Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MC      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NMVOC	1A3bii	41	45	48	42	41	37	34	29	26	25	22	20	19	18	17	15	14	14	12	11	10	12	12	13	9	7
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	11	14	14	12	12	12	10	17	13	17	24	30	26	29	31	31	31	35	39	44	44	42	48	46	41	45
NMVOC	2D3d	1	1	1	1	2	5	7	6	6	6	5	6	6	10	10	48	11	18	18	15	15	17	23	10	20	15
NMVOC	2D3h	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	26	5	12	18	12	7	8	4	5	5	20
SOx	1A3ai(i)	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SOx	1A3bi	19	21	22	28	26	19	15	13	12	12	7	5	4	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	5	6	6	6	4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	7	8	8	8	5	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	5	5	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4bi	69	60	58	59	56	35	38	35	36	36	33	31	34	36	33	33	30	24	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3
NH3	1A3di(i)	185	236	254	222	217	201	148	312	189	237	332	390	337	350	346	332	328	345	355	421	383	376	425	400	363	402
NH3	1A3dii	62	79	86	76	74	68	48	108	62	76	106	120	105	105	100	95	94	95	94	114	97	97	110	101	94	104
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	62	79	87	77	76	70	52	112	66	81	111	126	110	111	106	100	99	100	98	118	100	100	113	105	98	107
CO	1A3bii	306	338	358	308	302	274	246	211	191	178	156	144	137	127	116	104	97	92	79	73	67	76	81	84	50	35

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	2A5b	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	2D3b	3	2	2	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	4	3	3	4	5	6	4	4	4	4	2	2	2	2	3	3
PM10	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3biii	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	2A5b	0	0	0	3	1	22	3	6	7	5	6	7	9	4	23	3
PM10	2D3b	22	16	17	20	26	20	20	17	17	17	3	3	4	2	12	15
TSP	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	2A5b	1	1	1	5	3	44	6	13	14	10	12	13	17	8	2	7

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3bi	2276120	2341840	2378337	1965205	1654192	580790	486122	376745	316211	259680
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2758646	2833887	2854506	2377534	2024570	726360	620277	493380	428291	365745	10347	10326	9594	9492	9511	8593	6683	9127	7512	9180	9483	7838	9585	11849	11700	12118