Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2gvii	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	37	36	35	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	19	7	7	8	17	19	14	19	15
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	32	41	45	39	38	35	26	55	33	41	57	66	58	59	58	55	55	57	59	63	64	62	70	66	61	67	64	64	60	59
NMVOC	2D3d	11	11	11	11	13	14	16	14	15	15	15	15	16	21	19	57	24	33	33	32	30	48	42	44	47	43	44	25	25	23
SOx	1A1a	26	21	23	26	27	27	30	31	30	30	31	32	29	24	22	22	4	4	4	4	3	4	5	5	5	8	3	5	3	1
SOx	1A2gvii	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bi	19	22	26	24	24	20	18	14	13	9	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	5	6	7	6	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	11	12	13	12	11	7	6	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	7	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4ai	8	7	7	7	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	2G	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
CO	1A3di(i)	100	128	139	122	119	110	80	172	102	126	176	204	177	181	176	168	167	173	178	187	192	186	211	197	182	201	194	197	185	183
CO	1A3dii	30	40	49	43	42	38	27	61	35	43	60	67	59	59	56	53	51	51	50	51	50	49	55	50	46	50	50	53	51	51
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2773	2998	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1503	1434	1549	1634	1617	1583	1568	1489	1489	1509	1513
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2773	2998	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1503	1434	1549	1634	1617	1583	1568	1489	1489	1509	1513
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	2773	2998	3283	3058	2992	2841	2701	2675	2606	2631	2699	2534	2322	2245	2042	2092	2096	2181	1872	1503	1434	1549	1634	1617	1583	1568	1489	1489	1509	1513

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	1A2gvii	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
PM2.5	2A5b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
PM2.5	2G	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	19	19	18	17	16	15	15	14	14	12	12	11	10	9	9	10	8	7	7	7
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	19	19	18	17	16	15	15	14	14	12	12	11	10	9	9	10	8	7	7	7
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	19	19	18	17	16	15	15	14	14	12	12	11	10	9	9	10	8	7	7	7
PM10	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
PM10	2D3b	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
PM10	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	27	28	25	25	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	16
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	27	28	25	25	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	16
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	27	28	25	25	24	24	24	24	21	21	19	18	17	15	15	22	18	12	13	16
TSP	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
TSP	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
TSP	2G	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	43	44	40	42	39	42	43	43	36	39	33	32	29	25	28	51	38	21	24	36
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	43	44	40	42	39	42	43	43	36	39	33	32	29	25	28	51	38	21	24	36
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	43	44	40	42	39	42	43	43	36	39	33	32	29	25	28	51	38	21	24	36
BC	1A2gvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0
BC	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3biii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3di(i)	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	6	7	7	6	6	5	3	3	2
BC	1A3dii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	1296320	1022505	809891	637719	457934	333830	243621	171052	116530	79648	83831	24965	17086	7544	10	9	9	9	8	7	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5
Pb	1A3bii	104530	78625	56157	45186	33822	25394	18173	12811	9152	6518	7125	2169	1516	707	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3biv	64748	54133	43968	40793	35230	30859	27786	24785	22330	20513	28971	11535	10309	5972	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pb	2G	7405	7406	7406	7405	7405	7405	7405	7561	7562	7562	7562	7170	7797	7796	7874	3170	7560	9755	10226	7168	7905	8266	8485	8422	8156	8344	2809	7309	7513	7277
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548518	410767	310159	229464	168072	126520	140008	57749	48047	32623	17908	13010	15830	18695	19219	15717	15687	16664	17477	16851	16674	15746	12231	15559	14081	13112
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548518	410767	310159	229464	168072	126520	140008	57749	48047	32623	17908	13010	15830	18695	19219	15717	15687	16664	17477	16851	16674	15746	12231	15559	14081	13112
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	1492017	1179801	933065	745673	548518	410767	310159	229464	168072	126520	140008	57749	48047	32623	17908	13010	15830	18695	19219	15717	15687	16664	17477	16851	16674	15746	12231	15559	14081	13112
Hg	1A1a	1483	1595	1747	1932	2085	2077	2218	2491	2351	2363	2447	2578	2318	1956	1770	1752	1288	1765	1680	1605	1484	1744	1709	2340	284	2201	148	4063	120	419