Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280	18820	18660	20280	25049	20669
NOx	1A4cii	3805	5376	3600	2946	2230	1881	2037	2130	1999	1812	1844	1902	1903	2031	2218	2405	2747	2934	2679	2773	2960	3034	2815	2847	2903	3125	3240	3637
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	549	492	1017	1517	1539	1795	1864	1305	1672
NMVOC	11B	129	34	4206	285	13	268	464	224	106	772	658	135	1182	324	242	60	1684	136	182	323	158	61	45	108	323	218	206	132
NMVOC	2D3a	1887	1880	1869	1829	1797	1768	1747	1729	1712	1697	1681	1664	1641	1626	1610	1591	1246	2265	1177	757	1032	1411	1406	1489	1655	1819	1680	1449
NMVOC	2D3d	5092	5073	5045	4935	4850	4773	4713	4666	4620	4579	4538	4492	4430	4389	4345	4294	4497	4291	3863	3315	4510	3906	4110	4899	4395	3897	3806	4009
NMVOC	2D3g	1323	1318	1311	1282	1260	1240	1225	1213	1201	1190	1179	1167	1151	1140	1129	1116	1136	1108	1044	912	1230	2605	1899	1763	1651	1540	1445	1503
SOx	1A2a	1399	942	668	445	458	352	448	572	304	309	303	295	246	240	246	158	226	218	229	183	216	8	63	11	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A2c	3037	1508	1306	2893	3129	4391	3333	3287	330	121	125	130	155	120	2	1	3	3	51	21	12	8	9	20	18	10	8	9
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	58	78	22	22	20	20	26	26	24	24	21	21	22	32	37	44	49	60	75	79	93	93	98	102	91	91	106	121
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	4941	6531	5635	4350	4790	4969	5047	502	622	513
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	75	374	388	171	153	191	64	67
NH3	3B4gi	1123	1131	594	519	457	453	496	488	454	448	436	452	503	442	430	470	503	502	431	474	559	506	511	511	500	490	479	494
CO	1A4bii	485	700	657	463	226	32	11	11	11	22	2231	2242	2242	2233	2233	3700	4433	4433	4433	4616	4670	4670	4653	4670	4670	3937	3960	3997
CO	3I	207	333	459	8	37	196	457	215	468	1002	844	1791	4307	5347	2505	756	9626	1510	436	1664	931	604	698	703	2543	1215	253	461

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	2D3b	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571	452	464	621	605	474
PM10	2D3b	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279	3389	3483	4655	4539	3556
TSP	2D3b	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971	15815	16254	21722	21181	16594
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	34494	35314	36251	38537	77425	51007	51109	57585	55951	46670	43173	53448	53017	48026	48041	52650	46878	44199
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	34494	35314	36251	38537	77425	51007	51109	57585	55951	46670	43173	53448	53017	48026	48041	52650	46878	44199

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	225688	197389	183129	190679	209021	164581	193330	190110	195758	157545	126466	117293	123412	122589	109924	97019	104666	104661	100596	98887	112131	101643	125469	194124	231849	254024	323925	372214
Pb	1A2gviii	48262	36023	35005	130106	126219	76392	86567	71345	98293	92066	69451	88164	74641	73135	107528	131432	164427	131020	142556	213923	251102	291374	329299	352211	404274	412644	375202	369372
Pb	1A3bi	38321575	35544008	36370139	35764106	34380039	32085397	24445669	15850767	9322817	3570670	1383261	1513149	1515438	1543651	1583830	1572933	1757747	1939181	1772077	1489369	1352365	1252535	1058439	956326	936720	931155	895610	865194
Pb	1A3bii	5673348	5422970	4752428	4517384	4477216	2961605	2444864	1380801	758885	253132	78846	70512	59084	49622	43045	37114	35843	34541	30267	23041	20662	21466	22924	22704	22128	21762	27473	22791
Pb	1A3biii	11871227	10227198	7906378	7361170	6434335	6476778	5552049	3082685	1476387	496884	180491	144079	118131	100523	77580	59433	55406	50067	41171	25113	21116	20216	16523	15645	14706	13311	14863	13662
Pb	1A4ai	2240021	1748442	1691581	1245730	778387	631175	691605	597422	487734	445900	349876	357590	344715	338374	352730	319256	322999	341041	254523	222634	265358	232895	191942	208281	181841	166042	160007	150011
Pb	1A4bi	1906082	2240875	1620451	1771703	1634610	1224689	1287430	1180117	1008244	931372	866535	1091592	982913	1017357	1023379	1059126	1004873	984299	977145	1071617	889781	897210	871785	765997	756681	626637	618871	666567
Pb	2A3	74066	52912	43924	4820	1901	17324	22164	8858	16458	11831	12488	45901	50897	41482	49198	38466	27365	517899	467443	342005	467608	441701	518361	222965	398933	424773	334333	349803
Pb	2C1	162940208	110648928	72829750	88993136	98459057	82733405	86994851	138600035	140518896	144462080	148940231	149499151	150934399	163584911	165306610	164556870	164541630	167047689	158098295	132005949	160253346	435822	2174721	502294	241	32437
Pb	2G	6157	6134	6099	5967	5863	5770	18461	19417	47027	130985	164605	174275	142476	234470	184730	259544	406930	593374	268791	72241	110236	126956	172098	153659	158311	106472	140131	152373
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	232821152	168086989	127341857	141883970	148708788	127251327	123171726	162231247	154839388	150885873	152520491	153518337	154759889	167535077	169295258	168692123	169082890	172547766	162898727	136182263	164242768	4281464	5933452	3833657	3557707	3439951	3353607	3452942
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	232821152	168086989	127341857	141883970	148708788	127251327	123171726	162231247	154839388	150885873	152520491	153518337	154759889	167535077	169295258	168692123	169082890	172547766	162898727	136182263	164242768	4281464	5933452	3833657	3557707	3439951	3353607	3452942
Cd	2C1	435844	295972	194810	238045	263289	221313	232606	370093	375192	385661	397919	399433	403286	436628	441977	439952	439961	445720	422271	352101	427561	33525	167286	38638	19	2495
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	935549	840787	718068	796914	825699	826628	864138	967336	955780	954465	920403	976188	967296	1022948	1066416	1065910	1056405	1088371	1036183	1036291	1024909	647781	848104	664195	654548	603668	580091	623763
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	935549	840787	718068	796914	825699	826628	864138	967336	955780	954465	920403	976188	967296	1022948	1066416	1065910	1056405	1088371	1036183	1036291	1024909	647781	848104	664195	654548	603668	580091	623763
Hg	1A3di(i)	10800	3070	3810	4650	6380	3320	2200	1640	430	300	240	4940	5010	4530	4850	6180	4650	4210	4650	1830	2070	2250	2610	2223	2070	6370	7992	6600
Hg	2A1																					11950	3400	56000	16000	3600	7640	24210	15780
Hg	2C1	346	235	155	189	190	179	161	128	123	111	193	199	206	104	300	294	306	67	175	22	57	8381	41822	9660	5	624
Hg	5C1biii	3558	3676	3793	3911	4029	4146	4264	4382	4500	8661	2426	9172	1387	1746	4830	4391	11261	15087	532	502	552	548	776	253	445	795	439	1250

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	2C1	57	39	26	31	33	29	29	39	39	39	45	45	46	43	55	54	55	41	46	31	39	503	2509	580	0	37
DIOX	5C1biii	3310	3419	3529	3638	3748	3857	3967	4076	4186	8057	2256	8532	1290	1624	4493	4085	10476	14034	494	467	514	510	722	235	414	740	408	1162
DIOX	5E	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2316	2378	2428	2359	2462	2193	2074	2397
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	25860	28004	26167	27334	26784	27204	28193	27433	27148	31116	25163	33912	26655	27562	30836	28751	34500	37129	22811	24036	19232	20209	23031	18987	18440	16062	15562	18145
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	25860	28004	26167	27334	26784	27204	28193	27433	27148	31116	25163	33912	26655	27562	30836	28751	34500	37129	22811	24036	19232	20209	23031	18987	18440	16062	15562	18145
HCB	5C1biii	8274	8548	8822	9095	9369	9643	9917	10190	10464	20142	5641	21331	3225	4061	11232	10213	26189	35086	1236	1166	1284	1274	1805	589	1034	1850	1020	2906
PCB	1A2e	181716	101647	111337	100967	98697	52522	52523	45396	31130	40651	23827	23848	24021	26903	17905	22502	18066	13472	13454	8869	9370	2742	4622	4277	4108	4096	7844	6825
PCB	2C1	17315	11758	7740	9457	9477	8948	8030	6380	6150	5558	9645	9952	10288	5202	15010	14682	15318	3355	8745	1105	2832	419060	2091078	482975	231	31190
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	4290539	3708559	3056187	2674942	1953123	1081593	1153680	954466	707581	588926	444992	583571	481251	451054	447206	552357	610925	698984	677034	523859	441311	823329	2361498	743001	257634	241986	216788	187225
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	4290539	3708559	3056187	2674942	1953123	1081593	1153680	954466	707581	588926	444992	583571	481251	451054	447206	552357	610925	698984	677034	523859	441311	823329	2361498	743001	257634	241986	216788	187225