Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280	18820
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	703	483	934	1464	1497
NOx	2C1	2805	1905	1254	1532	1693	1425	1495	2369	2401	2467	2551	2562	2587	2791	2841	2827	2828	2847	2705	2246	2730	22	109	25
NMVOC	2D3d	10380	10341	10282	10059	9885	9728	9607	9511	9417	9334	9249	9155	9029	8945	8856	8752	8667	8168	6883	7602	7449	6164	4933	5549
SOx	1A1c	463	419	535	383	412	428	1360	449	1142	1248	446	42	10	8	8	13	8	6	3	3	4	4	3	4
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	18	24	7	7	6	6	8	8	7	7	6	6	7	10	32	38	42	52	63	65	75	73	76	81
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	4941	6531	5635	4350	4790	4969
SOx	2C1	88	60	39	48	53	45	47	74	75	77	80	80	81	88	89	89	89	89	85	70	86	10	50	12
NH3	3B3	4987	4439	3086	1716	1782	1968	1631	1487	1386	1313	1342	1395	1391	1311	1214	1141	1029	989	902	881	891	846	789	785
NH3	3B4gi	2851	2872	1502	1139	1022	1160	1047	981	887	894	858	1000	1073	1106	1119	1131	1240	1314	1277	1334	1367	1221	1357	1377
NH3	3B4h	948	948	948	948	805	778	750	323	201	306	354	429	424	435	523	516	666	661	720	599	609	666	844	844
CO	1A2gvii	14659	3665	3665	3665	2199	733	2199	1466	1466	733	733	733	1149	733	1467	1467	1467	1467	1467	733	733	733	733	733
CO	1A4cii	27120	2199	2199	2199	2199	1466	1466	1466	733	733	733	183	283	733	733	733	733	733				1467	1467	1467

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A1a	560	601	663	712	691	620	685	674	649	633	730	660	808	1258
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	11	683	808	757	833	1100	847	766	987	1306	1144	905	1001	1022
PM2.5	2D3b	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571	452
PM10	1A1a	674	715	786	838	809	724	797	785	755	737	848	768	940	1463
PM10	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128
PM10	2D3b	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279	3389
TSP	1A1a	796	831	908	954	917	818	891	878	841	824	944	854	1045	1623
TSP	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104	1128
TSP	2D3b	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971	15815
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	33630	37475	37787	40245	79417	47760	46603	50895	50527	44375	39396	46350	49433	42956
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	33630	37475	37787	40245	79417	47760	46603	50895	50527	44375	39396	46350	49433	42956
BC	1A3bi	83	176	177	210	243	227	225	223	196	182	194	168	177	177

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	225502	197389	183129	190679	209021	164581	193330	190110	195758	157545	126466	117122	123241	122471	109566	96901	104666	104661	100596	98769	111998	101631	125469	194124
Pb	1A2f	23319	11706	15588	27512	23704	18033	8394	13469	6040	6681	11033	16315	20778	20762	20474	102694	160682	250706	259512	175197	243713	311917	279271	211526
Pb	1A2gvii	3032345	758086	758086	758086	454852	151617	454852	303235	303235	5054	5054	5054	7925	5057	10115	10115	10115	10115	10115	5057	5057	5057	5057	5057
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220772	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1676985	1591213	1470935	1264098	1163
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595358	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	52709	53644	55377	65771	67
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177395	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	200012	218140	169020	148674	148
Pb	1A4ai	2230422	1739362	1683516	1240692	771910	628156	689014	594312	485406	443590	348773	356486	343767	337488	351973	318501	322206	340962	254355	222606	265308	232903	191972	211792
Pb	1A4bi	1428075	1689728	1283153	1401075	1315771	1079581	1133081	1048027	938805	879993	829996	997934	923135	962269	968290	993048	947965	927391	920236	1014717	814964	828629	826252	722186
Pb	1A4cii	5609838	454852	454852	454852	454852	303235	303235	303235	151617	5054	5054	1263	1953	5057	5057	5057	5057	5057				10115	10115	10115
Pb	2C1	170000	112048	70000	90118	99586	83798	87950	139359	141250	145123	150088	150683	152158	164204	167092	166304	166364	167447	159139	132137	160590	436	2175	502
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	96225300	81431588	76295182	72978873	68301590	60421731	58500020	51988769	46721825	6470090	6242756	6753970	6571638	6605649	6710241	4034916	4305799	4585291	4247899	3933713	3845624	3624203	3428427	1863479
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	96225300	81431588	76295182	72978873	68301590	60421731	58500020	51988769	46721825	6470090	6242756	6753970	6571638	6605649	6710241	4034916	4305799	4585291	4247899	3933713	3845624	3624203	3428427	1863479
Cd	1A1a	54593	46315	41003	40430	44137	32325	39155	31675	32485	25944	17294	14938	15115	13664	11766	10107	10055	10055	9302	9417	10277	9346	11329	16914
Hg	1A1a	33996	31407	27938	25216	22769	20853	21210	22317	20845	16839	17111	14929	14694	13887	11539	10641	11321	11306	11034	10771	12415	11424	13033	18232
Hg	1A2a	2974	2913	2980	2700	3249	2607	2691	4340	4373	4306	4334	4407	4124	3317	3775	3578	3383	3185	3232	2987	3031	1482	3508	961
Hg	1A3di(i)	10800	3070	3810	4650	6380	3320	2200	1640	430	300	240	4940	5010	4530	4850	6180	4650	4210	4650	1830	2070	2250	2610	2223
Hg	5C1bv					80	840	1220	1217	1295	1463	1679	1933	1927	2070	2073	2278	2429	2919	3318	2946	3132	3215	2935	2980

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	32320	35604	32386	33853	32826	32948	34346	33275	32950	37091	31146	41032	33891	35084	38512	35917	41155	43560	29245	31378	26083	45739	45415	51490
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	32320	35604	32386	33853	32826	32948	34346	33275	32950	37091	31146	41032	33891	35084	38512	35917	41155	43560	29245	31378	26083	45739	45415	51490
HCB	1A1a	26849	25991	29361	34593	30700	32682	29033	37860	34980	27277	31640	28289	29061	28995	24659	22154	24542	25794	25902	25179	28479	26043	32402	49099
PCB	1A2e	181716	101647	111337	100967	98697	52522	52523	45396	31130	40651	23827	23848	24021	26903	17905	22502	18066	13472	13454	8869	9370	2742	4622	4277