Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2gvii	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	38	37	36	35	34	32	31	29	27	25	23	21	19	7	7	8	17	19	14
NOx	1A3biii	119	130	146	141	129	121	122	112	108	100	96	100	93	99	97	96	94	139	87	81	73	72	74	67	52	40	34	28
NMVOC	1A2gvii	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	5	6	7	17	22	19
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	32	41	45	39	38	35	26	55	33	41	57	66	58	59	58	55	55	57	59	71	63	62	70	66	60	67	64	64
NMVOC	1A3dii	11	14	16	14	13	12	9	19	11	14	19	21	19	19	18	17	16	16	16	19	16	16	18	16	15	16	16	17
NMVOC	2D3d	1	1	1	1	2	6	8	7	7	7	7	8	8	13	11	49	17	20	19	15	18	36	35	26	21	17	39	23
NMVOC	2D3h	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3	4	22	22	22	20	24	26	5	12	18	12	7	8	4	5	17	20	13	15
SOx	1A1a	23	20	22	25	26	26	29	31	30	30	31	32	29	24	22	22	3	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	5	7	2	4
SOx	1A2gvii	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	3	3	2
SOx	1A3bi	19	22	25	23	23	20	18	14	13	9	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	4	5	6	6	6	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	10	11	12	11	10	7	5	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	7	5	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A2gvii	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	5	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	5	4	4	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
CO	1A3di(i)	100	128	139	122	119	110	80	172	102	126	176	204	177	181	176	168	167	173	178	214	189	186	210	197	181	201	194	197
CO	1A3dii	35	44	49	43	42	38	27	61	35	43	60	67	59	59	56	53	51	51	50	60	50	49	55	50	46	50	50	53
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	2761	2994	3275	3051	2985	2834	2695	2668	2600	2625	2694	2524	2314	2239	2036	2088	2093	2194	1866	1504	1426	1543	1637	1619	1583	1558	1473	1476

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
PM2.5	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
PM2.5	2A5b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	1	0
PM2.5	2G	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	17	17	16	16	15	14	14	16	12	12	11	10	11	9	8	9	8	7
PM10	1A1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A2gvii	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	1A3biv	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bvi	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
PM10	1A3bvii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
PM10	2A5b	6	6	5	6	5	7	8	8	5	7	5	5	18	4	4	13	7	5
PM10	2G	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	25	25	23	23	22	22	22	26	19	20	17	16	29	15	14	23	16	13
TSP	1A2gvii	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
TSP	1A3bvi	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2
TSP	1A3bvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
TSP	1A3dii	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
TSP	2A5b	21	20	18	20	17	24	25	27	17	23	17	16	60	14	15	42	23	15
TSP	2G	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	41	41	37	39	36	41	42	47	33	38	31	30	73	26	26	54	33	25
BC	1A2gvii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
BC	1A3bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3biii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
BC	1A3bvi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BC	1A3dii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A3bi	1296319	1022505	809890	637714	457928	333826	243616	171047	116526	79645	83828	24964	17085	7544	10	9	9	9	8	7	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5
Pb	1A3bii	104530	78625	56157	45186	33821	25394	18172	12810	9151	6518	7125	2169	1516	707	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3biv	64748	54133	43967	40793	35230	30858	27786	24784	22329	20512	28970	11534	10309	5972	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pb	1A3bvi	5174	5860	6696	6335	6554	6427	6528	6254	6154	6218	5951	6053	6111	6190	6107	5953	6117	8023	6266	5765	5203	5521	6092	6059	5638	5311	5356	5249
Pb	2G	7401	7401	7401	7401	7401	7401	7401	7558	7558	7558	7558	7166	7793	7793	7871	3167	7558	9753	10223	7166	7903	8263	8483	8420	8154	8342	2807	7307
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	1491790	1179569	932831	745429	548258	410488	309874	229170	167758	126197	139670	57441	47723	32289	17575	12681	15487	20240	18855	15207	15214	16235	17002	16382	16215	15382	11932	15202
Cd	1A3bvi	26	29	33	32	33	32	33	31	31	31	30	30	30	31	30	29	30	39	31	28	25	27	30	30	28	26	26	26
Cd	2G	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	6	14	19	19	14	15	16	16	16	15	16	5	14
Hg	1A1a	1483	1595	1747	1932	2085	2077	2218	2491	2351	2363	2447	2578	2318	1956	1770	1752	1288	1765	1680	1605	1484	1744	1709	2340	284	2201	148	4063
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1734	1860	2026	2204	2362	2351	2492	2763	2621	2637	2719	2854	2595	2234	2049	2030	1569	2062	1969	1887	1758	2021	1996	2630	571	2491	427	4342

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	6	0	2
PCB	1A3bii	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0