Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	1A2a	597	546	536	553	476	241	248	152	27	35	15	11	10	32	103	57	68	405	319	251	198	200	179	151	141	132	148	104	100
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18350	17944	16820	16167	15140	15101	14909	14043	13365	13050	12192	12236	12489	11255	12747	9295	10929	10268	11745	10839	7133	7218	7827	7590	6911	6652	6753	6756	6682
SOx	1A2a	12151	11760	11126	12009	9946	4993	4752	2562	144	129	36	38	34	11	118	54	116	417	232	294	160	138	294	422	273	153	156	209	138
SOx	1A2gviii	214	270	234	189	362	229	286	237	202	323	324	276	250	260	98	85	57	55	46	41	120	50	53	18	8	66	28	106	105
NH3	3B3	192	170	178	189	179	190	184	200	203	212	202	202	204	218	249	263	247	244	240	239	218	230	237	231	234	252	251	261	243
NH3	3Da1	945	984	1062	969	920	903	900	886	869	896	887	756	788	642	815	704	695	660	660	664	685	719	682	667	634	649	685	679	652
CO	1A2a	346464	329215	299129	328427	269872	142490	130438	72310	37	47	24	16	15	64	2982	1655	1912	5069	4416	5345	4845	3125	4878	4490	5163	3274	3933	4339	3860
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3867	4366	4283	4825	7266	3649	1241	1376	1603	1459	2384	1052	1258	2147	2402	824

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2gviii	14	13	11	8	6	6	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28	29
PM10	1A2gviii	14	13	11	8	6	6	6	4	4	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28	29
PM10	2A5b	26	40	238	426	49	46	32	30	42	129	23	23	22	23	33	196	34	107	57
PM10	2D3b	75	67	65	108	49	50	51	57	55	62	56	70	63	55	62	55	69	62	60
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1775	1979	1953	2306	1721	1663	1705	1562	1583	1675	1541	1343	1410	1395	1510	1488	1525	1423	1495
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	1775	1979	1953	2306	1721	1663	1705	1562	1583	1675	1541	1343	1410	1395	1510	1488	1525	1423	1495
TSP	2D3b	323	289	282	468	210	219	220	246	237	268	245	305	274	237	269	237	300	267	262
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	3535	3748	4174	5239	3834	3797	3608	3327	3288	3444	3049	2924	2866	2761	2839	3069	2730	2775	2781
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2254	2471	2895	3835	2177	2121	2136	2004	2051	2378	1968	1816	1864	1825	1999	2330	2043	2083	2032
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	2254	2471	2895	3835	2177	2121	2136	2004	2051	2378	1968	1816	1864	1825	1999	2330	2043	2083	2032

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2f	104437	83762	128692	111265	198985	34032	79588	17705	7369	7137	48370	141882	485	13593	39629	39071	126672	24533	53927	40338	49317	68093	13740	19396	44885	13289	23809	2046	6338
Pb	1A2gviii	46346	43086	47171	35721	69541	35442	55261	49399	41843	55809	56674	45496	40843	56518	20016	43374	41635	44070	45349	41570	51845	44328	44247	37712	43545	47303	42785	46209	36796
Pb	2A3	180609	155952	155392	157874	163794	168443	170001	164880	147048	172047	177570	176768	173760	144610	165572	166221	163919	159575	158629	156924	156063	160833	157738	115611	143477	146273	147996	138360	139879
Pb	2C1	17936287	17050961	15501379	17028291	13990749	8086353	7658633	4637358	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033	253554	345441	162791
Pb	2C3	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	41523	32411	33587	32708	31485	32242	28781	32456	36521	35632	38955	35876	35947	32941	8090	109562	115500	75923	74828	9287	30282	3764	4068
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	18789479	17933473	16447628	17987814	15088442	8956963	8623001	5532043	1802724	1470740	1088443	1058753	1007662	1655625	1822186	1388944	1296673	1242480	1373736	1040527	1002442	1508043	1666268	1122625	1238156	1325624	1269316	1337977	1199805
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18789479	17933473	16447628	17987814	15088442	8956963	8623001	5532043	1802724	1470740	1088443	1058753	1007662	1655625	1822186	1388944	1296673	1242480	1373736	1040527	1002442	1508043	1666268	1122625	1238156	1325624	1269316	1337977	1199805
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	18789479	17933473	16447628	17987814	15088442	8956963	8623001	5532043	1802724	1470740	1088443	1058753	1007662	1655625	1822186	1388944	1296673	1242480	1373736	1040527	1002442	1508043	1666268	1122625	1238156	1325624	1269316	1337977	1199805
Cd	1A2f	7463	6897	7599	6347	8331	977	1582	759	563	111	665	2117	269	291	2931	3053	4041	2875	4702	2477	1535	3098	2034	383	2227	999	649	226	1323
Cd	1A2gviii	627	586	641	488	942	484	750	673	572	767	772	622	560	772	281	11727	11395	12208	13001	10107	11618	10538	9235	9556	11623	10855	10866	9830	6095
Cd	2A3	30703	26512	26417	26839	27845	28635	28900	28030	24998	29248	30187	30051	29539	24584	28147	28258	27866	27128	26967	26677	26531	27342	26816	19654	24391	24866	25159	23521	23780
Cd	2C1	34298	32605	29641	32561	26753	21439	31042	25660	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474	17222	12608	8166
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	93972	88257	85760	87771	85250	68730	79981	72974	55282	56170	56861	63055	66545	70353	143917	82029	83453	83312	413729	125679	71147	66694	105555	57745	71498	77799	78217	70145	66153
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	93972	88257	85760	87771	85250	68730	79981	72974	55282	56170	56861	63055	66545	70353	143917	82029	83453	83312	413729	125679	71147	66694	105555	57745	71498	77799	78217	70145	66153
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	93972	88257	85760	87771	85250	68730	79981	72974	55282	56170	56861	63055	66545	70353	143917	82029	83453	83312	413729	125679	71147	66694	105555	57745	71498	77799	78217	70145	66153
Hg	1A1a	5177	5417	5403	5140	5029	4907	3816	4569	5905	250	214	13066	3373	3439	3905	6247	6534	6613	5417	3575	5038	2228	3648	3013	2649	2980	2033	2949	4097
Hg	1A2f	46066	42825	46098	38714	49007	5715	8393	4705	2659	3791	6315	17377	2590	1880	17600	18253	22560	17694	20389	6785	11383	20007	14854	18717	9244	5749	35105	8283	6668
Hg	1A4bi	2864	3323	2896	2987	2440	2645	2336	2253	2124	1964	2464	2581	2410	2434	2577	2528	2482	2363	2445	2461	2472	2212	2299	2374	2222	2465	2581	2525	2378
Hg	2C1	305727	290546	263991	289927	238207	191504	131563	89424	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984	59648	23015	16280
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	409379	397852	375083	393021	352427	228514	171337	126187	87943	215232	271123	286227	148081	207948	163896	200865	296377	271227	163475	64579	68657	60047	86631	162770	68123	83730	124727	62813	56385
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	409379	397852	375083	393021	352427	228514	171337	126187	87943	215232	271123	286227	148081	207948	163896	200865	296377	271227	163475	64579	68657	60047	86631	162770	68123	83730	124727	62813	56385
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	409379	397852	375083	393021	352427	228514	171337	126187	87943	215232	271123	286227	148081	207948	163896	200865	296377	271227	163475	64579	68657	60047	86631	162770	68123	83730	124727	62813	56385

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A1a	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	3	6	42	14	15	17	114	117	32	14	18	23	15	24	18	40	48	43	70	111
DIOX	1A2gviii	72	68	74	57	108	57	87	78	67	90	89	72	65	89	34	121	117	124	130	110	133	117	110	103	121	123	116	117	86
HCB	1A1a	97557	102072	101777	96824	94731	90470	69993	82913	99636	114087	110841	109442	111182	114632	119812	113384	117938	121119	122360	115194	106471	114938	114184	111244	123191	134804	149093	153015	159403
PCB	1A1a	4919	5147	5132	4882	4777	4562	3535	4356	4090	11	33435	671548	2985	3232	2568	126393	605	18750	21822	24041	1446	11307	13360	7281	9473	9863	19743	10481	9396
PCB	2C1	2775168	2615686	2340710	2554488	2098272	23787481	1740866	1369245	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167	1520300	2687400	1133600
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	2119140	2174580	870120	870120
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39916218	40385943	40312867	40172319	43337460	35855354	16722363	3465437	17723671	15950348	11261377	13007009	15290505	13813900	13345483	12030488	8003728	10478922	12371616	19005709	18709137	26451426	9079842	4259644	5130824	3078341	3821580	3650527	2094235
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39916218	40385943	40312867	40172319	43337460	35855354	16722363	3465437	17723671	15950348	11261377	13007009	15290505	13813900	13345483	12030488	8003728	10478922	12371616	19005709	18709137	26451426	9079842	4259644	5130824	3078341	3821580	3650527	2094235
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39916218	40385943	40312867	40172319	43337460	35855354	16722363	3465437	17723671	15950348	11261377	13007009	15290505	13813900	13345483	12030488	8003728	10478922	12371616	19005709	18709137	26451426	9079842	4259644	5130824	3078341	3821580	3650527	2094235