Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: LU      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NMVOC	1A2a	597	546	536	553	476	344	395	396	269	330	369	398	378	323	308	256	264	405	319	251	198	200	179	151	141	132	148	104	109	70
SOx	1A2c	643	900	639	718	662	353	349	187	33	47	23	27	24	19	21	19	11	9	4	3	5	5	9	12	9	5	1	1	1	1
NH3	3B3	204	181	189	200	190	201	195	210	213	221	209	210	211	224	253	267	251	247	243	243	222	232	238	232	235	251	249	260	243	222
NH3	3Da1	307	319	345	314	298	293	292	287	282	291	288	245	256	208	264	314	310	294	294	296	341	354	333	322	303	293	291	291	309	301
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3867	4366	4283	4825	7266	3649	1241	1376	1603	1459	2384	1052	1258	2147	2402	824	3028

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28	29	99
PM10	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28	29	99
PM10	2A5b	26	40	238	426	49	46	32	30	42	129	23	23	22	23	33	196	34	107	46	39
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1917	2129	2118	2456	1869	1810	1865	1702	1717	1801	1695	1496	1560	1563	1637	1607	1627	1538	1552	1327
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	1917	2129	2118	2456	1869	1810	1865	1702	1717	1801	1695	1496	1560	1563	1637	1607	1627	1538	1552	1327
TSP	1A2gviii	14	13	10	8	6	5	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28	29	99
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	3709	3934	4378	5431	3958	3918	3739	3436	3390	3528	3164	3016	2962	2887	2863	3100	2695	2771	2689	2463
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2428	2657	3099	4027	2301	2241	2267	2112	2152	2461	2083	1908	1960	1951	2023	2361	2008	2079	1941	1694
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	2428	2657	3099	4027	2301	2241	2267	2112	2152	2461	2083	1908	1960	1951	2023	2361	2008	2079	1941	1694

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2f	104437	83762	128692	111265	198985	34032	79588	17705	7369	7137	48370	141882	485	13593	39629	39071	126672	24533	53927	40338	49317	68093	13740	19396	44885	13289	23809	2046	6338	511
Pb	1A2gviii	46275	43025	47104	35668	69441	35390	55182	49327	41779	55710	56579	45411	40758	56378	20016	43372	41635	44070	45349	41570	51845	44328	44247	37712	43545	47303	42785	46209	36793	28769
Pb	1A3bvi	290416	382384	425348	428347	450566	403220	417516	456618	476727	526643	614638	641436	663012	740188	860899	893607	834221	815522	822903	757081	801236	875882	836634	802383	762965	700566	670918	689746	759313	797976
Pb	2A3	180609	155952	155392	157874	163794	168443	170001	164880	147048	172047	177570	176768	173760	144610	165572	166221	163919	159575	158629	156924	156063	160833	157738	115611	143477	146273	147996	138360	139879	136993
Pb	2C1	17936287	17050961	15501379	17028291	13990749	8086353	7658633	4637358	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033	253554	345441	162791	140649
Pb	2C3	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	38763	29651	30827	29948	28604	29447	26322	29325	32849	35034	36920	33782	34083	32941	7828	109316	116177	75749	73071	9287	30271	3755	4068	5619
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	18868417	18089390	16636120	18167604	15286300	9101471	8770568	5708151	1985486	1694189	1390979	1369125	1323888	2038500	2317097	1912310	1746161	1656024	1775023	1375953	1378698	1949171	2065674	1483608	1538337	1556649	1461357	1540705	1430153	1460285
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18868417	18089390	16636120	18167604	15286300	9101471	8770568	5708151	1985486	1694189	1390979	1369125	1323888	2038500	2317097	1912310	1746161	1656024	1775023	1375953	1378698	1949171	2065674	1483608	1538337	1556649	1461357	1540705	1430153	1460285
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	18868417	18089390	16636120	18167604	15286300	9101471	8770568	5708151	1985486	1694189	1390979	1369125	1323888	2038500	2317097	1912310	1746161	1656024	1775023	1375953	1378698	1949171	2065674	1483608	1538337	1556649	1461357	1540705	1430153	1460285
Cd	1A2f	7463	6897	7599	6347	8331	977	1582	759	563	111	665	2117	269	291	2931	3053	4041	2875	4702	2477	1535	3098	2034	383	2227	999	649	226	1323	355
Cd	2A3	30703	26512	26417	26839	27845	28635	28900	28030	24998	29248	30187	30051	29539	24584	28147	28258	27866	27128	26967	26677	26531	27342	26816	19654	24391	24866	25159	23521	23780	23289
Cd	2C1	34298	32605	29641	32561	26753	21439	31042	25660	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474	17222	12608	8166	6452
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	64077
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	64077
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	94797	89419	87027	89041	86579	69922	81156	74292	56705	57835	58914	65269	68863	73083	147264	85602	86958	86717	417265	128977	74682	70581	109254	61327	74856	80926	81490	73385	70693	64077
Hg	1A1a	5190	5431	5417	5153	5042	4919	3825	4580	5905	250	214	13066	3287	3364	3905	6131	6534	6613	5417	3575	5038	2228	3648	3013	2649	2980	2033	2950	4097	6539
Hg	1A2f	46066	42825	46098	38714	49007	5715	8393	4705	2659	3791	6315	17377	2590	1880	17600	18253	22560	17694	20389	6785	11383	20007	14854	18717	9244	5749	35105	8283	6668	6474
Hg	1A4bi	2864	3323	2896	2987	2440	2645	2336	2253	2124	1964	2464	2581	2410	2434	2577	2528	2482	2363	2445	2461	2472	2212	2299	2374	2222	2465	2581	2525	2384	2247
Hg	2C1	305727	290546	263991	289927	238207	191504	131563	89424	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984	59648	23015	16280	55991
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99466
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99466
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	414423	398056	375259	393195	352594	228714	171549	126396	88151	215473	271352	286462	148249	208181	164147	200983	296646	271475	163769	64875	68912	60333	86898	163018	68370	84187	125462	63454	56933	99466

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A1a	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	3	6	42	14	15	17	110	117	32	14	18	23	15	24	18	40	48	43	70	111	182
DIOX	1A2gviii	71	68	74	57	108	56	86	78	67	90	89	72	65	89	34	121	117	124	130	110	133	117	110	103	121	123	116	117	86	56
HCB	1A1a	91994	96252	95974	91303	89329	85311	66002	78185	94071	107716	104652	103331	105068	108986	119812	108295	116113	118594	121591	117280	105751	119049	117154	116801	127755	145981	162099	164373	170631	181983
PCB	1A1a	4810	5033	5018	4774	4671	4460	3456	4258	4090	11	33435	671548	2997	3232	2568	117800	605	18750	21822	24041	1446	11307	13360	7281	9473	9863	19743	10485	9401	15755
PCB	2C1	2775168	2615686	2340710	2554488	2098272	23787481	1740866	1369245	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167	1520300	2687400	1133600	1030800
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	2119140	2174580	870120	136620000	10980000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39915772	40385498	40312427	40171887	43336988	36166166	17237509	3844777	18120147	16338095	11639926	13390925	15664891	14242294	13831638	12558829	8122583	10590076	12479950	19100582	18818372	26555825	9079606	4274451	5145130	3092171	3827284	3655661	137849280	12113116
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39915772	40385498	40312427	40171887	43336988	36166166	17237509	3844777	18120147	16338095	11639926	13390925	15664891	14242294	13831638	12558829	8122583	10590076	12479950	19100582	18818372	26555825	9079606	4274451	5145130	3092171	3827284	3655661	137849280	12113116
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39915772	40385498	40312427	40171887	43336988	36166166	17237509	3844777	18120147	16338095	11639926	13390925	15664891	14242294	13831638	12558829	8122583	10590076	12479950	19100582	18818372	26555825	9079606	4274451	5145130	3092171	3827284	3655661	137849280	12113116