Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280	18820	18660	20280
NOx	1A4cii	3805	5376	3600	2946	2230	1881	2037	2130	1999	1812	1844	1902	1903	2031	2218	2405	2747	2934	2679	2773	2960	3034	2815	2847	2903	3125
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	549	492	1017	1517	1539	1795	1864
NOx	2C1	2805	1905	1254	1532	1693	1425	1495	2369	2401	2467	2551	2562	2587	2791	2841	2827	2828	2847	2705	2246	2730	22	109	25	0	2
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	93660	86197	70427	61904	56686	52136	51914	50114	46469	44931	44238	47171	45890	47673	46805	45213	45930	45795	42046	39555	42257	36392	36537	36334	36357	36534
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	93660	86197	70427	61904	56686	52136	51914	50114	46469	44931	44238	47171	45890	47673	46805	45213	45930	45795	42046	39555	42257	36392	36537	36334	36357	36534
NMVOC	11B	129	34	4206	285	13	268	464	224	106	772	658	135	1182	324	242	60	1684	136	182	323	158	61	45	108	323	218
NMVOC	1A4cii	2942	685	528	471	408	306	320	328	246	230	233	185	195	249	266	282	312	329	236	244	261	408	389	392	329	315
NMVOC	1B2b	2133	2061	1895	1820	1783	1741	1684	1584	1524	1461	1365	1751	1723	1304	1214	1132	909	944	869	905	886	430	688	1047	1556	1683
NMVOC	2D3a	2049	2041	2029	1985	1951	1920	1896	1877	1859	1842	1825	1807	1782	1766	1748	1727	1366	2041	2167	1612	1881	2099	2038	1787	1975	1040
NMVOC	2D3d	4741	4724	4697	4595	4515	4444	4388	4345	4302	4264	4225	4182	4124	4086	4045	3998	3988	3896	2940	3179	4683	4000	3946	5105	4351	4272
NMVOC	2D3i	1174	1170	1163	1138	1118	1100	1087	1076	1065	1056	1046	1036	1021	1012	1002	990	942	1010	952	754	678	888	1092	532	837	1865
SOx	1A2a	1401	945	671	445	461	352	448	572	304	309	306	295	246	240	246	160	226	218	229	183	217	8	63	11	0	0
SOx	1A2c	3049	1519	1314	2893	3133	4391	3333	3287	330	125	125	130	155	120	2	1	3	3	53	25	16	12	10	20	19	10
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	4941	6531	5635	4350	4790	4969	5047	502
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	75	374	388	171	153	191
NH3	3B3	8811	7817	5382	2909	3088	3371	2868	2661	2595	2447	2359	2406	2484	2388	2322	2233	2138	2085	1899	1842	1896	1806	1716	1772	1670	1552
NH3	3B4gi	1752	1765	926	519	457	453	496	488	454	448	436	452	503	442	430	470	503	502	431	474	559	506	511	511	500	490
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	43393	40426	30557	20616	18865	18050	18305	17894	17066	15646	15854	15901	15948	16141	15957	16462	16704	17000	16707	17224	17206	17155	18024	18285	18786	18757
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	43393	40426	30557	20616	18865	18050	18305	17894	17066	15646	15854	15901	15948	16141	15957	16462	16704	17000	16707	17224	17206	17155	18024	18285	18786	18757
CO	1A2gvii	14659	3665	3665	3665	2199	733	2199	1466	1466	733	733	733	1149	733	1467	1467	1467	1467	1467	733	733	733	733	733	717	800
CO	1A4cii	28210	3829	3289	3090	2872	2034	2082	2110	1339	1282	1292	761	861	1349	1406	1463	1567	1624	815	843	900	2386	2320	2329	1648	1366
CO	3I	207	333	459	8	37	196	457	215	468	1002	844	1791	4307	5347	2505	756	9626	1510	436	1664	931	604	698	703	2543	1215

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	11	683	808	757	833	1100	847	766	987	1306	1144	905	1001	1022	1032	923
PM2.5	2D3b	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571	452	464	531
PM10	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128	1139	1015
PM10	2D3b	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279	3389	3483	3982
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	24798	25469	25514	26850	35308	27187	27032	27248	26476	26400	22216	23614	24757	22805	22957	23377
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	24798	25469	25514	26850	35308	27187	27032	27248	26476	26400	22216	23614	24757	22805	22957	23377
TSP	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128	1139	1015
TSP	2D3b	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971	15815	16254	18581
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	33747	34468	35356	37368	76050	42360	41997	45893	45285	38257	34889	41488	43689	38409	38927	41137
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	33747	34468	35356	37368	76050	42360	41997	45893	45285	38257	34889	41488	43689	38409	38927	41137
BC	1A3bi	83	176	177	210	243	227	225	223	196	182	194	168	177	159	162	164
BC	1A3di(i)	3	109	120	110	120	156	119	108	130	173	156	129	143	142	142	143

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220074	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1676985	1591213	1470935	1259940	1157975	1151492	1171744
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595679	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	52709	53644	55377	65771	67552	71976	76864
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177939	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	200012	218140	169020	148674	159172	159636	172955
Pb	1A4ai	2256091	1771242	1706305	1260537	781416	633530	693877	598515	488407	447751	351896	359865	347081	341292	355787	321725	326254	344267	257160	225392	268150	235373	195335	211756	185651	170111
Pb	1A4bi	1906105	2240908	1620483	1771725	1634621	1224691	1287431	1180117	1008245	931373	866536	1091594	982915	1017359	1023380	1059128	1004875	984301	977146	1071627	889794	897852	873087	767691	758797	739920
Pb	2C1	165000000	112047600	73750200	90117900	99586500	83797800	87950100	139358700	141250500	145123200	150087600	150683100	152158200	164203800	167092200	166303500	166363800	167446800	159138600	132137400	160590300	435822	2174721	502294	241	32437
Pb	2G	6157	6134	6099	5967	5863	5770	18461	19417	47027	130985	164605	174275	142476	234470	184730	259544	406930	593374	268791	72241	110236	126956	172098	153659	158311	106472
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	261557877	193941979	150323609	163389885	168099295	144271731	146519696	191329021	187915563	151599248	156349010	157522418	158751050	170920683	173857585	170482926	170953612	172476291	163516432	135960706	164214713	3927975	5499797	3696957	3246173	3234581
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	261557877	193941979	150323609	163389885	168099295	144271731	146519696	191329021	187915563	151599248	156349010	157522418	158751050	170920683	173857585	170482926	170953612	172476291	163516432	135960706	164214713	3927975	5499797	3696957	3246173	3234581
Cd	2C1	440000	298794	196667	240314	265564	223461	234534	371623	376668	386995	400234	401822	405755	437877	445579	443476	443637	446525	424370	352366	428241	33525	167286	38638	19	2495
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	942432	847185	721903	801586	828855	829574	866904	969311	957591	956360	923494	979976	971307	1025872	1071692	1070920	1061937	1051837	1004428	1010493	991018	614741	809227	648082	625202	626323
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	942432	847185	721903	801586	828855	829574	866904	969311	957591	956360	923494	979976	971307	1025872	1071692	1070920	1061937	1051837	1004428	1010493	991018	614741	809227	648082	625202	626323
Hg	1A2a	2555	2084	1937	1871	1787	1359	1443	2255	2288	2221	2249	2321	2220	2259	2503	2519	2364	2339	2173	1928	2399	850	2236	550	7	219
Hg	1A3di(i)	10800	3070	3810	4650	6380	3320	2200	1640	430	300	240	4940	5010	4530	4850	6180	4650	4210	4650	1830	2070	2250	2610	2223	2070	6370
Hg	2A1																					11950	3400	56000	16000	3600	7640
Hg	2C1																						8381	41822	9660	5	624
Hg	5C1biii	3558	3676	3793	3911	4029	4146	4264	4382	4500	8661	2426	9172	1387	1746	4830	4391	11261	15087	532	502	552	548	776	253	445	795
Hg	5C1bv					80	840	1220	1217	1295	1463	1679	1933	1927	2070	2073	2278	2429	2919	3318	2946	3132	3215	2935	3204	3311	3569
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	276937	246892	207482	181699	143013	108723	112698	102604	92924	88136	73726	84809	73164	73681	75920	78910	89346	97321	79448	69655	80156	76839	161779	91137	71221	75675
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	276937	246892	207482	181699	143013	108723	112698	102604	92924	88136	73726	84809	73164	73681	75920	78910	89346	97321	79448	69655	80156	76839	161779	91137	71221	75675

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	5C1biii	3310	3419	3529	3638	3748	3857	3967	4076	4186	8057	2256	8532	1290	1624	4493	4085	10476	14034	494	467	514	510	722	235	414	740
HCB	5C1biii	8274	8548	8822	9095	9369	9643	9917	10190	10464	20142	5641	21331	3225	4061	11232	10213	26189	35086	1236	1166	1284	1274	1805	589	1034	1850
PCB	1A2e	181716	101647	111337	100967	98697	52522	52523	45396	31130	40651	23827	23848	24021	26903	17905	22502	18066	13472	13454	8869	9370	2742	4622	4277	4108	4096