Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: LT      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A1a	17253	18451	10830	8883	9398	8103	8609	7576	8950	6771	4665	4927	4823	4465	4403	5296	4778	4794	4620	4568	4539	4059	4209	3495	3214	3742	3635
NOx	1A3di(i)	7692	12688	23552	13005	12292	11419	10626	4911	4027	5849	7452	8024	8888	8899	9183	11651	11193	9687	7268	10360	11397	11578	9881	7126	898	6145	12963
NOx	1A4bi	3404	3779	1999	2221	1983	1819	1933	1951	1842	1873	1908	1947	1955	2010	2017	2094	2190	2123	2187	2197	2316	2276	2276	2185	2031	1903	1975
NOx	3Da1	12437	14549	5163	2523	2523	2347	4635	4758	4893	5515	5749	5984	6747	6805	6864	6981	7157	7451	6940	7885	8401	8624	8800	9093	9574	9844	9401
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	129464	125457	87270	64945	59088	62494	64700	65081	65488	58768	52889	53949	54772	54677	55856	58560	62046	60622	59806	53077	55822	53248	55633	54146	53582	54432	54187
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	129464	125457	87270	64945	59088	62494	64700	65081	65488	58768	52889	53949	54772	54677	55856	58560	62046	60622	59806	53077	55822	53248	55633	54146	53582	54432	54187
NMVOC	1A4bi	10050	10356	6348	9058	8688	8994	9905	10153	10502	10996	11331	11577	11459	11644	11792	11841	12363	11965	12419	12591	12441	12142	12156	11773	11009	10504	10408
NMVOC	1B2aiv	1907	2334	806	1011	722	627	738	1001	1272	872	932	1309		1420	1732	1839	1606	948	1848	1681	1797	1801	1706	1802	1499	1697	1865
NMVOC	2D3h	2509	2449	2390	2330	2270	2211	2151	2091	2032	1972	1912	1853	1793	1733	1674	937	1140	3560	1253	898	1424	930	895	918	1304	1214	1148
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	116748	124535	96199	86827	81572	88024	81800	83844	81441	76307	68406	66945	65551	66514	67268	67291	66617	67061	61458	58552	59347	57003	55901	51964	52935	51561	52417
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	116748	124535	96199	86827	81572	88024	81800	83844	81441	76307	68406	66945	65551	66514	67268	67291	66617	67061	61458	58552	59347	57003	55901	51964	52935	51561	52417
SOx	1A3di(i)	1940	3200	5940	3280	3100	2880	2680	1240	1020	1480	1877	1981	2167	2134	2253	2829	2683	2270	1779	2472	2319	1985	1649	1045	195	1507	3179
SOx	1A4bi	19954	21014	5847	4918	3429	2147	3049	3119	1726	1745	1169	1206	1482	1728	1603	626	725	737	782	758	913	931	942	949	836	716	772
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	191120	211941	112314	107202	100777	76582	74145	63011	77664	60552	36984	44462	38339	28815	27833	26443	28003	27320	24138	20522	20306	22727	18725	17531	16170	16014	15441
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	191120	211941	112314	107202	100777	76582	74145	63011	77664	60552	36984	44462	38339	28815	27833	26443	28003	27320	24138	20522	20306	22727	18725	17531	16170	16014	15441
NH3	3Da1	10600	12400	4400	2150	2150	2000	3950	4055	4170	4700	4900	5100	5750	5800	5850	5950	6100	6350	5915	6720	7160	7350	7500	7750	8160	8390	8012
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	79795	78544	60362	47568	43471	41656	41742	41539	40291	37412	34524	34223	36215	36962	37331	37915	38256	37692	36291	36718	36690	36183	35298	34585	34596	34720	34025
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	79795	78544	60362	47568	43471	41656	41742	41539	40291	37412	34524	34223	36215	36962	37331	37915	38256	37692	36291	36718	36690	36183	35298	34585	34596	34720	34025
CO	1A4bi	111182	115348	59729	79620	74326	74984	83676	85927	86464	90427	92866	94869	94421	96388	97340	98925	104023	101110	104975	106044	106683	104493	104684	101759	94592	88784	88516
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	519212	597479	377938	316078	275150	335727	310748	326938	310314	281485	195230	189314	191521	182919	180767	180728	191036	194412	184676	175966	157949	174752	168193	161668	153224	146482	145078
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	519212	597479	377938	316078	275150	335727	310748	326938	310314	281485	195230	189314	191521	182919	180767	180728	191036	194412	184676	175966	157949	174752	168193	161668	153224	146482	145078

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A2f	48	48	257	61	62	33	31	19	19	12	14	21	18	11	11	8	8
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	435	480	536	555	565	748	727	625	454	665	732	734	616	448	30	266	561
TSP	2A2	354	567	578	611	609	421	644	569	523	138	311	551	551	468	599	529	502
TSP	2D3b	770	770	770	770	840	980	1260	1540	1960	1260	1120	1260	1400	1400	1260	1176	1246

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2f	302500	390157	247765	281871	232619	122042	91790	59797	45205	36892	41965	40391	280774	52007	53269	29560	23215	18304	16715	10607	13472	22159	14935	8595	7989	6609	6428
Pb	1A3bi	40416713	45681319	27596192	21949057	17916080	25006392	27382710	27382710	2270194	1769809	1367709	1353644	1315218	1311199	482025	472848	496934	598169	589539	494519	399434	347883	310918	281713	276174	269058	290825
Pb	1A3bii	2637563	2981127	1800906	1432378	1169189	1631898	1786974	1786974	148151	115496	89256	88338	85830	85568	31457	30858	32430	39036	38473	32272	26067	22703	20290	18384	18023	17559	18979
Pb	1A3biii	28329583	32019741	19343201	15384914	12558049	17527914	19193563	19193563	1591264	1240525	958678	948820	921885	919068	337870	331437	348319	419279	413230	346627	279978	243844	217934	197463	193581	188593	203850
Pb	1A3biv	8779405	9922994	5994504	4767821	3891769	5431942	5948131	5948131	493136	384442	297097	294042	285694	284821	104707	102713	107945	129935	128061	107420	86766	75568	67538	61194	59991	58445	63174
Pb	1A3bvi	488360	536252	349640	245906	204552	264873	281418	324687	333610	308027	259524	287670	271203	289744	315596	312357	351529	400164	408791	346187	373623	372068	364202	360219	360219	440704	534009
Pb	1A4bi	2649195	2779312	965710	1010146	831907	715256	863979	897708	766677	796577	738176	752862	782070	824556	817069	869576	957725	955953	994350	982164	1097914	1094146	1095363	1087125	980010	882633	905139
Pb	2A3	198597	209515	159654	102126	85942	240237	230333	228609	227708	208631	255887	255887	192669	194566	235727	200985	137704	122451	135354	118320	110286	131175	172095	177257	185435	164086	164086
Pb	2G							53100	178703	143802	151827	303486	132653	218501	172010	336806	353780	430710	663603	710809	281958	337107	350593	470378	588375	537327	476056
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	88077410	99296968	58815745	47240811	38767653	52575943	57278979	57221420	7293153	6020989	5063567	4914716	5137796	4899789	3479825	3176287	3253616	3716768	3786524	3056111	3012444	2923512	2952227	2954769	2789647	2655018	2332761
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	88077410	99296968	58815745	47240811	38767653	52575943	57278979	57221420	7293153	6020989	5063567	4914716	5137796	4899789	3479825	3176287	3253616	3716768	3786524	3056111	3012444	2923512	2952227	2954769	2789647	2655018	2332761
Cd	1A1a	71077	85841	51609	48683	48016	37415	40893	36566	55650	35819	27532	40425	51541	55277	67617	30853	20754	20353	25193	29551	23506	17348	22060	14516	15292	19133	17606
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707	705	688	671
Cd	1A4bi	149796	151572	130019	204670	203287	219153	237550	242753	259485	272055	288582	294973	289952	293069	297676	305708	316745	305168	316671	322363	318617	310305	311589	300455	282366	271671	268434
Cd	2A3	15187	16022	12209	7810	6572	18371	17614	17482	17413	15954	19568	19568	14734	14879	18026	15369	10530	9364	10351	9048	8434	10031	13160	13555	14180	12548	12548
Hg	1A2f	7191	10870	8765	8535	6977	3418	2669	1641	1505	1301	1501	1438	9695	1663	1705	1109	904	824	712	426	557	883	608	397	365	327	345
Hg	1A4bi	91918	97038	32182	31352	24834	19899	24557	25562	20225	20845	18189	18525	19734	21188	20784	22333	25110	25355	26356	25751	29538	29582	29459	29435	26269	23272	24195
Hg	2C1	10580	8390	3870	2360	1750	1720	1590	2050	2530	2340	2320	2460	1750	1580	1470	1125	999	1130	1078	456	48	287	321	284	262	223	187
Hg	5C1biii	347	347	229	127	502	576	716	1695	7565	3142	120	4851	931	212	1743	11323	8290	22476	32126	33055	30712	17536	1924	1173	20	213	233
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	338469	364091	210522	195274	180261	163238	160790	152843	155451	141658	131976	136631	145115	136485	137128	138997	134956	149349	157254	154499	154111	137881	120479	116092	110883	106160	105319
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	338469	364091	210522	195274	180261	163238	160790	152843	155451	141658	131976	136631	145115	136485	137128	138997	134956	149349	157254	154499	154111	137881	120479	116092	110883	106160	105319

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A4ai	4619	5440	2396	2283	2203	2044	1613	1189	1070	852	659	555	636	625	612	270	184	131	125	151	118	122	69	47	42	33	38
DIOX	1A4bi	17332	17930	9831	13453	12693	12921	14352	14731	14985	15682	16065	16412	16301	16611	16794	16978	17803	17276	17935	18143	18102	17700	17717	17199	16029	15202	15105
HCB	5C1bii	52601	52601	14618	42396	12825	49535	16610	16233	15535	6800	22441	28553	27040	73269	37184	66677	61713	3675	412	258	16453	81154	19599	15047	3847		1439
PCB	1A2e	59786	76868	68327	46975	34164	25623	17082	12921	51273	36972	29326	23321	27217	25137	18964	20168	17766	16661	10711	15131	18191	19211	18530	19721	21594	14965	17175
PCB	2C1	264500	209750	96750	59000	43750	43000	39750	51250	63250	58500	58000	61500	43750	39500	36750	28126	24974	28250	26944	11395	1206	7175	8029	7110	6544	5566	4681
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6235504	6823224	3181358	2732331	2276537	1806522	1670491	1406542	1264469	1064285	749262	683554	1035840	806736	789921	36919890	21016145	4836913	4543029	4061924	10407035	1793145	1446879	1596213	1426291	1293663	1365639
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6235504	6823224	3181358	2732331	2276537	1806522	1670491	1406542	1264469	1064285	749262	683554	1035840	806736	789921	36919890	21016145	4836913	4543029	4061924	10407035	1793145	1446879	1596213	1426291	1293663	1365639