Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2f	3370	3135	3484	3244	3594	3213	3237	3171	2925	3254	3174	3694	2788	2090	2635	2715	3219	3221	2968	3095	3173	3933	3387	1722	2583	2199	2421
NMVOC	1A2a	361	342	316	343	287	152	140	82	7	9	5	5	4	5	93	55	58	398	308	242	186	195	175	145	140	130	145
NMVOC	2D3a	1130	1130	1130	1130	1121	1275	1370	1372	1311	1389	1369	1410	1538	1273	1727	1698	1415	1227	1801	1636	1388	1611	1900	2094	1878	2285	2320
NMVOC	2D3e	910	910	910	910	903	1028	1093	1084	1027	1078	1054	1114	1248	1061	1363	1250	1034	890	1296	1169	985	1119	1293	1399	1232	1474	1497
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	18240	17783	16798	15958	15035	15083	14955	14295	13669	13391	12664	12776	13037	11854	13433	12944	11591	10958	12486	11640	7095	7331	8010	8272	7604	8337	8649
SOx	1A2a	11227	10724	9907	10843	9011	4654	4248	2388	144	130	36	38	34	11	118	54	116	417	232	294	160	138	294	422	273	153	155
SOx	1A2gviii	214	269	234	188	362	228	286	236	201	323	323	287	250	259	108	85	57	55	45	55	141	65	68	8	6	83	46
NH3	3Da1	984	1062	969	920	903	907	893	875	889	902	891	760	792	645	818	712	702	666	666	669	668	743	684	697	636	650	687
CO	1A2a	346464	329215	299129	328427	269872	142490	130438	72310	37	47	24	16	15	64	2982	1655	1912	5069	4416	5345	4845	3125	4878	4490	5163	3272	3933
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3868	4366	4283	4825	7266	3649	1241	1376	1603	1459	2384	1052	1258	2146

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A2gviii	15	14	11	9	7	7	7	5	5	7	7	7	7	7	6	19	63
PM10	2A5b	26	40	238	426	49	46	32	30	42	129	23	23	22	23	33	196	31
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	2022	2230	2208	2595	2042	1997	2010	1863	1895	1973	1869	1687	1746	1724	1834	1774	1826
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	4497	4798	5274	6331	5305	5344	5075	4759	4766	4801	4531	4451	4370	4278	4292	4458	4060
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	2474	2736	3182	3998	2530	2476	2499	2375	2466	2784	2425	2238	2322	2316	2501	2856	2548

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2f	104437	83762	128692	111265	198985	34032	79588	17705	7369	7137	48370	141882	485	13593	39629	39071	126672	24533	53927	40338	49317	68093	13740	19396	44885	13289	23807
Pb	1A2gviii	43342	40476	44295	33472	65277	33210	51883	46325	39101	51572	52591	41846	37278	50599	20018	43374	41635	44074	45346	41574	51852	44333	44254	37716	43552	47298	42778
Pb	1A3bi	23620009	18597862	21041642	15828973	12189818	10129201	7891668	6013854	6326789	2375691	88491	90755	92779	95420	99051	98263	103753	105913	110792	113689	115206	114415	118537	119162	124390	123735	123735
Pb	1A3bvi	235724	244876	326320	333744	330674	343889	354243	366696	380106	391697	421015	442794	462953	481991	462806	436379	489165	507155	530490	537295	563615	562235	579124	584656	608296	618856	618856
Pb	2A3	180609	155952	155392	157874	163794	168443	170001	164880	147048	172047	177570	176768	173760	144610	165572	166221	163919	159575	158629	156924	156063	160833	157738	115611	143477	146273	147996
Pb	2C1	17936287	17050961	15501379	17028291	13990749	8086353	7658633	4637358	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033	253554
Pb	2C3	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	41523	32411	33587	32708	31485	32242	28781	32456	36521	35632	38955	35876	35947	32941	8090	109562	115500	75923	74828	9287	30306
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	43595493	37454165	38047304	34236714	27595968	19339015	16691019	11668456	8247954	3900870	1253962	1220615	1175359	1838269	1983348	1525004	1495113	1445905	1591392	1265188	1234340	1734875	1907891	1360441	1489985	1558516	1494103
Cd	1A2f	7463	6897	7599	6347	8331	977	1582	759	563	111	665	2117	269	291	2931	3053	4041	2875	4702	2477	1535	3098	2034	383	2227	999	649
Cd	1A2gviii	587	551	602	457	885	454	705	631	536	710	717	573	512	693	281	11727	11395	12209	13001	10108	11618	10538	9235	9557	11623	10854	10866
Cd	1A3bi	2139	2209	3141	3127	3084	3139	3205	3250	3271	3214	3281	3292	3301	3337	3395	3286	3407	3402	3509	3569	3551	3528	3613	3623	3779	3760	3760
Cd	1A3bvi	1397	1448	1915	1975	1950	2032	2090	2166	2249	2313	2492	2626	2748	2861	2752	2548	2911	3025	3166	3196	3384	3381	3471	3506	3642	3674	3674
Cd	2A3	30703	26512	26417	26839	27845	28635	28900	28030	24998	29248	30187	30051	29539	24584	28147	28258	27866	27128	26967	26677	26531	27342	26816	19654	24391	24866	25159
Cd	2C1	34298	32605	29641	32561	26753	21439	31042	25660	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474	17222
Cd	2G	1976	2003	2030	2057	2086	2115	2146	2174	2202	2234	2264	2291	2323	2580	2471	2184	2046	2120	2163	2114	2131	2026	2173	2067	2074	2170	2170
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	96253	90871	89381	91316	88545	72125	83619	76584	59034	59555	59502	66038	68614	72117	145599	84548	86505	86415	416942	129060	75335	70768	109779	62261	76115	82632	83536
Hg	1A1a	5177	5417	5403	5140	5029	4907	3816	4569	5905	250	235	13099	1836	1876	2262	6273	6554	6634	5439	3590	5057	2248	3660	3022	2658	2985	2039
Hg	1A2f	46066	42825	46098	38714	49007	5715	8393	4705	2659	3791	6315	17377	2590	1910	17600	18253	22560	17694	20389	6785	11383	20014	14854	18720	9244	5749	35102
Hg	1A3bi	1664	1703	2452	2441	2401	2436	2476	2498	2498	2433	2463	2443	2421	2418	2423	2306	2357	2315	2366	2392	2370	2354	2396	2399	2500	2487	2487
Hg	1A4bi	2796	3235	2832	2914	2401	2590	2314	2224	2112	1953	2461	2582	2408	2433	2579	2532	2487	2365	2447	2467	2480	2213	2300	2372	2219	2463	2473
Hg	2C1	305727	290546	263991	289927	238207	191504	131563	89424	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984	59648
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	413497	396516	373673	391558	350582	227365	170477	124673	86387	212629	267301	281531	141630	200513	154736	192447	288939	263700	156256	58403	62587	51982	80011	156562	62081	78362	120361

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	3	6	42	14	15	17	114	117	32	15	18	23	15	24	18	40	48	43
DIOX	1A2gviii	66	63	69	53	101	53	81	73	62	83	82	66	59	79	34	121	117	125	130	111	133	117	110	103	121	123	116
HCB	1A1a	97557	102072	101777	96824	94731	90470	69993	82913	99636	114087	110841	109442	111182	114632	119812	113384	117938	121119	122360	115194	106471	114938	114184	111244	123194	134808	149097
HCB	1A2a	45	45	45	45	45	1071902	541107	322930	989924	1015488	397881	815885	293616	335892	337453	339180	426824	521829	319918	307696	227867	203441	204407	180986	205688	269568	235261
PCB	1A1a	4919	5147	5132	4882	4777	4562	3535	4356	4090	11	33528	671691	3096	3328	2685	126504	693	18842	21917	24103	1526	11396	13414	7322	9511	9884	19769
PCB	2C1	2775168	2615686	2340710	2554488	2098272	23787481	1740866	1369245	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167	1520300
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	2100000	2100000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39911508	40381806	40308358	40168723	43330903	35851831	16717149	3460666	17719398	15943820	11255247	13001549	15285125	13805019	13345382	12030361	8003446	10478919	12371084	19005691	18709250	26451464	9079966	4259465	5130608	3058947	3731669