Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: LU      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	3Da1	756	788	850	775	736	722	720	709	695	717	709	605	630	514	652	563	556	528	528	531	548	576	546	534	507	519	548	543	522	552	524
NMVOC	1A2a	597	546	536	553	476	344	395	396	269	330	369	398	378	323	308	256	264	405	319	251	198	199	178	151	141	132	148	104	111	70	92
NMVOC	1A3bi	12043	12891	11569	9543	8125	6448	5606	5011	4334	3882	3546	3141	2774	2579	2322	1982	1683	1532	1378	1208	1061	1027	887	732	677	591	524	484	477	470	336
NMVOC	1A4bi	498	516	493	500	464	478	448	444	431	429	418	444	409	414	431	417	411	371	406	452	468	364	448	492	538	421	503	424	459	255	237
SOx	1A2c	643	900	639	718	662	353	349	187	33	47	23	27	24	19	21	19	11	9	4	3	5	5	9	12	9	5	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A1a										0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	4	7	25	29	30	49	80	133	218
NH3	3B3	204	181	189	200	190	201	195	210	213	221	209	210	211	224	253	267	251	247	243	243	222	232	238	232	235	251	249	260	243	222	225
NH3	3Da1	307	319	345	314	298	293	292	287	282	291	288	245	256	208	264	314	310	294	294	296	341	354	333	322	303	293	291	291	309	301	288
CO	1A2f	30167	28716	29358	24464	28082	13089	13237	13232	13227	13849	1848	5258	4462	3933	4440	4354	4899	7351	3734	1327	1414	1715	1564	2462	967	1303	2079	2462	860	3084	1213

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1a	2	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	11	12	29	55	102	177
PM2.5	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	29	29	102	152
PM10	1A1a	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	4	5	7	6	7	8	8	8	11	12	31	57	105	183
PM10	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	29	29	102	152
PM10	2A5b	26	40	238	426	49	46	32	30	42	129	23	23	22	23	33	196	34	107	46	39	26
TSP	1A1a	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	6	7	6	7	8	8	9	12	13	33	60	111	193
TSP	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	29	29	102	152
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	3752	3983	4426	5490	4012	3968	3792	3487	3435	3569	3213	3068	3013	2943	2903	3150	2726	2844	2740	2606	2384
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3752	3983	4426	5490	4012	3968	3792	3487	3435	3569	3213	3068	3013	2943	2903	3150	2726	2844	2740	2606	2384
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	3752	3983	4426	5490	4012	3968	3792	3487	3435	3569	3213	3068	3013	2943	2903	3150	2726	2844	2740	2606	2384

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2f	104437	83762	128692	111265	198985	34032	79588	17705	7369	7137	48370	141882	485	13593	39629	39071	126672	24533	53927	40338	49317	68093	13740	19396	44885	13289	23809	2046	6338	517	498
Pb	1A2gviii	46275	43025	47104	35668	69441	35390	55182	49327	41779	55710	56579	45411	40758	56378	20016	43372	41635	44070	45349	41570	51845	44328	44247	37712	43545	47303	42785	46209	36793	17600	19091
Pb	1A3bvi	290416	382384	425348	428347	450566	403220	417516	456618	476727	526643	614638	641436	663012	740188	860899	893607	834221	815522	822903	757081	801236	875882	836634	802383	762965	700566	670918	689746	759313	797976	522465
Pb	1A4ai	121874	151522	134658	129610	124069	120685	131828	132186	136419	116491	51265	64197	59756	53656	52783	48514	28708	27196	21271	20215	41339	31060	34617	42980	39318	58744	56523	87230	89105	111625	94949
Pb	2C1	17936287	17050961	15501379	17028291	13990749	8086353	7658633	4637358	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033	253554	345441	162791	140649	175235
Pb	2C3	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	38763	29651	30827	29948	28604	29447	26322	29325	32849	35034	36920	33782	34083	32941	7828	109316	116177	75749	73071	9287	30271	3755	4068	5619	6741
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	18873816	18097592	16647694	18182582	15304018	9120550	8790056	5727911	2002493	1711583	1407548	1385581	1339140	2056260	2332666	1927735	1759296	1669928	1788350	1389569	1392149	1963456	2078093	1495482	1550962	1571832	1476650	1555291	1444346	1451436	1238836
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18873816	18097592	16647694	18182582	15304018	9120550	8790056	5727911	2002493	1711583	1407548	1385581	1339140	2056260	2332666	1927735	1759296	1669928	1788350	1389569	1392149	1963456	2078093	1495482	1550962	1571832	1476650	1555291	1444346	1451436	1238836
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	18873816	18097592	16647694	18182582	15304018	9120550	8790056	5727911	2002493	1711583	1407548	1385581	1339140	2056260	2332666	1927735	1759296	1669928	1788350	1389569	1392149	1963456	2078093	1495482	1550962	1571832	1476650	1555291	1444346	1451436	1238836
Cd	1A2f	7463	6897	7599	6347	8331	977	1582	759	563	111	665	2117	269	291	2931	3053	4041	2875	4702	2477	1535	3098	2034	383	2227	999	649	226	1323	355	245
Cd	2C1	34298	32605	29641	32561	26753	21439	31042	25660	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474	17222	12608	8166	6452	7493
Cd	2G	3951	4004	4059	4113	4170	4227	4290	4345	4400	4460	4522	4577	4635	5148	4919	4345	4082	4186	4263	4170	4223	3980	4269	4024	4077	4226	4082	4370	5247	2681	3358
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	58817	56954
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	58817	56954
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	58817	56954
Hg	1A1a	5190	5431	5417	5153	5042	4919	3825	4580	5905	250	214	13066	3287	3364	3905	6131	6534	6613	5417	3575	5038	2228	3648	3013	2649	2980	2033	2950	4097	6556	10160
Hg	1A2f	46066	42825	46098	38714	49007	5715	8393	4705	2659	3791	6315	17377	2590	1880	17600	18253	22560	17694	20389	6785	11383	20007	14854	18717	9244	5749	35105	8283	6668	6483	3772
Hg	1A4bi	2864	3323	2896	2987	2440	2645	2336	2253	2124	1964	2464	2581	2410	2434	2577	2528	2482	2363	2445	2461	2472	2212	2299	2374	2222	2465	2581	2525	2384	2026	2182
Hg	2C1	305727	290546	263991	289927	238207	191504	131563	89424	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984	59648	23015	16280	55991	36234
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99244	76281
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99244	76281
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99244	76281

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2gviii	71	68	74	57	108	56	86	78	67	90	89	72	65	89	34	121	117	124	130	110	133	117	110	103	121	123	116	117	86	56	41
HCB	1A1a	91994	96252	95974	91303	89329	85311	66002	78185	94071	107716	104652	103331	105068	108986	119812	108295	116113	118594	121591	117280	105751	119049	117154	116801	127755	145981	162099	164373	170631	181983	185663
PCB	1A1a	4810	5033	5018	4774	4671	4460	3456	4258	4090	11	33435	671548	2997	3232	2568	117800	605	18750	21822	24041	1446	11307	13360	7281	9473	9863	19743	10485	9401	15755	25663
PCB	2C1	2775168	2615686	2340710	2554488	2098272	23787481	1740866	1369245	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167	1520300	2687400	1133600	1030800	516200
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	2119140	2174580	870120	2220000	1980000	1980000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39915797	40385538	40312477	40171942	43337052	36166228	17237576	3844853	18120229	16338188	11640033	13391039	15665010	14242423	13831781	12558974	8122722	10590212	12480084	19100707	18818486	26555928	9079687	4274509	5145166	3092193	3827295	3655665	3449279	3113116	2594652
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39915797	40385538	40312477	40171942	43337052	36166228	17237576	3844853	18120229	16338188	11640033	13391039	15665010	14242423	13831781	12558974	8122722	10590212	12480084	19100707	18818486	26555928	9079687	4274509	5145166	3092193	3827295	3655665	3449279	3113116	2594652
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39915797	40385538	40312477	40171942	43337052	36166228	17237576	3844853	18120229	16338188	11640033	13391039	15665010	14242423	13831781	12558974	8122722	10590212	12480084	19100707	18818486	26555928	9079687	4274509	5145166	3092193	3827295	3655665	3449279	3113116	2594652