Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MC Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3biii	49	52	57	53	51	48	49	46	44	43	41	42	41	44	44	43	43	47	46	46	45	46	50	49	29	12
NMVOC	1A1a	2	24	24	33	32	32	33	35	35	32	35	33	32	35	37	32	26	35	26	37	39	28	38	51	50	52
NMVOC	1A3bii	41	45	48	42	41	37	34	29	26	25	22	20	19	18	17	15	14	14	12	11	10	12	12	13	9	7
NMVOC	1A3biv	132	157	187	180	192	189	190	186	187	197	193	191	197	189	185	182	193	202	191	163	131	141	148	147	140	129
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	11	14	14	12	12	12	10	17	13	17	24	30	26	29	31	31	31	35	39	44	44	42	48	46	41	45
NMVOC	2D3d	1	1	1	1	2	5	7	6	6	6	5	6	6	10	10	48	11	18	18	15	15	17	23	10	20	15
NMVOC	2D3h	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	26	5	12	18	12	7	8	4	5	5	20
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	603	703	797	736	736	692	658	610	575	562	529	505	497	482	466	506	446	478	456	416	367	375	400	401	394	389
SOx	1A3ai(i)	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SOx	1A3bi	19	21	22	28	26	19	15	13	12	12	7	5	4	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	5	6	6	6	4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	7	8	8	8	5	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3di(i)	7	10	9	7	5	5	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4bi	69	60	58	59	56	35	38	35	36	36	33	31	34	36	33	33	30	24	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	1A3bi	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3
NH3	1A3di(i)	185	236	254	222	217	201	148	312	189	237	332	390	337	350	346	332	328	345	355	421	383	376	425	400	363	402
NH3	1A3dii	62	79	86	76	74	68	48	108	62	76	106	120	105	105	100	95	94	95	94	114	97	97	110	101	94	104
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	62	79	87	77	76	70	52	112	66	81	111	126	110	111	106	100	99	100	98	118	100	100	113	105	98	107
CO	1A3bii	306	338	358	308	302	274	246	211	191	178	156	144	137	127	116	104	97	92	79	73	67	76	81	84	50	35
CO	1A3biii	56	59	64	59	57	53	53	50	48	45	44	43	42	44	43	42	42	45	44	43	42	43	47	46	26	11
CO	1A3biv	283	338	399	382	408	399	402	391	395	419	409	410	428	418	414	409	433	458	439	376	305	327	347	348	336	315

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	2A5b	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	2D3b	3	2	2	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	4	3	3	4	5	6	4	4	4	4	2	2	2	2	3	3
PM10	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3biii	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	2A5b	0	0	0	3	1	22	3	6	7	5	6	7	9	4	23	3
PM10	2D3b	22	16	17	20	26	20	20	17	17	17	3	3	4	2	12	15
TSP	1A4bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	2A5b	1	1	1	5	3	44	6	13	14	10	12	13	17	8	2	7

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	3104	6917	7189	9100	9257	9170	9603	10524	10266	9812	10343	10322	9590	9487	9507	8588	6679	9123	7509	9176	9479	7835	9582	11847	11698	12116
Pb	1A3bi	2276120	2341840	2378337	1965205	1654192	580790	486122	376745	316211	259680
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2758646	2833887	2854506	2377534	2024570	726360	620277	493380	428291	365745	10347	10326	9594	9492	9511	8593	6683	9127	7512	9180	9483	7838	9585	11849	11700	12118
Cd	1A1a	257	541	562	711	723	716	751	821	801	767	807	805	748	738	739	668	521	710	586	714	736	610	746	921	908	941
Cd	1A3biii	12	13	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	12	12	11	11	12	13	12	7	3
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	343	631	658	837	853	842	877	940	916	883	916	914	857	845	843	768	621	814	684	802	813	691	834	1008	989	1015

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	76	1104	1101	1540	1504	1484	1530	1648	1648	1514	1621	1546	1478	1640	1744	1494	1200	1638	1227	1731	1837	1333	1795	2389	2335	2435
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	79	1107	1103	1542	1507	1486	1532	1650	1651	1517	1623	1548	1480	1642	1746	1496	1203	1640	1229	1733	1839	1335	1796	2390	2336	2437
HCB	1A1a	2574	8489	8692	11412	11439	11312	11774	12833	12632	11897	12616	12392	11629	12008	12318	10898	8578	11718	9299	12018	12560	9858	12512	15949	15690	16294
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2574	8489	8692	11412	11439	11312	11774	12833	12632	11897	12616	12392	11629	12008	12318	10898	8578	11718	9299	12018	12560	9858	12512	15949	15690	16294