Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280	18820	18660	20280	25049
NOx	1A4cii	3805	5376	3600	2946	2230	1881	2037	2130	1999	1812	1844	1902	1903	2031	2218	2405	2747	2934	2679	2773	2960	3034	2815	2847	2903	3125	3240
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	549	492	1017	1517	1539	1795	1864	1305
NMVOC	11B	129	34	4206	285	13	268	464	224	106	772	658	135	1182	324	242	60	1684	136	182	323	158	61	45	108	323	218	206
NMVOC	1B2b	2133	2061	1895	1820	1783	1741	1684	1584	1524	1461	1365	1751	1723	1304	1214	1132	909	944	869	905	886	430	688	1047	1556	1683	1434
NMVOC	2D3a	2479	2470	2456	2403	2361	2324	2295	2272	2249	2229	2209	2187	2157	2137	2115	2091	1637	2878	1644	1036	1277	1636	1647	1743	1952	2160	2588
NMVOC	2D3d	6746	6720	6682	6537	6424	6322	6243	6181	6120	6066	6010	5950	5868	5813	5755	5688	5906	5453	5399	4534	5580	4530	4815	5737	5182	4627	4612
NMVOC	2D3g	2112	2104	2092	2046	2011	1979	1955	1935	1916	1899	1882	1863	1580	1818	2060	2395	1492	1408	1458	1248	1522	3021	2225	2064	1946	1828	1763
NMVOC	2D3i	1387	1382	1374	1344	1321	1300	1284	1271	1259	1247	1236	1224	1207	1196	1184	1170	1211	1214	1021	946	1218	1488	1547	1119	2099	3080	2172
SOx	1A2a	1401	945	671	445	461	352	448	572	304	309	306	295	246	240	246	160	226	218	229	183	217	8	63	11	0	0	0
SOx	1A2c	3049	1519	1314	2893	3133	4391	3333	3287	330	125	125	130	155	120	2	1	3	3	53	25	16	12	10	20	19	10	9
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	58	78	22	22	20	20	26	26	24	24	21	21	22	32	37	44	49	60	75	79	93	93	98	102	91	91	106
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	4941	6531	5635	4350	4790	4969	5047	502	622
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	75	374	388	171	153	191	64
NH3	3B4gi	1123	1131	594	519	457	453	496	488	454	448	436	452	503	442	430	470	503	502	431	474	559	506	511	511	500	490	479
CO	3I	207	333	459	8	37	196	457	215	468	1002	844	1791	4307	5347	2505	756	9626	1510	436	1664	931	604	698	703	2543	1215	1206

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	2D3b	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571	452	464	621	605
PM10	2D3b	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279	3389	3483	4655	4539
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	27081	27062	27206	28691	37172	30306	30337	31439	30341	29303	25272	27774	28108	26186	26159	25574	24139
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	27081	27062	27206	28691	37172	30306	30337	31439	30341	29303	25272	27774	28108	26186	26159	25574	24139
TSP	2D3b	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971	15815	16254	21722	21181
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	37170	36830	37886	40183	78938	50982	51062	57515	55876	46503	43059	53318	52884	47862	47909	52524	46887
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	37170	36830	37886	40183	78938	50982	51062	57515	55876	46503	43059	53318	52884	47862	47909	52524	46887

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2gviii	48423	36189	35066	130146	126266	76460	86628	71415	98360	92133	69518	88229	74709	73199	107606	131496	164511	131152	142657	214011	251170	291477	329423	352333	404376	412735	375296
Pb	1A3bi	38635725	35116813	35953609	35765228	34247621	31966493	24417358	15675265	9152235	3446554	3601802	3939965	3945545	4006248	4105735	1568902	1755779	1937910	1771508	1485491	1350005	1250362	1055389	956314	937761	932316	905159
Pb	1A3bii	4993243	5058220	4415438	4299129	4427808	2870282	2605295	1461855	732772	272068	184658	166330	141846	123503	109501	36794	34994	33876	29507	24233	21615	22127	24227	22304	21220	20929	21746
Pb	1A3biii	12232293	11012915	8666830	7574427	6612485	6683883	5415985	3175767	1672471	601597	483559	384924	312452	272904	214981	63553	57984	51828	42365	27239	22259	21383	17781	15865	14579	12958	12261
Pb	1A4ai	2256091	1771242	1706305	1260537	781416	633530	693877	598515	488407	447751	351896	359865	347081	341292	355787	321725	326254	344267	257160	225392	268150	235373	195335	211756	185651	170109	162524
Pb	1A4bi	1906105	2240908	1620483	1771725	1634621	1224691	1287431	1180117	1008245	931373	866536	1091594	982915	1017359	1023380	1059128	1004875	984301	977146	1071627	889794	897223	871798	766010	756693	626650	626187
Pb	2C1	165000000	112047600	73750500	90118200	99586500	83797800	87950100	139359000	141250500	145123200	150087600	150683100	152158200	164203800	167092200	166303500	166363800	167446800	159138600	132137400	160590300	435822	2174721	502294	241	32437
Pb	2G	6157	6134	6099	5967	5863	5770	18461	19417	47027	130985	164605	174275	142476	234470	184730	259544	406930	593374	268791	72241	110236	126956	172098	153659	158311	106472	140131
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	234628761	169261931	128060060	142810405	149634785	128121808	123932055	162799404	155381058	151357786	156079544	157204440	158422221	170581789	173512729	170123740	170550983	172022527	163089952	135567994	163745775	3526048	5121755	3305232	2834510	2665593	2674312
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	234628761	169261931	128060060	142810405	149634785	128121808	123932055	162799404	155381058	151357786	156079544	157204440	158422221	170581789	173512729	170123740	170550983	172022527	163089952	135567994	163745775	3526048	5121755	3305232	2834510	2665593	2674312
Cd	2C1	440000	298794	196668	240315	265564	223461	234534	371624	376668	386995	400234	401822	405755	437877	445579	443476	443637	446525	424370	352366	428241	33525	167286	38638	19	2495
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	939913	844913	720012	799788	827173	828078	865418	967917	956243	955017	921924	977898	969165	1023666	1069418	1068506	1059034	1048278	1001237	1007903	988080	612457	807012	645650	622581	569682	556183
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	939913	844913	720012	799788	827173	828078	865418	967917	956243	955017	921924	977898	969165	1023666	1069418	1068506	1059034	1048278	1001237	1007903	988080	612457	807012	645650	622581	569682	556183
Hg	1A2a	2555	2084	1937	1871	1787	1359	1443	2255	2288	2221	2249	2321	2220	2259	2503	2519	2364	2339	2173	1928	2399	850	2236	550	7	219	25
Hg	1A3di(i)	10800	3070	3810	4650	6380	3320	2200	1640	430	300	240	4940	5010	4530	4850	6180	4650	4210	4650	1830	2070	2250	2610	2223	2070	6370	7992
Hg	2A1																					11950	3400	56000	16000	3600	7640	24210
Hg	2C1																						8381	41822	9660	5	624
Hg	5C1biii	3558	3676	3793	3911	4029	4146	4264	4382	4500	8661	2426	9172	1387	1746	4830	4391	11261	15087	532	502	552	548	776	253	445	795	439

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	2C1	37	25	16	20	22	19	20	31	32	32	34	34	34	37	37	37	37	37	36	30	36	503	2509	580	0	37
DIOX	5C1biii	3310	3419	3529	3638	3748	3857	3967	4076	4186	8057	2256	8532	1290	1624	4493	4085	10476	14034	494	467	514	510	722	235	414	740	408
HCB	5C1biii	8274	8548	8822	9095	9369	9643	9917	10190	10464	20142	5641	21331	3225	4061	11232	10213	26189	35086	1236	1166	1284	1274	1805	589	1034	1850	1020
PCB	1A2e	181716	101647	111337	100967	98697	52522	52523	45396	31130	40651	23827	23848	24021	26903	17905	22502	18066	13472	13454	8869	9370	2742	4622	4277	4108	4096	7844
PCB	2C1																						419060	2091078	482975	231	31190
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	4273226	3696804	3048445	2665487	1943648	1072647	1145653	948088	701433	583371	435348	573616	470958	445848	432192	537675	595610	695634	668292	429034	438478	823330	2361499	743000	257633	241985	216576
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	4273226	3696804	3048445	2665487	1943648	1072647	1145653	948088	701433	583371	435348	573616	470958	445848	432192	537675	595610	695634	668292	429034	438478	823330	2361499	743000	257633	241985	216576