Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2gvii	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	37	36	35	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	19	7	7	8	17	19	14
NMVOC	1A2gvii	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	5	6	7	17	22	19
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	32	41	45	39	38	35	26	55	33	41	57	66	58	59	58	55	55	57	59	71	63	62	70	66	60	67	64	64
NMVOC	1A3dii	11	14	16	14	13	12	9	19	11	14	19	21	19	19	18	17	16	16	16	19	16	16	18	16	15	16	16	17
NMVOC	2D3d	1	1	1	1	2	6	8	7	7	7	7	8	8	13	11	49	17	20	19	15	18	36	35	26	21	17	39	23
NMVOC	2D3h	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3	4	22	22	22	20	24	26	5	12	18	12	7	8	4	5	17	20	13	15
SOx	1A1a	26	21	23	26	27	27	30	31	30	30	31	32	29	24	22	22	4	4	4	4	3	4	5	5	5	8	3	5
SOx	1A2gvii	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	3	3	2
SOx	1A3bi	19	22	25	23	23	20	18	14	13	9	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	4	5	6	6	6	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	10	11	12	11	10	7	5	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	7	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A2gvii	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	5	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	5	4	4	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
CO	1A3di(i)	100	128	139	122	119	110	80	172	102	126	176	204	177	181	176	168	167	173	178	214	189	186	210	197	181	201	194	197
CO	1A3dii	35	44	49	43	42	38	27	61	35	43	60	67	59	59	56	53	51	51	50	60	50	49	55	50	46	50	50	53
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2763	2996	3277	3053	2987	2837	2697	2671	2603	2628	2697	2528	2317	2242	2039	2091	2096	2184	1869	1507	1428	1546	1639	1622	1586	1561	1475	1479

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
PM2.5	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
PM2.5	2A5b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
PM2.5	2G	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
PM10	2A5b	7	7	6	7	6	8	8	9	6	8	6	6	2	5	5	14	7	3
PM10	2G	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	25	25	23	24	22	23	23	24	20	21	18	17	13	15	15	24	16	12
TSP	1A2gvii	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
TSP	2G	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	43	43	39	41	38	43	44	46	36	40	33	32	21	28	28	58	36	22
BC	1A2gvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
BC	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3biii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
BC	1A3dii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi	1296319	1022505	809890	637714	457928	333826	243616	171047	116526	79645	83828	24964	17085	7544	10	9	9	9	8	7	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5
Pb	1A3bii	104530	78625	56157	45186	33821	25394	18172	12810	9151	6518	7125	2169	1516	707	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3biv	64748	54133	43967	40793	35230	30858	27786	24784	22329	20512	28970	11534	10309	5972	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pb	2G	7401	7402	7402	7402	7402	7402	7402	7559	7559	7559	7559	7167	7794	7794	7872	3167	7559	9754	10223	7166	7903	8263	8483	8420	8154	8342	2807	7307
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1491797	1179575	932836	745435	548263	410493	309879	229175	167763	126202	139675	57445	47728	32294	17580	12686	15491	18719	18859	15211	15218	16238	17005	16385	16217	15385	11935	15205
Hg	1A1a	1483	1595	1747	1932	2085	2077	2218	2491	2351	2363	2447	2578	2318	1956	1770	1752	1288	1765	1680	1605	1484	1744	1709	2340	284	2201	148	4063
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1808	1928	2091	2270	2423	2410	2555	2821	2682	2697	2778	2910	2655	2297	2109	2090	1624	2100	2018	1937	1811	2064	2041	2676	612	2535	471	4385

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A1a	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	6	0	2
DIOX	1A2gvii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0