Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: LT      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A1a	22852	25253	14999	12411	12978	11067	12199	10681	12697	9968	7259	7966	7747	7407	7581	7107	6748	6457	4944	5377	5990	4873	5765	5062	3453	3777	3579	3676	3433	3340
NOx	1A3biii	32831	34559	24195	16693	11000	13491	14749	19328	21763	20924	17835	20245	20316	18392	19895	19989	19793	22052	22246	17370	18628	19069	18793	16732	19173	18638	16966	16282	16884	17109
NOx	1A3di(i)	7692	12688	23552	13005	12292	11419	10626	4911	4027	5849	7452	8024	8888	8899	9183	11651	11193	9687	7268	10360	11397	11578	9881	7126	898	6145	12963	14022	16237	15702
NOx	1A4ai	4656	5236	2335	1936	2047	1770	1569	1144	1085	1018	744	662	728	710	708	747	882	815	718	761	783	849	739	804	508	450	496	499	545	475
NOx	1A4bi	3342	3722	1970	2195	1929	1804	1929	1945	1838	1868	1904	1945	1952	2005	2013	2091	2183	2115	2174	2183	2297	2254	2249	1736	1612	1535	1601	1645	1671	1590
NOx	3Da1	8480	9920	3520	1720	1720	1600	3160	3244	3336	3760	3920	4080	4600	4640	4680	4760	4880	5080	4732	5376	5728	5880	6000	6200	6528	6712	6780	6840	6964	7080
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	152723	161605	99786	77953	70049	73824	77293	81691	84186	71962	61328	63119	63975	60715	61450	62828	62717	64032	61917	52747	55564	54548	55148	51622	52304	53949	53788	52086	53027	52475
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	152723	161605	99786	77953	70049	73824	77293	81691	84186	71962	61328	63119	63975	60715	61450	55717	62717	64032	61917	52747	55564	54548	55148	51622	52304	53949	53788	52086	53027	52475
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	152723	161605	99786	77953	70049	73824	77293	81691	84186	71962	61328	63119	63975	60715	61450	62828	62717	64032	61917	52747	55564	54548	55148	51622	52304	53949	53788	52086	53027	52475
NMVOC	1A3biii	5863	5702	3963	3044	2128	2887	3042	3415	3553	3485	3080	2983	2663	2302	2212	1887	1673	1925	1679	1290	1233	1105	1012	844	901	791	693	613	537	516
NMVOC	1A4bi	10074	10379	6379	9091	8729	9024	9942	10199	10535	11032	11353	11597	11480	11677	11823	12019	12572	12182	12663	12840	12804	12510	12556	11290	10528	9963	9913	9768	9934	9429
NMVOC	1B2aiv	32239	32867	32867	27650	25763	23745	23458	22434	15415	11535	6725	5672	9363	9996	9974	10109	10265	8605	11377	10034	9754	9930	9818	10190	9110	9517	10116	10707	10630	10686
SOx	1A1a	82158	98236	61106	58062	60671	45852	49508	42366	59269	40529	18063	20797	17948	10979	9543	6167	3734	4794	2410	3119	2974	1488	1566	1079	960	823	565	673	688	480
SOx	1A1b	16238	16238	8787	5616	3817	2348	3219	7581	9202	9920	10803	6891	6486	5798	7248	11771	11173	9052	5042	5556	3930	4102	3553	2760	2497	4466	4428	3573	2677	2196
SOx	1A2gviii	7444	9546	5650	3414	2959	2211	1595	1605	1384	1085	739	557	573	406	443	483	337	347	321	193	232	182	125	120	87	97	83	96	49	47
SOx	1A3di(i)	1940	3200	5940	3280	3100	2880	2680	1240	1020	1480	1877	1981	2167	2134	2253	2829	2683	2270	1779	2472	2319	1985	1649	1045	195	1507	3179	3439	4112	3976
SOx	1A4bi	22144	23335	6460	5422	3721	2347	3368	3440	1885	1903	1368	1414	1752	638	612	687	806	829	864	829	1010	995	993	872	757	638	692	770	761	656
NH3	3Da1	12986	15191	5390	2634	2634	2450	4839	4968	5109	5758	6003	6248	7044	7106	7167	7283	6504	7620	6327	7953	7270	7235	7474	7735	9957	10295	10294	10891	10736	10876
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	81835	79696	58079	43707	39235	37638	38517	38624	37822	35006	33722	33794	35880	36990	37857	37407	37384	38519	36617	37841	36763	36094	35850	34446	36900	37283	36485	36507	35941	34787
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	81835	79696	58079	43707	39235	37638	38517	38624	37822	35006	33722	33794	35880	36990	37857	37407	37384	38519	36617	37841	36763	36094	35850	34446	36900	37283	36485	36507	35941	34787
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	81835	79696	58079	43707	39235	37638	38517	38624	37822	35006	33722	33794	35880	36990	37857	37407	37384	38519	36617	37841	36763	36094	35850	34446	36900	37283	36485	36507	35941	34787
CO	1A1a	5908	6163	3716	2733	2602	2574	2894	2644	2592	2544	2673	3107	3457	3919	4345	4332	4397	4845	4287	4669	5061	4511	4986	5130	5472	6740	6864	8003	7728	7297
CO	1A3biii	11941	12145	8470	6156	4165	5354	5747	7037	7655	7359	6253	6633	6293	5576	5753	5477	5232	5871	5675	4417	4594	4520	4421	3896	4473	4367	4109	4020	4243	4321
CO	1A4bi	111119	115299	59702	79612	74294	74987	83688	85948	86481	90445	92877	94879	94433	96404	97359	99423	104549	101626	105514	106590	107396	105184	105384	99635	92573	86406	86155	85421	86549	81759
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	374176	422502	240327	217931	192363	214239	232130	231266	224654	200425	182438	181503	181233	175884	173534	177992	182882	182892	180007	169852	163834	156544	153114	140718	130944	123556	121680	120334	121855	115531
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	374176	422502	240327	217931	192363	214239	232130	231266	224654	200425	182438	181503	181233	175884	173534	177992	182882	182892	180007	169852	163834	156544	153114	140718	130944	123556	121680	120334	121855	115531
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	374176	422502	240327	217931	192363	214239	232130	231266	224654	200425	182438	181503	181233	175884	173534	177992	182882	182892	180007	169852	163834	156544	153114	140718	130944	123556	121680	120334	121855	115531

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	435	480	536	555	565	748	727	625	454	665	732	734	616	448	30	266	561	606	802	782
TSP	2I						1107	1107	1107	1107	1107	1209	1209	1164	1178	1352	1301	1393	1361	1955	1340

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2f	559875	572047	331203	291128	263018	176141	144930	124336	118054	97872	87560	83824	96386	159779	115391	116053	155961	158713	132507	83903	100276	122385	140997	142223	133964	142097	138118	130960	138832	147015
Pb	1A2gvii	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	309779	309779	309779	185867	185867	185867	185867	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196
Pb	1A3bvi	492920	536227	347170	258436	191539	257347	283021	321036	342092	312119	279688	306653	317097	323853	361311	386007	416741	502383	505148	416595	428098	427752	432545	403233	457231	487188	517044	545331	587081	613977
Pb	1A4ai	1995330	2353542	1238627	1181009	1135756	1033462	857605	599764	597148	463546	286221	237949	275151	273385	267289	165974	217468	170234	134021	159633	163045	191416	139410	115544	102235	79424	92492	96173	108143	85468
Pb	1A4bi	2643496	2773613	958465	1002397	822052	708016	855187	886853	758933	788289	732882	748191	776698	816345	809506	859998	942133	939252	971606	958393	1054338	1047099	1039716	1032081	934334	842914	856468	884364	879689	802215
Pb	2G							53100	178703	143802	151827	303486	132653	218501	172010	336806	353780	430710	663603	710809	281958	337107	350593	470378	588375	537327	476056	392401	436899	491514	550921
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	8371735	8939476	4889424	4497589	4030320	3836083	3840637	3734187	3722770	3425831	3186793	3069349	2683457	2756103	2957301	2640133	2838822	3094800	3104689	2332884	2500793	2566804	2731188	2722662	2611518	2474414	2357435	2470149	2593727	2571363
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	8371735	8939476	4889424	4497589	4030320	3836083	3840637	3734187	3722770	3425831	3186793	3069349	2683457	2756103	2957301	2640133	2838822	3094800	3104689	2332884	2500793	2566804	2731188	2722662	2611518	2474414	2357435	2470149	2593727	2571363
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	8371735	8939476	4889424	4497589	4030320	3836083	3840637	3734187	3722770	3425831	3186793	3069349	2683457	2756103	2957301	2640133	2838822	3094800	3104689	2332884	2500793	2566804	2731188	2722662	2611518	2474414	2357435	2470149	2593727	2571363
Cd	1A2f	30740	28676	13513	9296	9509	7590	7194	7992	8028	8578	6460	6342	8808	12048	12064	9462	11009	11460	10071	6641	6707	8249	9170	9192	8267	9202	8508	7849	9862	10722
Cd	1A4bi	51591	53367	29037	39783	37452	38308	42547	43610	44425	46488	48141	49204	48845	49714	50269	51977	54413	52787	54696	55311	55889	54647	54690	53074	49493	46962	46631	46004	46607	44257
Hg	1A2f	158983	154798	82106	46761	45588	32963	32910	35104	39425	33156	28715	27466	28581	34066	34476	38997	51478	52029	45084	27602	30116	34607	41352	46661	41828	51175	46392	45194	50382	56055
Hg	1A3bi	6411	7785	4569	3551	2956	4033	4463	4596	4521	3353	2610	2774	2856	3025	3072	3343	3750	4688	4691	3946	3747	3565	3537	3769	3964	4280	4986	5172	5364	5574
Hg	1A4bi	91259	96353	31708	30910	24283	19521	24280	25177	19872	20486	17815	18156	19368	20805	20442	21583	24313	24591	25540	24924	28455	28482	28290	28344	25290	22363	23107	24405	24180	21605
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	528279	559582	309133	255441	234650	204873	196561	182609	193591	164399	134117	137449	138976	144519	146272	151759	166830	155871	146637	127814	134405	137755	140842	142650	132567	139538	139526	140835	146455	146996
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	528279	559582	309133	255441	234650	204873	196561	182609	193591	164399	134117	137449	138976	144519	146272	151759	166830	155871	146637	127814	134405	137755	140842	142650	132567	139538	139526	140835	146455	146996
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	528279	559582	309133	255441	234650	204873	196561	182609	193591	164399	134117	137449	138976	144519	146272	151759	166830	155871	146637	127814	134405	137755	140842	142650	132567	139538	139526	140835	146455	146996

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3bi	395	473	274	218	183	260	289	298	305	258	244	266	290	326	357	408	468	605	588	498	513	495	512	509	529	582	657	630	558	558
DIOX	1A4bi	19951	20692	10614	14115	13158	13218	14778	15184	15246	15947	16225	16573	16505	16862	17025	17263	18177	17678	18366	18549	18718	18341	18383	17880	16605	15398	15364	15242	15447	14580
DIOX	5C1bii	921	921	256	742	224	867	291	284	272	119	393	500	473	1282	651	1167	1080	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26998	28251	17537	21422	18823	18872	20258	21345	26731	23651	20531	25549	23681	23914	24357	33648	31948	22693	23134	22977	23224	22677	22834	21916	20852	19483	19542	20027	20751	19216
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	26998	28251	17537	21422	18823	18872	20258	21345	26731	23651	20531	25549	23681	23914	24357	33648	31948	22693	23134	22977	23224	22677	22834	21916	20852	19483	19542	20027	20751	19216
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	26998	28251	17537	21422	18823	18872	20258	21345	26731	23651	20531	25549	23681	23914	24357	33648	31948	22693	23134	22977	23224	22677	22834	21916	20852	19483	19542	20027	20751	19216
HCB	1A1a	5492	7389	5858	5725	3303	3519	3880	4524	5338	3469	8442	14590	20988	25567	32339	31716	36688	38350	45003	52530	52721	49522	65261	79285	99216	129001	136142	150573	150573	145038
HCB	1A4bi	92538	95123	60123	87143	83874	87843	96507	98743	102820	107684	112833	115344	113977	115590	117128	120762	125750	121597	125982	127757	127802	124703	124897	120850	113147	108010	106914	104854	104854	101622
PCB	1A2e	59786	76868	68327	46975	34164	25623	17082	12921	51273	36972	29326	23321	27217	25137	18964	20168	17766	16661	10711	15131	18191	19211	18530	19722	21594	14966	17176	19046	15984	12414
PCB	1A4bi	1128659	1189017	348750	297633	218007	141811	198050	214536	130099	133293	78271	77488	97717	120143	111509	122621	161562	172696	189253	180336	223793	231492	235621	243200	204808	173940	192994	217810	217826	180016
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	4611311	5111407	2734139	2364138	2040728	1685210	1457989	1183940	1146318	949154	678808	610935	663712	802870	692084	36783047	20844557	4645231	4373272	3895679	10188970	1515893	1229870	1369284	1249493	1142156	1227329	1303408	1334038	876075
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4611311	5111407	2734139	2364138	2040728	1685210	1457989	1183940	1146318	949154	678808	610935	663712	802870	692084	36783047	20844557	4645231	4373272	3895679	10188970	1515893	1229870	1369284	1249493	1142156	1227329	1303408	1334038	876075
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	4611311	5111407	2734139	2364138	2040728	1685210	1457989	1183940	1146318	949154	678808	610935	663712	802870	692084	36783047	20844557	4645231	4373272	3895679	10188970	1515893	1229870	1369284	1249493	1142156	1227329	1303408	1334038	876075