Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2f	3370	3135	3484	3244	3594	3213	3237	3171	2925	3254	3174	3694	2788	2090	2635	2715	3219	3231	2978	3106	3178	3933	3387	1722	2583	2199
NMVOC	1A2a	361	342	316	343	287	152	140	82	7	9	5	5	4	5	93	55	59	399	308	242	186	195	175	146	140	130
NMVOC	3B1a	748	701	697	696	676	685	681	661	658	651	636	635	630	613	607	603	592	602	611	621	637	626	618	644	664	699
SOx	1A2a	11227	10724	9907	10843	9011	4654	4248	2388	144	130	36	38	34	11	118	54	116	417	232	294	160	138	294	423	273	153
NH3	1A3	6	32	78	121	156	184	212	240	263	278	281	269	244	216	186	155	132	114	101	89	81	75	71	67	68	68
NH3	1A3bi	12	77	205	316	424	464	527	611	674	746	797	774	717	682	611	512	425	379	334	287	254	252	228	198	188	176
CO	1A2a	346464	329215	299129	328427	269872	142490	130438	72310	37	47	24	16	15	64	2982	1656	1915	5072	4419	5348	4847	3127	4880	4492	5164	3274
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3868	4366	4283	4825	7270	3652	1244	1378	1603	1459	2384	1052	1258
CO	1A2gvii	589	666	721	782	814	852	815	857	862	922	958	975	1002	946	922	863	856	932	820	807	814	838	789	813	866	807
CO	1A3biii	1550	1970	2131	2207	2056	1851	1890	2088	2157	2315	2824	2966	3114	3569	4604	5185	5011	4872	5131	4614	5156	5412	4992	4829	4030	3082

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A2gvii	113	120	120	112	106	95	89	82	70	64	60	58	50	48	45	42
PM10	1A2gvii	113	120	120	112	106	95	89	82	70	64	60	58	50	48	45	42
TSP	1A2gvii	113	120	120	112	106	95	89	82	70	64	60	58	50	48	45	42

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2a	17946214	17060910	15511357	17038258	14000689	7385450	6762921	3745739	100	103	79	88	88	69	88	80	96	81	82	62	77	60	51	49	50	51
Pb	1A2b	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	41523	32411	33587	32708	31485	32242	28781	32448	36521	35034	38547	35517	35592	32941	7828	109316	115500	75957	74877	9287
Pb	1A2f	120088	97376	143698	123004	221225	45683	97206	33744	21680	29223	69660	160920	19070	44446	55436	53583	140942	39064	68154	55832	64884	86513	34214	37628	64697	29499
Pb	1A3bi	23620009	18597862	21041642	15828973	12189818	10129201	7891668	6013854	6326789	2375691	88491	90755	92779	95420	99051	98263	103753	105913	110792	113689	115206	114415	118537	119162	124390	123735
Pb	1A3bvi	235724	244876	326320	333744	330674	343889	354243	366696	380106	391697	421015	442794	462953	481991	462806	436379	489165	507155	530490	537295	563615	562235	579124	584656	608296	605393
Pb	2A3	180609	159160	162029	163489	169376	173334	174352	169863	151671	175586	181974	180348	176715	148256	169982	169617	167279	162721	160749	156924	156063	160833	157738	115611	143477	146084
Pb	2C1						702733	897534	893418	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326	325033
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	43598872	37439817	38064890	34256425	27617381	19363444	16713774	11693090	8268546	3923579	1291145	1229295	1203126	1859555	1983626	1488605	1493792	1467825	1606543	1428397	1354563	1794855	1919549	1372142	1480049	1532468
Cd	1A2a	34446	32755	29794	32712	26902	14154	12963	7192	8	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	8	7	7	5	6	5	4	4	4	4
Cd	1A2gviii	377	367	401	299	585	296	467	416	344	410	428	316	263	288	79	11540	11210	12018	12812	9902	11412	10292	8959	9310	11356	10635
Cd	1A3bi	2139	2209	3141	3127	3084	3139	3205	3250	3271	3214	3281	3292	3301	3337	3395	3286	3407	3402	3509	3569	3551	3528	3613	3623	3779	3760
Cd	1A3bvi	1397	1448	1915	1975	1950	2032	2090	2166	2249	2313	2492	2626	2748	2861	2752	2548	2911	3025	3166	3196	3384	3381	3471	3506	3642	3625
Cd	2A3	30703	27057	27545	27793	28794	29467	29640	28877	25784	29850	30936	30659	30042	25203	28897	28835	28438	27663	27327	26677	26531	27342	26816	19654	24391	24834
Cd	2C1						7321	18114	18501	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573	18474
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	94340	89479	88549	90285	87482	70918	82292	75341	57705	58008	58075	64448	66892	70290	144001	83035	85108	84912	415223	127022	73282	68806	107686	60620	73607	78846
Hg	1A1a	5177	5417	5403	5140	5029	4907	3816	4569	5905	250	235	13099	1836	1876	2262	6273	6554	6634	5439	3590	5057	2248	3660	2948	1864	2077
Hg	1A2a	314499	298603	271779	297628	245052	130625	119844	67574	2027	2156	1962	2317	2292	2445	2728	2702	3350	3086	3095	2422	2783	2383	2198	2057	2016	2047
Hg	1A2gviii	1966	2973	3365	3072	4206	2757	3572	3987	3751	4228	2754	2252	1980	2258	1349	1821	1746	1697	1587	1467	1931	1390	1342	1112	1187	1582
Hg	1A3bi	1664	1703	2452	2441	2401	2436	2476	2498	2498	2433	2463	2443	2421	2418	2423	2306	2357	2315	2366	2392	2370	2354	2396	2399	2500	2487
Hg	1A4bi	2789	3227	2825	2906	2393	2582	2307	2217	2114	1950	2458	2574	2400	2425	2572	2525	2479	2358	2440	2460	2474	2206	2293	2365	2212	2387
Hg	2C1						65821	16514	25701	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690	46984
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	413453	396495	373706	391559	350579	227350	170473	124697	86426	212552	267235	281476	141635	200718	154950	192632	289119	263824	156326	58419	62630	51961	79949	156703	61501	77585

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	3	6	42	14	15	17	114	117	32	15	18	23	15	24	15	14	18
DIOX	1A2gviii	43	43	47	36	68	35	54	49	42	50	50	37	32	36	12	101	97	104	109	88	110	89	79	75	91	98
HCB	1A1a	97557	102072	101777	96824	94731	90470	69993	82913	99636	114087	110841	109442	111182	114632	119812	113384	117938	121119	122360	115194	106471	114938	120623	114214	121442	138675
PCB	1A1a	4919	5147	5132	4882	4777	4562	3535	4356	4090	11	33528	671691	3096	3328	2685	126504	693	18842	21917	24103	1526	11396	13414	7151	7671	7788
PCB	2C1						22687558	743150	813023	4543423	5521792	2807069	1409283	1132317	2286134	765570	418421	1860613	1518928	2336355	1426196	689764	1007714	989774	2064553	1004994	848167
PCB	2K	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	20640000	11580000	14220000	1560000	12660000	9900000	7860000	10260000	13680000	10980000	12000000	10860000	5760000	8700000	9780000	17340000	17760000	25200000	7960860	2092620	3995640	3995640
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39914239	40384501	40312412	40171603	43333563	36165337	17235789	3844578	18120731	16331465	11633757	13386655	15663833	14245435	13845468	12448600	8108265	10576493	12463958	19084516	18808611	26543943	9080281	4271245	5141692	4965295