Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199	19280
NOx	2A1	902	834	375	42	202	237	267	272	264	355	226	274	298	325	351	358	446	457	452	703	483	934	1464
NOx	2C1	2805	1905	1254	1532	1693	1425	1495	2369	2401	2467	2551	2562	2587	2791	2841	2827	2828	2847	2705	2246	2730	855	4266
NMVOC	1A4cii	2729	221	221	221	221	148	148	148	74	74	74	18	28	74	74	74	74	74				148	148
NMVOC	1B2b	2966	2857	2604	2491	2434	2370	2284	2132	2045	1950	1804	1750	1827	1426	1412	1595	1144	1175	1206	1139	1097	594	853
NMVOC	3A1	1659	1653	1643	1607	1580	1555	1535	1520	1505	1492	1481	1463	1443	1429	1415	1399	2003	1706	1300	907	1118	1709	1833
NMVOC	3C	1360	1355	1347	1318	1295	1274	1258	1246	1234	1223	1214	1199	1359	1236	1160	1315	1691	1403	1056	1129	830	2478	1782
SOx	1A2a	1428	1074	832	555	658	520	564	661	365	355	309	306	203	152	149	107	141	152	158	110	98	28	84
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	18	24	7	7	6	6	8	8	7	7	6	6	7	10	48	14	48	59	71	74	86	84	87
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	5031	6653	5773	4503	4963
SOx	1A5b							0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	81
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	70	374	321
SOx	2C1	88	60	39	48	53	45	47	74	75	77	80	80	81	88	89	89	89	89	85	70	86	27	134
NH3	1A4bi	1403	1729	1704	1849	1877	2101	2195	2082	2100	2034	1976	2137	2106	2230	2245	2257	2184	2131	2112	2357	2152	1830	1948
CO	1A2fii	14659	3665	3665	3665	2199	733	2199	1466	1466	733	733	733	1466	733	1466	1466	1466	1466	1466	733	1083	733	733
CO	1A3bii	18010	18718	15557	15201	14852	9026	9919	7398	5897	5231	3327	3187	2587	2206	1874	1416	1241	1107	952	790	886	869	930
CO	1A4cii	27120	2199	2199	2199	2199	1466	1466	1466	733	733	733	183	283	733	733	733	733	733				1466	1466

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	11	683	808	757	833	1100	847	766	987	1306	1144	905	1001
PM2.5	2A6	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533	571
PM10	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104
PM10	2A6	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000	4279
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	29036	32061	31812	33527	42118	35571	35144	35709	34997	36109	35212	32937	35513
TSP	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999	1104
TSP	2A6	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667	19971
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	33066	36699	37006	39435	78581	46990	45875	50215	50016	43950	43444	46168	49878

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A2fi	67964	47823	50514	157916	150044	94555	95233	85039	104685	98969	80791	104719	95672	94049	128171	234269	321884	381836	402177	389206	494883	603829	611142
Pb	1A2fii	3032345	758086	758086	758086	454852	151617	454852	303235	303235	5054	5054	5054	10108	5054	10108	10108	10108	10108	10108	5054	7468	5054	5054
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220772	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1676985	1616669	1476129	1264098
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595358	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	52709	60322	61249	65771
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177395	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	200012	169026	155340	148674
Pb	1A4ai	2230544	1739453	1683636	1240789	771981	627925	689105	594386	485476	443713	348839	356620	343777	337429	351994	318522	325770	340691	254745	222518	265368	229093	191273
Pb	1A4bi	1428005	1689717	1283055	1401116	1315812	1079696	1133121	1048054	938802	880009	830066	997912	923109	962217	968238	993037	947941	927368	920213	1014694	969067	832538	826258
Pb	1A4cii	5609838	454852	454852	454852	454852	303235	303235	303235	151617	5054	5054	1263	1953	5054	5054	5054	5054	5054				10108	10108
Pb	2C1	165000	112048	73750	90118	99587	83798	87950	139359	141251	145123	150088	150683	152158	164204	167092	166304	166364	167447	159139	132137	160590	50287	250929
Pb	GRIDTOTAL											6239698					4034306					8201537
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	96219858	81432161	76301104	72977817	68297867	60420352	58498496	51987149	46717749	6461045	6239698	6748988	6576454	6609073	6710403	4034306	4297279	4573301	4259239	3948765	3994982	3667496	3672860
Cd	1A4bi	270395	332538	323416	351111	355244	393152	410847	389322	391411	378857	367750	398756	392298	415232	418131	420461	406757	396851	393406	438900	401288	341345	362589
Cd	GRIDTOTAL											509512					614684					225120
Hg	1A2a	2952	2901	2979	2708	3246	2609	2706	4359	4394	4325	4337	4409	4128	3317	3774	3579	3387	3190	3235	2991	3034	1478	3531

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
HCB	1A4bi	104284	128227	124587	135263	136824	151301	158112	149820	150585	145745	141464	153424	150919	159738	160853	161755	156479	152669	151344	168839	154383	131324	139478