Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2f	3370	3135	3484	3244	3594	3213	3237	3171	2925	3254	3174	3694	2788	2086	2635	2715	3219	3221	2968	3095	3173	3932	3387	1722	2583
NMVOC	1A2a	362	342	316	344	288	152	140	82	7	9	6	5	4	3	93	55	59	400	310	244	189	194	176	148	140
NMVOC	1A3bi	11382	12566	12062	10657	9720	8173	7470	6888	6082	5500	5014	4383	3817	3508	3109	2598	2174	1958	1751	1527	1355	1345	1222	1060	1065
SOx	1A2a	11227	10724	9907	10843	9011	4654	4248	2388	144	130	36	38	34	11	118	54	117	417	232	294	161	138	294	423	273
NH3	1A3	6	23	56	88	118	143	167	193	221	241	250	247	233	217	196	172	154	138	125	111	99	90	81	75	58
NH3	1A3bi	13	59	155	244	337	379	440	524	597	681	745	740	702	690	642	555	472	428	384	334	296	294	270	237	199
NH3	3Da1	1595	1721	1570	1490	1462	1469	1447	1418	1440	1462	1443	1231	1283	1045	1325	1153	1137	1078	1080	1084	1082	1204	1108	1130	1130
CO	1A2a	346466	329216	299131	328432	269874	142493	130442	72313	37	47	30	16	15	29	2984	1655	1927	5094	4446	5381	4891	3116	4908	4527	5161
CO	1A2f	30108	28652	29293	24397	28016	13023	13175	13168	13162	13779	1778	5190	4394	3867	4366	4283	4825	7266	3649	1241	1376	1603	1459	2384	2523
CO	1A3bi	81197	89470	85777	76187	69944	59477	55083	51719	47058	43740	41068	37287	33737	32070	29121	24687	20802	18770	16783	14580	12889	12701	11536	9904	10210

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A2a	17962886	17084687	15541855	17066725	14026717	7401292	6777526	3758954	12638	10924	10113	10505	10748	5377	7605	6053	6989	5081	5190	3606	5473	3156	59	58	46
Pb	1A2b	20518	21497	21729	21218	22389	26085	41523	32411	33587	32708	31485	32242	28353	31988	35977	34484	37970	34922	35074	32941	7222	108719	115500	75957	141476
Pb	1A2f	123514	102839	149692	129612	229289	53592	105291	42334	29445	36674	72208	163519	21944	46491	57260	55310	142334	40474	69273	57000	66084	87888	34214	37628	64694
Pb	2C1						702733	897534	893418	956000	592006	231569	88400	184171	802141	959415	503023	357689	369143	454311	143467	99930	464413	678746	190771	232326
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	18918943	18099105	16716444	18230164	15312114	9146709	8814296	5719034	2010398	1641453	1363896	1323532	1274604	1994269	2098562	1523447	1592686	1527802	1605789	1425685	1339758	1755592	1838800	1277819	1450203
Cd	1A1a	41	42	51	49	48	48	47	106	140	165	592	3213	8641	8722	10618	14359	15237	14628	12710	10128	10550	8886	687	711	750
Cd	1A2a	46045	43491	39899	43004	35744	20250	18764	11551	2016	2102	2015	2268	2248	1867	2629	2546	3316	3185	3260	2699	3187	2091	5	5	4
Cd	1A2c	965	920	1003	1013	1213	1412	1450	1483	1632	1569	1801	2015	2005	1886	1875	1932	1811	1642	1602	1200	1421	1942	4	4	3
Cd	1A4ai	3420	4046	3815	3841	3720	3834	4347	4173	4408	4072	4471	3769	3817	3938	3737	3408	3670	3344	3544	3558	4053	2631	3529	3569	2836
Cd	2C1						7321	18114	18501	11200	8259	8341	11200	17902	25760	93256	17683	19281	20617	348078	69418	13650	9959	49407	9019	11573
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	82403	83847	80038	81482	75964	55911	68509	61082	45190	40085	48955	57651	66289	74845	148596	76500	81853	79820	407705	122087	65444	57947	90231	48188	52496
Hg	1A1a	3361	3434	3508	3337	3265	3119	2416	2874	5753	86	237	13101	1834	1871	2263	6034	6555	6635	5441	3592	5057	2229	3630	2934	1944
Hg	1A2a	306768	291528	265215	290964	239315	126666	116083	64778	792	828	794	895	887	741	1043	1012	1319	1269	1299	1076	1270	834	2583	2540	1969
Hg	1A2f	45815	42596	45950	38354	49237	5282	8307	4570	2527	3851	6387	17319	2528	2746	16990	17369	22477	17432	20116	6598	11231	20021	16103	19834	10461
Hg	1A2gviii	1801	2146	2386	1989	3197	1862	2639	2667	2393	2727	2348	1888	1657	1881	941	1560	1463	1504	1469	1315	1829	1341	1534	1235	1204
Hg	1A4ai	1323	1554	1480	1502	1458	1516	1729	1652	1751	1634	1934	1592	1625	1691	1600	1458	1613	1469	1571	1578	1755	1126	1527	1529	1212
Hg	2C1						65821	16514	25701	53700	183741	236826	227800	114291	172834	112584	145691	236922	217462	107953	26577	22750	8334	39110	112750	28690
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	391948	374482	351483	369218	329140	207398	150593	105058	69709	195555	251987	266352	126512	185380	139193	177023	274005	249265	141508	44239	47775	37816	69141	145780	50154

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A3bi	72	72	110	110	110	109	107	106	104	101	102	97	93	90	85	77	74	66	43	62	60	61	61	62	62
PCB	1A1a	2692	2751	2809	2672	2614	2497	1937	2293	4090	180	33797	671960	3726	4511	4045	3812	3564	22340	26250	29511	6917	17067	13345	7124	4300
PCB	1A3bi	43798	46419	65500	65500	66387	66676	67390	68474	69643	70609	74150	75478	77209	79766	82679	88595	87899	88797	91031	93282	94811	98495	102392	104085	104085