Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LV Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A3di(i)	38049	11404	14500	17102	22465	12112	7833	5694	1179	785	628	15542	16426	15009	16196	20863	15808	14306	16617	22076	20246	17199
NOx	1A4ai	5360	5063	4450	3572	2317	2242	2257	2016	1641	1701	1410	1523	1575	1637	1795	1695	471	1844	1447	1363	1448	1307
NOx	1A4aii	9	9	9	9	46		18	18	9	18	18	18	9	9	9	9	1636	9	9	9	9	18
NOx	2C1	2805	1905	1254	1532	1693	1425	1495	2369	2401	2467	2551	2562	2587	2791	2841	2827	2828	2847	2705	2246	2730	855
NMVOC	1A4ai	2655	2275	2255	1794	1460	1572	1649	1485	1105	1124	911	976	983	1006	1121	1084	140	1184	818	762	809	717
NMVOC	1A4bi	21981	26801	25001	27125	27101	28851	30153	28488	28300	27292	26413	28929	28290	29900	30110	30338	29315	28610	28366	31608	29041	24799
NMVOC	1A4cii	27676	2244	2244	2244	2244	1496	1496	1496	748	748	748	187	289	747	747	747	747	747				1679
NMVOC	1B2av	2979	2533	2411	2342	2239	2019	1994	1833	1715	1656	1324	1387	1351	1324	1407	861	642	629	499	643	738	1079
NMVOC	2A6	499	161	27	754	1608	1497	2750	2880	2887	4286	6100	7138	8041	9010	52588	16776	16080	21492	22128	12074	13495	21333
NMVOC	3B1	2268	2259	2246	2197	2159	2124	2098	2077	2056	2038	2019	2010	0	10	31	10	10	127	77	54	5	5
NMVOC	3D2	4802	4784	4756	4653	4572	4499	4443	4398	4355	4316	4276	4256	723	1318	2098	2627	4532	7042	5515	1745	2809	2591
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	101533	75694	70878	70995	69925	67247	69827	66596	64260	63849	64609	68815	61165	64494	109514	73151	74273	82688	73545	60802	66101	69952
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	101482	75625	70859	70975	69907	67229	69804	66573	64239	63828	64591	68797	64664	64466	109508	73142	74298	82677	73451	60869	66081	69910
SOx	1A2a	1361	1074	832	558	658	520	562	660	364	353	308	302	203	152	149	107	141	152	158	110	97	28
SOx	1A3di(i)	20393	6936	9280	10175	12024	7074	4314	2934	162	40	32	5723	7090	6713	7434	9909	7669	3823	5031	6653	5773	4503
SOx	1A4aii	0	0	0	0	2		1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	762	0	0	0	0	1
SOx	2A1	3409	3150	1418	157	765	896	1010	1029	998	1341	853	1036	1127	1230	1326	1354	1686	1725	1706	1739	70	374
NH3	6B	1308	1303	1295	1267	1245	1225	1210	1198	1186	1175	993	1221	1160	1113	1259	1135	1137	1105	1231	1208	1206	786
CO	11B	403	108	13133	890	41	835	1447	699	329	2411	2055	422	3691	1012	757	187	5258	423	568	1009	495	190
CO	1A2fii	23760	5940	5940	5940	3564	1188	3564	2376	2376	1188	1188	1188	2376	1187	2374	2374	2374	2374	2374	1187	1187	1187
CO	1A4cii	53724	4356	4356	4356	4356	2904	2904	2904	1452	1452	1452	363	561	1451	1451	1451	1451	1451				3258
CO	7A	7848	9311	8505	10096	12153	14605	14346	18926	21272	22801	23331	13375	14368	14851	13680	14368	12484	12738	11405	13652	16519	3837

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	11	683	808	757	833	1100	847	766	987	1306	1144	905
PM2.5	2A6	153	178	201	225	1315	419	402	537	553	302	337	533
PM10	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999
PM10	2A6	1144	1338	1508	1689	9860	3146	3015	4030	4149	2264	2530	4000
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	26594	29309	29009	30483	38941	32584	32150	32741	32059	32963	32542	30989
TSP	1A3di(i)	12	751	890	835	918	1214	934	845	1090	1443	1263	999
TSP	2A6	5338	6246	7036	7884	46015	14679	14070	18806	19362	10564	11808	18667
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	30787	34023	34265	36438	75216	43970	42887	47255	47068	40778	40536	43889

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A2fi	258865	169069	149537	246537	262125	187831	185728	173821	192471	179445	107440	112156	100484	112806	142667	246014	338736	402083	411766	394536	495331	582048
Pb	1A3bi	54254945	49147399	49601720	48762841	45948333	41944951	39220772	35743279	33562201	3403255	3593211	3981186	4005041	4083168	4209363	1711444	1924216	2136464	1961250	1676985	1560903	1392617
Pb	1A3bii	7750117	7856000	6519185	6052603	5820099	3524786	3595358	2720267	2094408	300867	212219	196720	171642	152129	137749	58375	61051	62317	59624	52709	63252	54276
Pb	1A3biii	20744163	18826123	15143184	13369963	11953953	12174127	12177395	10349127	8407856	858069	734623	631837	552601	506845	428546	259274	266798	279230	249468	200012	232903	224138
Pb	1A4ai	2404742	1977808	1834574	1380004	820269	651894	697371	602511	497517	467673	364081	376292	364334	360837	375906	334236	347112	353432	270454	239300	281296	278484
Pb	1A4bi	1690887	2033693	1615513	1758762	1672818	1455954	1526050	1424514	1317325	1258911	1201945	1401364	1321114	1382962	1392219	1419387	1360916	1330515	1319973	1470659	1389449	1208677
Pb	2C1	3960000	2689142	1770005	2162830	2390076	2011147	2110802	3344609	3390012	3482957	3602102	3616394	3651797	3940891	4010213	3991284	3992731	4018723	3819326	3171298	3854167	1206893
Cd	2C1	88000	59759	39333	48063	53113	44692	46907	74325	75334	77399	80047	80364	81151	87575	89116	88695	88727	89305	84874	70473	85648	26820

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	7A	561	665	608	721	868	1043	1025	1352	1519	1629	1666	955	1026	1061	977	1026	892	910	815	975	1180	274
HCB	1A4bi	124030	152690	148673	161499	163535	181147	189312	179439	180458	174771	169686	183943	180997	191588	192926	193989	187674	183102	181512	202506	185102	157531