Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280	18820	18660
NOx	1A4ci	4451	5545	3095	2712	2198	1533	1618	1659	1559	1397	1392	1473	1468	1560	1692	1800	2035	2179	1960	2052	2202	2248	2135	2177	2215
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	703	483	934	1464	1497	1766
NOx	2C1	2805	1905	1254	1532	1693	1425	1495	2369	2401	2467	2551	2562	2587	2791	2841	2827	2828	2847	2705	2246	2730	22	109	25	0
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	93112	85971	69808	61968	56063	51096	50814	48997	45342	44138	43283	46169	44896	46782	45629	43876	44575	44170	40473	38326	41246	35108	35422	35033	35018
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	93112	85971	69808	61968	56063	51096	50814	48997	45342	44138	43283	46169	44896	46782	45629	43876	44575	44170	40473	38326	41246	35108	35422	35033	35018
NMVOC	11B	129	34	4206	285	13	268	464	224	106	772	658	135	1182	324	242	60	1684	136	182	323	158	61	45	108	323
NMVOC	2D3d	8266	8235	8188	8010	7872	7747	7651	7574	7500	7433	7365	7291	7190	7124	7053	6970	9812	14212	11384	11402	8219	8246	9587	8636	8823
SOx	1A2a	1401	945	671	445	461	352	448	572	304	309	306	295	246	240	246	160	226	218	229	183	217	8	63	11	0
SOx	1A2c	3049	1519	1314	2893	3133	4391	3333	3287	330	125	125	130	155	120	2	1	3	3	53	25	16	12	10	20	19
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	4941	6531	5635	4350	4790	4969	5047
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	70	374	321	167	149
NH3	3B3	9966	8735	6117	3513	3431	3877	3026	2867	2756	2582	2454	2627	2697	2598	2500	2414	2327	2285	2080	2016	2142	2054	2000	2103	2015
NH3	3B4gi	1912	1925	1010	566	499	495	541	532	495	488	476	493	549	482	469	513	549	548	470	517	619	564	584	592	597
CO	1A2gvii	14659	3665	3665	3665	2199	733	2199	1466	1466	733	733	733	1149	733	1467	1467	1467	1467	1467	733	733	733	733	733	717
CO	1A4cii	27120	2199	2199	2199	2199	1466	1466	1466	733	733	733	183	283	733	733	733	733	733				1467	1467	1467	762
CO	3I	207	333	459	8	37	196	457	215	468	1002	844	1791	4307	5347	2505	756	9626	1510	436	1664	931	604	698	703	2543

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	11	683	808	757	833	1100	847	766	987	1306	1144	905	1001	1022	1032
PM2.5	2D3b	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571	452	464
PM10	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128	1139
PM10	2D3b	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279	3389	3483
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	26301	26723	26874	28157	36653	28388	28311	28532	27660	27668	23591	24936	26126	24112	24129
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	26301	26723	26874	28157	36653	28388	28311	28532	27660	27668	23591	24936	26126	24112	24129
TSP	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128	1139
TSP	2D3b	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971	15815	16254
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	33156	33510	34426	36520	75115	40898	40281	44103	43517	36569	33241	39932	42145	36726	37171
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	33156	33510	34426	36520	75115	40898	40281	44103	43517	36569	33241	39932	42145	36726	37171
BC	1A3bi	83	176	177	210	243	227	225	223	196	182	194	168	177	159	162

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	225673	197389	183129	190679	209021	164581	193330	190110	195758	157545	126466	117293	123412	122589	109924	97019	104666	104661	100596	98887	112131	101643	125469	194124	231849
Pb	1A2f	23319	11706	15588	27512	23704	18033	8394	13469	6040	6681	11033	16315	20778	20762	20474	102694	160682	250706	259702	175266	249936	321153	285479	215801	205430
Pb	1A2gvii	3032345	758086	758086	758086	454852	151617	454852	303235	303235	5054	5054	5054	7925	5057	10115	10115	10115	10115	10115	5057	5057	5057	5057	5057	4942
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220074	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1676985	1591213	1470935	1259940	1157975	1151492
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595679	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	52709	53644	55377	65771	67552	71976
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177939	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	200012	218140	169020	148674	159172	159636
Pb	1A4ai	2230422	1739362	1683516	1240692	771910	628156	689014	594312	485406	443590	348773	356486	343767	337488	351973	318501	322206	340962	254355	222606	265308	232903	191972	208282	181933
Pb	1A4bi	1906105	2240908	1620483	1771725	1634621	1224691	1287431	1180117	1008245	931373	866536	1091594	982915	1017359	1023380	1059128	1004875	984301	977146	1071627	889794	894709	866642	759286	748281
Pb	1A4cii	5609838	454852	454852	454852	454852	303235	303235	303235	151617	5054	5054	1263	1953	5057	5057	5057	5057	5057				10115	10115	10115	5256
Pb	2C1	170000	112048	70000	90118	99586	83798	87950	139359	141250	145123	150088	150683	152158	164204	167092	166304	166364	167447	159139	132137	160590	436	2175	502	0
Pb	2G	6157	6134	6099	5967	5863	5770	18461	19417	47027	130985	164605	174275	142476	234470	184730	259544	406930	593374	268791	72241	110236	126956	172098	153659	158311
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	96702556	81974832	76620923	73341420	68601513	60551440	58651826	52104900	46802916	6617079	6408525	6986699	6741772	6877371	6928845	4342702	4752353	5221238	4561939	4054509	4031126	3799869	3604479	3412242	3441098
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	96702556	81974832	76620923	73341420	68601513	60551440	58651826	52104900	46802916	6617079	6408525	6986699	6741772	6877371	6928845	4342702	4752353	5221238	4561939	4054509	4031126	3799869	3604479	3412242	3441098
Cd	1A1a	54651	46315	41003	40430	44137	32325	39155	31675	32485	25944	17294	14995	15172	13704	11886	10147	10055	10055	9302	9456	10318	9350	11329	16914	19891
Hg	1A1a	34053	31407	27938	25216	22769	20853	21210	22317	20845	16839	17111	14986	14751	13927	11658	10680	11321	11306	11034	10811	12455	11428	13033	18232	20255
Hg	1A2a	2555	2084	1937	1871	1787	1359	1443	2255	2288	2221	2249	2321	2220	2259	2503	2519	2364	2339	2173	1928	2399	850	2236	550	7
Hg	1A3di(i)	10800	3070	3810	4650	6380	3320	2200	1640	430	300	240	4940	5010	4530	4850	6180	4650	4210	4650	1830	2070	2250	2610	2223	2070
Hg	5C1biii	5019	4737	4455	4173	3891	3609	3760	4000	4239	8661	2426	9172	1387	1746	4830	4391	11261	15087	532	502	552	548	776	253	445
Hg	5C1bv					80	840	1220	1217	1295	1463	1679	1933	1927	2070	2073	2278	2429	2919	3318	2946	3132	3215	2935	3204	3311

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	5C1biii	4669	4407	4144	3882	3619	3357	3498	3721	3944	8057	2256	8532	1290	1624	4493	4085	10476	14034	494	467	514	510	722	235	414
HCB	1A1a	26849	25991	29361	34593	30700	32682	29033	37860	34980	27277	31640	28289	29061	28995	24659	22154	24542	25794	25902	25179	28486	26043	32402	49099	57092
HCB	5C1biii	11673	11017	10361	9704	9048	8392	8744	9302	9859	20142	5641	21331	3225	4061	11232	10213	26189	35086	1236	1166	1284	1274	1805	589	1034
PCB	1A2e	181716	101647	111337	100967	98697	52522	52523	45396	31130	40651	23827	23848	24021	26903	17905	22502	18066	13472	13454	8869	9370	2742	4622	4277	4108