Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: LT      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A1a	17443	19002	10780	8753	9098	7847	8863	7600	9242	7398	5704	6322	6268	6266	6583	5794	5320	5164	5261	5245	5201	4641	5062	4979	3256	4093	3751	3610	3312
NOx	1A4ai	4398	4953	2171	1802	1894	1654	1470	1068	1008	943	712	630	692	675	674	732	866	797	703	743	783	852	740	810	525	462	513	519	537
NOx	1A4bi	3342	3722	1970	2195	1929	1804	1929	1945	1838	1868	1904	1945	1952	2005	2013	2089	2181	2112	2172	2181	2291	2249	2244	1736	1612	1535	1602	1646	1660
NOx	3Da1	12437	14549	5163	2523	2523	2347	4635	4758	4893	5515	5749	5984	6747	6805	6864	6981	7157	7451	6940	7885	8401	8624	8800	9093	9574	9844	9401	10091	10332
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	155717	150866	103872	78931	72632	73522	75334	77056	76826	67674	61748	63141	64727	65086	66947	68453	71062	68019	68739	62590	64743	61535	63689	62326	60579	61824	61269	57658	58138
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	155717	150866	103872	78931	72632	73522	75334	77056	76826	67674	61748	63141	64727	65086	66947	53478	71062	68019	68739	62590	64743	61535	63689	62326	60579	61824	61269	57658	58138
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	155717	150866	103872	78931	72632	73522	75334	77056	76826	67674	61748	63141	64727	65086	66947	68453	71062	68019	68739	62590	64743	61535	63689	62326	60579	61824	61269	57658	58138
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	262	432	802	443	419	389	362	168	140	202	257	276	305	305	315	399	383	332	249	355	390	397	339	244	32	214	452	3439	3439
NMVOC	1A4bi	10074	10379	6379	9091	8729	9024	9942	10199	10535	11032	11353	11597	11482	11679	11824	11882	12429	12037	12516	12692	12627	12342	12393	11297	10534	10009	9960	9816	9670
NMVOC	1B2aiv	1907	2334	806	1011	722	627	738	1001	1272	872	932	1309	1294	1420	1732	1839	1606	948	1848	1681	1797	1801	1706	1802	1499	1697	1865	1964	1904
NMVOC	2D3e	2203	2205	2198	2184	2168	1544	1532	1521	1510	1500	1294	1282	1273	260	188	267	415	305	302	305	204	210	329	362	309	131	122	184	176
NMVOC	2D3h	2509	2449	2390	2330	2270	2211	2151	2091	2032	1972	1912	1853	1793	1733	1674	937	1140	3560	1253	898	1424	930	895	918	1304	1214	1148	178	280
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	102540	110406	80512	71839	63719	65972	67785	69745	68047	63680	55616	53635	52948	51893	50012	55741	55553	57258	55231	51736	52518	49226	50331	47233	46856	44626	44569	42843	42596
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	102540	110406	80512	71839	63719	65972	67785	69745	68047	63680	55616	53635	52948	51893	50012	41927	55553	57258	55231	51736	52518	49226	50331	47233	46856	44626	44569	42843	42596
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	102540	110406	80512	71839	63719	65972	67785	69745	68047	63680	55616	53635	52948	51893	50012	55741	55553	57258	55231	51736	52518	49226	50331	47233	46856	44626	44569	42843	42596
SOx	1A1a	80797	97527	60067	57139	60451	45667	49402	42418	59409	40619	18286	21054	18058	11218	9832	9930	8531	10065	4522	5295	4797	3421	3220	2772	2815	3704	3403	2086	1564
SOx	1A3di(i)	1940	3200	5940	3280	3100	2880	2680	1240	1020	1480	1877	1981	2167	2134	2253	2829	2683	2270	1779	2472	2319	1985	1649	1045	195	1507	3179
SOx	1A4bi	22143	23335	6457	5422	3721	2347	3366	3439	1885	1903	1368	1414	1752	2050	1896	680	799	822	860	826	1012	1001	1004	886	772	651	712	795	826
NH3	3Da1	12609	14750	5234	2558	2558	2379	4699	4824	4960	5591	5829	6067	6840	6899	6959	8564	7560	7870	8488	9366	8618	8994	8626	8932	10930	12551	12508	13589	13919
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	77276	76476	57521	44565	40192	35851	36480	35968	34894	33214	32022	31642	33440	34236	34559	37307	36509	36063	35913	36468	36779	36649	35804	34745	37173	38925	38329	39363	38890
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	77276	76476	57521	44565	40192	35851	36480	35968	34894	33214	32022	31642	33440	34236	34559	37307	36509	36063	35913	36468	36779	36649	35804	34745	37173	38925	38329	39363	38890
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	77276	76476	57521	44565	40192	35851	36480	35968	34894	33214	32022	31642	33440	34236	34559	37307	36509	36063	35913	36468	36779	36649	35804	34745	37173	38925	38329	39363	38890
CO	1A4bi	111119	115299	59702	79612	74294	74987	83688	85948	86481	90445	92877	94879	94433	96404	97359	98948	104057	101145	105018	106086	106759	104572	104770	99707	92634	86854	86602	85871	84684
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	458229	538677	330972	287291	237461	282712	296126	311501	294799	269701	183641	181710	181760	179565	175784	178559	188714	194204	184166	176347	158252	173285	168922	159673	151566	145255	143612	140644	139871
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	458229	538677	330972	287291	237461	282712	296126	311501	294799	269701	183641	181710	181760	179565	175784	178559	188714	194204	184166	176347	158252	173285	168922	159673	151566	145255	143612	140644	139871
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	458229	538677	330972	287291	237461	282712	296126	311501	294799	269701	183641	181710	181760	179565	175784	178559	188714	194204	184166	176347	158252	173285	168922	159673	151566	145255	143612	140644	139871

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2f	53	54	278	109	107	78	96	92	73	46	72	95	107	93	88	74	79	74	72
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	435	480	536	555	565	748	727	625	454	665	732	734	616	448	30	266	561
PM2.5	2A5b						1533	805	788	1356	815	293	1668	420	569	530	285	43	682	380
PM10	1A2f	57	58	300	114	113	83	103	98	78	49	77	102	114	100	95	80	86	80	78
BC	1A1a	19	25	30	31	36	208	102	141	64	20	17	12	16	11	10	12	10	10	9

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2f	537139	583222	365609	320963	279319	163918	141072	118608	119088	100577	91560	88738	339786	102692	114162	133891	180730	179407	144342	88166	122079	150048	176747	183675	167668	176513	171763	166246	168232
Pb	1A3bi	40416713	45681319	27596192	21949057	17916080	25006392	27382710	27382710	2270194	1769809	1367709	1353644	1315218	1311199	482025	472848	496934	598169	589539	494519	399434	347883	310918	281713	276174	269058	290825	259099	262208
Pb	1A3bii	2637563	2981127	1800906	1432378	1169189	1631898	1786974	1786974	148151	115496	89256	88338	85830	85568	31457	30858	32430	39036	38473	32272	26067	22703	20290	18384	18023	17559	18979	16909	17111
Pb	1A3biii	28329583	32019741	19343201	15384914	12558049	17527914	19193563	19193563	1591264	1240525	958678	948820	921885	919068	337870	331437	348319	419279	413230	346627	279978	243844	217934	197463	193581	188593	203850	181612	183791
Pb	1A3biv	8779405	9922994	5994504	4767821	3891769	5431942	5948131	5948131	493136	384442	297097	294042	285694	284821	104707	102713	107945	129935	128061	107420	86766	75568	67538	61194	59991	58445	63174	56282	56957
Pb	1A3bvi	488360	536252	349640	245906	204552	264873	281418	324687	333610	308027	259524	287670	271203	289744	315596	312357	351529	400164	408791	346187	373623	372068	364202	360219	360219	440704	534009	475754	475754
Pb	1A4ai	2038318	2405167	1271334	1207780	1161086	1058236	876738	615973	610784	475286	276348	230194	265386	263372	259036	187576	247192	192701	150312	180649	183247	215928	156372	156579	137958	104352	123749	129071	133193
Pb	1A4bi	2643496	2773613	958465	1002397	822052	708016	855187	886853	758933	788289	732882	748191	776698	816345	809506	859961	942095	939211	971565	958352	1054293	1047058	1039677	1032045	934299	842878	856425	884318	881424
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	87979057	99064222	59108668	47461528	38965796	52763456	57428265	57189751	7390184	6072699	4818859	4858057	4998554	4806495	3235088	3209456	3296183	3496377	3355708	2975699	2930729	2887299	2849067	2731676	2599268	2548359	2623869	2552699	2573241
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	87979057	99064222	59108668	47461528	38965796	52763456	57428265	57189751	7390184	6072699	4818859	4858057	4998554	4806495	3235088	3209456	3296183	3496377	3355708	2975699	2930729	2887299	2849067	2731676	2599268	2548359	2623869	2552699	2573241
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	87979057	99064222	59108668	47461528	38965796	52763456	57428265	57189751	7390184	6072699	4818859	4858057	4998554	4806495	3235088	3209456	3296183	3496377	3355708	2975699	2930729	2887299	2849067	2731676	2599268	2548359	2623869	2552699	2573241
Cd	1A1a	73936	89199	56371	53319	50694	40101	44027	39885	60653	39039	30418	45338	58552	63807	78372	225390	123575	159928	88512	46582	44253	37687	56062	35159	43484	56066	54823	61046	59714
Cd	1A2c	266	351	157	122	97	85	61	49	36	36	45	51	35	16	3	7	40	6	1	28	16	2	2	2	2	860	1471	7896	5969
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707	705	688	671	597	605
Cd	1A4bi	51591	53367	29037	39783	37452	38308	42547	43610	44425	46488	48141	49204	48845	49714	50269	51972	54408	52781	54691	55305	55883	54641	54685	53070	49489	46957	46625	45998	45223
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	309827	331311	221730	216367	209023	197096	209124	204793	322646	210679	198065	224743	252758	260001	279692	397348	291365	321610	252294	192194	191088	188052	210642	180996	183630	196564	189073	196938	194684
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	309827	331311	221730	216367	209023	197096	209124	204793	322646	210679	198065	224743	252758	260001	279692	397348	291365	321610	252294	192194	191088	188052	210642	180996	183630	196564	189073	196938	194684
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	309827	331311	221730	216367	209023	197096	209124	204793	322646	210679	198065	224743	252758	260001	279692	397348	291365	321610	252294	192194	191088	188052	210642	180996	183630	196564	189073	196938	194684
Hg	1A1a	40866	41792	27217	23092	21335	17042	17959	15729	20259	15873	11084	12164	12235	12095	12529	202181	98253	138763	57333	10871	11238	8982	9386	12027	8705	8996	9451	10574	10192
Hg	1A2f	158420	153354	80605	45199	44468	32796	32675	35025	39255	32994	28605	27405	42214	28196	33481	39255	51783	52296	44805	27677	30327	34772	41857	47725	42412	52052	46977	46068	51051
Hg	1A4bi	91259	96353	31708	30910	24283	19521	24280	25177	19872	20486	17815	18156	19368	20805	20442	21978	24727	25029	25976	25361	28935	28926	28706	28723	25662	22745	23568	24895	25101
Hg	5C1biii	344	344	227	125	498	571	710	1679	7495	3113	119	4806	923	211	1727	11219	8214	839	1199	1234	1146	655	72	44	89	933	1021	1389	1921

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A4bi	17346	17944	9858	13485	12732	12952	14392	14781	15020	15719	16087	16431	16323	16648	16828	17022	17879	17357	18046	18260	18318	17933	17992	17473	16255	15142	15093	14931	14725
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26200	27818	18197	22112	19583	19517	20590	21459	26959	23757	20646	25413	23833	23564	23988	33437	31470	22068	22371	22278	22375	21836	21882	21324	19963	18504	18494	18971	19344
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	26200	27818	18197	22112	19583	19517	20590	21459	26959	23757	20646	25413	23833	23564	23988	33437	31470	22068	22371	22278	22375	21836	21882	21324	19963	18504	18494	18971	19344
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	26200	27818	18197	22112	19583	19517	20590	21459	26959	23757	20646	25413	23833	23564	23988	33437	31470	22068	22371	22278	22375	21836	21882	21324	19963	18504	18494	18971	19344
HCB	1A1a	11136	14914	11184	11025	8532	7662	8307	8597	9298	6646	10255	16738	22517	26459	32896	32161	37113	38717	45187	52721	52872	49617	65376	74696	94002	122130	122227	138531	134183
PCB	1A2e	60281	77442	68751	47373	34553	25977	17483	13301	51750	37378	29672	23568	27411	25293	19106	20280	17853	16757	10799	15199	18260	19290	18612	19792	21684	15058	17258	19135	16051
PCB	1A4bi	2604770	2745530	776945	654387	459402	292715	416212	442755	258223	262701	156703	158092	202267	242569	223891	259092	330538	354624	370486	344163	457345	470057	463603	480892	408735	332504	360028	409295	421682
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6053976	6632867	3158032	2712685	2262551	1822748	1666143	1403137	1265434	1070142	753407	691620	1065456	811028	787856	36918347	21009254	4820876	4535572	4050684	10410358	1736915	1441431	1587815	1422795	1279077	1365073	1469042	1499092
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6053976	6632867	3158032	2712685	2262551	1822748	1666143	1403137	1265434	1070142	753407	691620	1065456	811028	787856	36918347	21009254	4820876	4535572	4050684	10410358	1736915	1441431	1587815	1422795	1279077	1365073	1469042	1499092
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6053976	6632867	3158032	2712685	2262551	1822748	1666143	1403137	1265434	1070142	753407	691620	1065456	811028	787856	36918347	21009254	4820876	4535572	4050684	10410358	1736915	1441431	1587815	1422795	1279077	1365073	1469042	1499092