Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LU Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A2fi	3477	3389	3775	3533	3909	3464	3518	3538	3364	3752	3440	3949	3019	2339	2816	2868	3336	3329	3073	3196	3280	4013	3493
NOx	1A3	15509	11823	8054	7539	7040	7313	7187	7275	7556	7458	7485	7317	7238	7279	7260	7511	7569	7615	7597	7653	7663	7665	7571
NMVOC	1A2a	357	339	313	341	286	150	139	81	7	11	6	6	5	3	93	55	59	400	310	244	189	197	176
NMVOC	1A3bv	2885	2876	3063	3103	3252	2851	2364	2313	2362	1864	1685	1427	2620	1356	1988	985	795	615	488	524	441	481	464
NMVOC	3A1	759	759	759	759	750	800	813	761	685	646	551	623	646	650	807	824	809	893	799	787	742	784	669
NMVOC	3D2	820	820	820	820	809	864	953	968	946	969	897	985	993	972	1192	1206	1171	1279	1135	1106	1034	1093	932
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	19062	19787	20072	19366	18904	17556	16824	16044	15387	14234	13204	13014	13882	12414	14102	12569	11654	11557	10250	9525	9105	9116	8539
SOx	1A2a	11140	10629	9700	10592	8742	4599	4197	2356	59	82	48	49	45	16	118	54	117	417	234	296	164	140	298
NH3	1A3bi	519	815	1113	1332	1583	1521	1507	1458	1358	1272	1197	1054	918	827	718	574	450	377	317	260	274	291	279
CO	1A2a	346107	328898	298840	328143	269634	142294	130263	72195	37	49	30	16	15	17	2984	1655	1927	5094	4439	5381	4891	3150	4890
CO	1A2fi	30289	28869	29536	24609	28332	13220	13436	13445	13459	14149	2067	5454	4642	4217	4518	4424	4948	7414	3780	1359	1489	1691	1554
CO	1A3bi	101239	113847	123475	123921	126053	112860	105905	98863	89701	82519	76871	67612	59829	55165	49907	41897	34151	29898	26264	22443	23678	25149	24047

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM10	1A2a	19	20	19	18	2968	1655	1897	5059	4397	5329	4826	3117	4871
TSP	1A2a	22	23	21	19	2969	1656	1898	5059	4397	5329	4827	3117	4872