Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A1a	17380	18885	10673	8646	9041	7781	8786	7504	9125	7324	5509	5981	5774	5663	5819	5045	4562	4507	4425	4336	4304	3812	3870	3490	3186	3691	3548	3557
NOx	1A3di(i)	7692	12688	23552	13005	12292	11419	10626	4911	4027	5849	7452	8024	8888	8899	9183	11651		9687	7268	10360	11397	11578	9881	7126	898	6145	12963	14022
NOx	1A4bi	3361	3715	1947	2169	1940	1782	1896	1918	1815	1848	1885	1925	1931	1983	1990	2085	2177	2110	2170	2179	2290	2248	2243	2152	2004	1895	1960	1996
NOx	3Da1	12437	14549	5163	2523	2523	2347	4635	4758	4893	5515	5749	5984	6747	6805	6864	6981	7157	7451	6940	7885	8401	8624	8800	9093	9574	9844	9401	9459
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	137582	133881	91686	68033	62675	65776	68078	70043	70488	61829	56125	57770	59130	59455	61133	62365	65063	62128	62955	56963	58712	55800	57923	56788	56758	57701	57503	53437
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	137582	133881	91686	68033	62675	65776	68078	70043	70488	61829	56125	57770	59130	59455	61133	62365	65063	62128	62955	56963	58712	55800	57923	56788	56758	57701	57503	53437
NMVOC	1A4bi	10074	10379	6379	9091	8730	9024	9942	10199	10535	11031	11353	11597	11482	11679	11824	11882	12429	12037	12516	12692	12627	12342	12393	12008	11203	10550	10494	10335
NMVOC	1B2aiv	1907	2334	806	1011	722	627	738	1001	1272	872	932	1309	1294	1420	1732	1839	1606	948	1848	1681	1797	1801	1706	1802	1499	1697	1865	1964
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	115981	125284	91021	81734	73491	75180	77365	78987	78021	72632	63156	60500	58635	55809	54983	62168	61448	60091	58702	55037	54935	52587	53379	50175	49496	46793	46481	45727
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	115981	125284	91021	81734	73491	75180	77365	78987	78021	72632	63156	60500	58635	55809	54983	62168	61448	60091	58702	55037	54935	52587	53379	50175	49496	46793	46481	45727
SOx	1A3di(i)	1940	3200	5940	3280	3100	2880	2680	1240	1020	1480	1877	1981	2167	2134	2253	2829		2270	1779	2472	2319	1985	1649	1045	195	1507	3179	3439
SOx	1A4bi	19954	21014	5847	4918	3429	2147	3049	3119	1726	1745	1169	1206	1482	1728	1603	690	806	823	860	826	1017	1005	1005	1015	885	756	815	895
NH3	3Da1	12618	14761	5238	2559	2559	2381	4702	4827	4964	5595	5833	6071	6845	6904	6964	7083	7262	7559	7268	9250	8260	8340	8490	8800	9260	9490	9214	9264
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	65056	64575	46482	35371	32760	30938	31675	30951	29850	28231	27112	27383	29264	29931	30249	31236	31699	31310	30267	32058	31459	31031	30516	30183	30659	30755	30074	29547
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	65056	64575	46482	35371	32760	30938	31675	30951	29850	28231	27112	27383	29264	29931	30249	31236	31699	31310	30267	32058	31459	31031	30516	30183	30659	30755	30074	29547
CO	1A4bi	111176	115333	59723	79615	74331	74985	83678	85938	86471	90436	92869	94870	94424	96394	97349	98946	104056	101143	105017	106086	106759	104572	104770	101854	94659	88431	88172	87405
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	460157	543480	331064	286840	236501	280944	296859	311715	294444	269151	183439	181761	183570	177747	173786	176100	186561	192001	181725	173707	155757	171501	166522	159490	151357	144697	143026	139523
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	460157	543480	331064	286840	236501	280944	296859	311715	294444	269151	183439	181761	183570	177747	173786	176100	186561	192001	181725	173707	155757	171501	166522	159490	151357	144697	143026	139523

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A2f	48	48	257	61	62	33	31	19	19	12	14	21	18	11	11	8	8	88
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	435	480	536	555	565	748		625	454	665	732	734	616	448	30	266	561	606
PM10	1A2f	57	57	291	71	72	37	36	21	21	13	16	24	21	13	13	10	9	95
TSP	2D3b	770	770	770	770	840	980	1260	1540	1960	1260	1120	1260	1400	1400	1260	1176	1246	1246

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2f	302500	390157	247765	281871	232619	122042	91790	59797	45205	36892	41965	40391	280774	52007	53269	29560	23215	18304	16715	10607	13472	22159	14935	8595	7989	6609	6428	165658
Pb	1A2gvii	960717	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	805424	309779	309779	309779	185867	185867	185867	185867	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196	6196
Pb	1A3bi	40416713	45681319	27596192	21949057	17916080	25006392	27382710	27382710	2270194	1769809	1367709	1353644	1315218	1311199	482025	472848	496934	598169	589539	494519	399434	347883	310918	281713	276174	269058	290825	259099
Pb	1A3bii	2637563	2981127	1800906	1432378	1169189	1631898	1786974	1786974	148151	115496	89256	88338	85830	85568	31457	30858	32430	39036	38473	32272	26067	22703	20290	18384	18023	17559	18979	16909
Pb	1A3biii	28329583	32019741	19343201	15384914	12558049	17527914	19193563	19193563	1591264	1240525	958678	948820	921885	919068	337870	331437	348319	419279	413230	346627	279978	243844	217934	197463	193581	188593	203850	181612
Pb	1A3biv	8779405	9922994	5994504	4767821	3891769	5431942	5948131	5948131	493136	384442	297097	294042	285694	284821	104707	102713	107945	129935	128061	107420	86766	75568	67538	61194	59991	58445	63174	56282
Pb	1A3bvi	488360	536252	349640	245906	204552	264873	281418	324687	333610	308027	259524	287670	271203	289744	315596	312357	351529	400164	408791	346187	373623	372068	364202	360219	360219	440704	534009	475754
Pb	1A4bi	2643517	2773634	958477	1002407	822068	708022	855190	886858	758937	788293	732887	748195	776703	816350	809511	859965	942098	939214	971568	958354	1054295	1047061	1039680	1032048	934302	842880	856427	884320
Pb	2G							53100	178703	143802	151827	303486	132653	218501	172010	336806	353780	430710	663603	710809	281958	337107	350593	470378	588375	537327	476056
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	89937474	100790247	59667527	48093174	39578178	53409431	58134083	58081632	8190935	6917928	5914651	5760127	5976557	5237605	3810004	3785420	3651776	4169501	4121366	3329250	3089447	3007712	3051016	3114521	2915618	2784744	2380453	2498419
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	89937474	100790247	59667527	48093174	39578178	53409431	58134083	58081632	8190935	6917928	5914651	5760127	5976557	5237605	3810004	3785420	3651776	4169501	4121366	3329250	3089447	3007712	3051016	3114521	2915618	2784744	2380453	2498419
Cd	1A1a	73055	87558	52990	49923	48879	38092	41517	37042	56163	36296	27823	40730	51818	55586	67918	220368	107660	145607	72061	29065	23272	17067	22487	16241	16373	20242	19089	18379
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707	705	688	671	597
Cd	1A4bi	149683	151458	129874	204516	203090	219009	237374	242536	259330	271890	288476	294880	289844	292905	297526	305517	316434	304833	316215	321887	317745	309364	310475	299355	281452	270876	267459	260575
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	374354	396585	294214	360406	353105	358995	383800	384687	513286	413615	427127	458513	482543	491389	512225	661323	545229	570293	510876	451444	442530	428307	437947	419296	399852	398413	388917	395749
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	374354	396585	294214	360406	353105	358995	383800	384687	513286	413615	427127	458513	482543	491389	512225	661323	545229	570293	510876	451444	442530	428307	437947	419296	399852	398413	388917	395749
Hg	1A1a	40866	41792	27217	23092	21335	17042	17959	15729	20259	15873	11084	12164	12235	12095	12529	202181	98253	138763	57333	10871	11238	8982	9387	12027	8705	8996	9451	10574
Hg	1A4bi	91861	96981	32110	31274	24735	19827	24469	25453	20148	20762	18136	18478	19681	21106	20711	22240	24956	25188	26128	25513	29104	29113	28902	28888	25812	22875	23708	25047
Hg	1A4ci	11040	11570	1684	1447	1151	600	948	640	668	495	368	435	456	669	530	577	719	596	543	517	611	745	664	794	1148	1157	1263	1334
Hg	5C1biii	347	347	229	127	502	576	716	1695	7565	3142	120	4851	931	212	1743	11323	8290	22476	32126	33055	30712	17536	1924	1173	20	213	233	316

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A4bi	17360	17958	9867	13492	12743	12957	14396	14785	15024	15723	16091	16435	16328	16652	16832	17026	17882	17360	18049	18262	18321	17935	17995	17475	16257	15144	15095	14933
DIOX	1A4ci	1966	2086	1034	663	694	668	610	682	662	581	575	676	687	726	756	701	835	917	846	735	842	868	813	763	748	682	733	812
PCB	1A2e	59786	76868	68327	46975	34164	25623	17083	12921	51273	36972	29326	23321	27217	25137	18965	20169	17766	16661	10711	15131	18191	19211	18531	19722	21595	14966	17176	19046
PCB	1A4bi	2604770	2745530	776945	654387	459402	292715	416212	442755	258223	262701	156703	158092	202267	242569	223891	259092	330538	354624	370486	344163	457345	470057	463603	480892	408735	332504	360028	409295
PCB	1A4ci	835397	886363	439331	281656	295086	283900	259301	290020	281350	246755	244542	287327	292087	308754	321123	298083	354900	389825	359481	312328	357952	368968	345644	324360	317866	289728	311460	345304
PCB	2C1	264500	209750	96750	59000	43750	43000	39750	51250	63250	58500	58000	61500	43750	39500	36750	28126	24974	28250	26944	11395	1206	7175	8029	7110	6544	5566	5170	5170
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6806214	7431981	3586536	2985098	2550646	2103377	1919261	1689773	1543336	1314839	997932	977860	1327706	1117146	1105245	37212780	21361798	5211308	4899429	4371152	10760374	2156986	1791479	1908641	1728122	1561394	1655495	1809220
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6806214	7431981	3586536	2985098	2550646	2103377	1919261	1689773	1543336	1314839	997932	977860	1327706	1117146	1105245	37212780	21361798	5211308	4899429	4371152	10760374	2156986	1791479	1908641	1728122	1561394	1655495	1809220