31
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	44	45	41	42	39	43	43	44	37	39	33	32	29	26	28	51	38	21	24	33	31
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	44	45	41	42	39	43	43	44	37	39	33	32	29	26	28	51	38	21	24	33	31
BC	1A2gvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3biii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3di(i)	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	6	7	7	6	6	5	3	3	3	2
BC	1A3dii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3bi	1296319	1022505	809890	637719	457934	333830	243621	171052	116530	79647	83831	24965	17086	7544	10	9	9	9	8	7	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
Pb	1A3bii	104530	78625	56157	45186	33822	25394	18173	12811	9152	6518	7125	2169	1516	707	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3biv	64748	54133	43968	40793	35230	30859	27786	24785	22330	20513	28971	11535	10309	5972	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1492153	1179952	933268	745872	548734	410987	310403	229670	168321	126808	140236	57990	48262	32883	18177	13256	16114	18967	19502	15986	15862	16773	17557	16967	16760	15831	12297	15594	14130	13142	6533
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1492153	1179952	933268	745872	548734	410987	310403	229670	168321	126808	140236	57990	48262	32883	18177	13256	16114	18967	19502	15986	15862	16773	17557	16967	16760	15831	12297	15594	14130	13142	6533
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	1492153	1179952	933268	745872	548734	410987	310403	229670	168321	126808	140236	57990	48262	32883	18177	13256	16114	18967	19502	15986	15862	16773	17557	16967	16760	15831	12297	15594	14130	13142	6533
Cd	1A1a	269	273	299	332	357	355	381	424	401	404	416	438	393	332	300	297	150	204	195	187	171	201	199	167	178	190	193	316	144	15	21