Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	1A2a	361	342	316	343	287	152	140	82	7	9	5	5	4	5	93	55	59	398	308	242	186	195	175	145	140	130	145	102
NMVOC	2D3a	1130	1130	1130	1130	1121	1275	1370	1372	1311	1389	1369	1410	1538	1273	1727	1698	1415	1227	1801	1636	1388	1585	1840	2002	1730	1954	1973	2229
NMVOC	2D3e	910	910	910	910	903	1028	1093	1084	1027	1078	1054	1114	1248	1061	1363	1250	1034	890	1296	1169	985	1101	1252	1337	1136	1261	1273	1438
SOx	1A2a	11227	10724	9907	10843	9011	4654	4248	2388	144	130	36	38	34	11	118	54	116	417	232	294	160	138	294	422	273	153	156	209
SOx	1A2gviii	214	269	234	188	362	228	286	236	201	323	324	276	250	259	98	85	57	55	45	41	120	49	53	18	8	65	28	106
SOx	1A4bi	823	1003	869	862	753	769	749	741	731	632	932	990	909	918	967	931	958	913	472	468	396	315	371	353	295	338	44	35
NH3	3B3	136	120	126	134	127	134	130	142	145	152	144	144	146	156	180	190	178	175	172	172	156	166	171	167	170	183	182	186
NH3	3Da1	984	1062	969	920	903	907	893	875	889	902	891	760	792	645	818	712	702	666	666	669	668	743	684	668	636	650	687	679
CO	1A2a	346464	329215	299129	328427	269872	142490	130438	72310	37	47	24	16	15	64	2982	1655	1912	5069	4416	5345	4845	3125	4878	4490	5163	3274	3933	4339
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3867	4366	4283	4825	7266	3649	1241	1376	1603	1459	2384	1052	1258	2147	2401

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A2gviii	15	13	11	9	7	7	7	5	5	7	6	6	7	8	6	19	63	27
PM2.5	5E	42	43	46	56	45	42	48	43	51	51	44	50	46	42	42	51	97	75
PM10	1A2gviii	16	15	13	11	8	8	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	8	6	19	64	28
PM10	2A5b	26	40	238	426	49	46	32	30	42	129	23	23	22	23	33	196	34	112
PM10	2D3b	75	67	65	108	49	50	51	57	55	62	56	64	58	52	62	57	71	61
PM10	5E	42	43	46	56	45	42	48	43	51	51	44	50	46	42	42	51	97	75
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	1836	2043	2019	2371	1788	1729	1768	1630	1665	1768	1640	1446	1520	1514	1648	1630	1671	1579
TSP	2D3b	323	289	282	468	210	219	220	246	237	268	245	279	250	224	268	245	306	265
TSP	5E	42	43	46	56	45	42	48	43	51	51	44	50	46	42	42	51	97	75
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	3641	3865	4291	5354	3941	3898	3698	3422	3395	3558	3176	3029	2984	2908	3012	3252	2918	2962
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	2355	2581	3007	3942	2282	2223	2239	2117	2181	2519	2123	1952	2008	1990	2191	2532	2250	2305

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2f	104437	83762	128692	111265	198985	34032	79588	17705	7369	7137	48370	141882	485	13593	39629	39071	126672	24533	53927	40338	49317	68093	13740	19396	44885	13289	23809	2044
Pb	1A2gviii	42849	40047	43822	33102	64577	32843	51329	45820	38650	50876	51920	41245	36693	49627	20016	43374	41635	44074	45353	41573	51849	44330	44251	37718	43551	47293	42779	46209
Pb	2A3	180609	155952	155392	157874	163794	168443	170001	164880	147048	172047	177570	176768	173760	144610	165572	166221	163919	159575	158629	156924	156063	160833	157738	115611	143477	146273	147996	138360
Pb	2C1	17936287	17050961	15501379	17028291	13990749	8086353	7658633	4637358	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033	253554	345441
Pb	2C3	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	41523	32411	33587	32708	31485	32242	28781	32456	36521	35632	38955	35876	35947	32941	8090	109562	115500	75923	74828	9287	30282	3764
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	18785329	17929780	16443625	17984540	15082822	8953708	8618413	5527808	1798874	1465149	1083094	1053942	996263	1641100	1814392	1388359	1296070	1241917	1373169	1039928	1001857	1507574	1665672	1122650	1238720	1322191	1289115	1364526
Cd	1A2gviii	580	545	596	452	875	449	697	625	530	700	708	565	504	680	281	11727	11395	12209	13001	10108	11618	10538	9235	9557	11623	10854	10866	9830
Cd	2A3	30703	26512	26417	26839	27845	28635	28900	28030	24998	29248	30187	30051	29539	24584	28147	28258	27866	27128	26967	26677	26531	27342	26816	19654	24391	24866	25159	23521
Cd	2C1	34298	32605	29641	32561	26753	21439	31042	25660	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474	17222	12608
Cd	2G	1976	2003	2030	2057	2086	2115	2146	2174	2202	2234	2264	2291	2323	2580	2471	2184	2046	2120	2163	2114	2131	2026	2173	2067	2074	2121	2121	2121
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	91976	86258	83729	85723	83143	66626	77827	70798	53085	53921	54604	60788	63309	66775	140531	79936	81480	81310	411695	123681	69118	64803	103516	55793	69499	75671	76258	69921
Hg	1A1a	5177	5417	5403	5140	5029	4907	3816	4569	5905	250	235	13099	1836	1876	2262	6273	6554	6634	5439	3590	5057	2248	3660	3022	2658	2985	2039	3182
Hg	1A2f	46066	42825	46098	38714	49007	5715	8393	4705	2659	3791	6315	17377	2590	1880	17600	18253	22560	17694	20389	6785	11383	20007	14854	18717	9244	5749	35105	8280
Hg	1A4bi	2864	3323	2896	2987	2440	2645	2336	2253	2124	1964	2464	2581	2410	2434	2577	2528	2482	2363	2445	2461	2472	2212	2299	2374	2222	2465	2581	2557
Hg	2C1	305727	290546	263991	289927	238207	191504	131563	89424	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984	59648	23015
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	413102	396853	373988	392132	350848	227618	170056	125002	86867	213633	269585	284854	145151	204182	161233	199996	295525	270316	162611	63619	67633	58741	85274	161575	66879	82273	123169	62655

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	3	6	42	14	15	17	114	117	32	15	18	23	15	24	18	40	48	43	77
DIOX	1A2gviii	66	63	69	53	101	53	81	73	62	83	82	66	59	79	34	121	117	125	130	111	133	117	110	103	121	123	116	117
HCB	1A1a	97557	102072	101777	96824	94731	90470	69993	82913	99636	114087	110841	109442	111182	114632	119812	113384	117938	121119	122360	115194	106471	114938	114184	111244	123194	134808	149097	153964
PCB	1A1a	4919	5147	5132	4882	4777	4562	3535	4356	4090	11	33528	671691	3096	3328	2685	126504	693	18842	21917	24103	1526	11396	13414	7322	9511	9884	19769	11033
PCB	2C1	2775168	2615686	2340710	2554488	2098272	23787481	1740866	1369245	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167	1520300	2687400
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	2119140	2174580	870120
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39911774	40382072	40308603	40168983	43331149	35852043	16717359	3460878	17719601	15944042	11255440	13001760	15285352	13805256	13345599	12030598	8003814	10479297	12371968	19006034	18709478	26451661	9080178	4260111	5131256	3078383	3805423	3642324