Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	21691	23177	13436	10704	11301	10052	10987	9634	10750	8705	6701	7094	6827	6642	6627	5833	5280	5242	4937	4872	4948	4369	4518	3896	3638	4167
NOx	1A2f	5101	4959	2047	873	2146	2027	2204	2237	2164	1854	1441	1550	1857	1926	2060	2196	3502	3120	2639	1655	1721	2014	2140	2216	1576	2889
NOx	1A3biii	32845	28887	23654	12826	10695	12562	13140	12363	14253	11836	17595	18279	17673	17321	17321	16167	19711	15690	17136	15494	16748	17637	19550	21225	21159	17950
NOx	1A3di(i)	7692	12688	23552	13005	12292	11419	10626	4911	4027	5849	7452	8024	8888	8899	9183	11651	11193	9687	7268	10360	11397	11578	9881	7126	898	6145
NOx	1A4bi	3200	3556	2049	2385	2175	2048	2165	2187	2127	2173	2223	2270	2266	2317	2334	2429	2528	2444	2517	2538	2626	2569	2565	2459	2297	2188
NOx	3Da1	12437	14549	5163	2523	2523	2347	4635	4758	4893	5515	5749	5984	6747	6805	6864	6981	7157	7451	6940	7885	8401	8624	8800	9035	9485	9485
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	133394	130326	88755	64642	60443	64058	67154	68789	69055	60646	54922	56559	57357	57738	59150	60333	62902	59897	60513	54766	56612	53503	55565	54594	54404	55013
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	120436	115285	83231	61815	57625	61409	62243	63747	63903	54894	48960	50350	50380	50695	52045	53106	55508	52201	53330	46638	47998	44676	46573	45375	44749	45342
NMVOC	1A3biii	7316	3999	3458	1853	1911	2912	2952	2449	2469	1683	2628	2091	1973	1844	1825	1989	1861	1093	1396	1291	1533	1768	1763	1691	1687	1150
NMVOC	1A4bi	11998	12409	6923	9539	9022	9204	10206	10470	10681	11178	11444	11692	11607	11821	11954	12104	12686	12307	12776	12928	12988	12705	12734	12358	11513	10941
NMVOC	1B2aiv	32239	32867	32867	27650	25763	23745	23458	22434	15415	11535	6725	5672	9363	9996	9974	10137	10290	8620	11406	10060	9782	9958	9844	10217	9133	9542
NMVOC	1B2av	3390	3116	1168	1585	1159	997	1177	1457	1808	1248	1228	1709	1610	1810	2238	2289	2143	1387	2414	2232	2398	2432	2375	2500	2140	2467
NMVOC	2D3h	2509	2449	2390	2330	2270	2211	2151	2091	2032	1972	1912	1853	1793	1733	1674	937	1140	3560	1253	898	1424	930	895	918	1304	1214
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	143658	152277	120833	109694	101097	103279	104437	104859	95314	87173	74266	73151	76790	78149	78649	75071	74614	73000	70824	66839	66879	64538	63839	60465	60283	59358
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	118584	128182	102222	93630	86908	89889	91204	91890	83473	75988	64582	63207	66602	67485	68060	64334	63744	62567	60655	56960	57050	54940	54347	51176	50661	49939
SOx	1A2gviii	7081	9675	5344	3212	2686	2005	1356	1333	1201	899	609	495	505	446	487	517	399	348	294	174	201	173	127	128	139	121
SOx	1A3di(i)	1940	3200	5940	3280	3100	2880	2680	1240	1020	1480	1877	1981	2167	2134	2253	2829	2683	2270	1779	2472	2319	1985	1649	1045	195	1507
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	173293	198889	104719	90309	89605	69365	70088	65114	81428	61504	37642	40310	35301	27552	28422	30908	29710	25902	22856	22262	22374	24179	20632	18811	16887	18232
NH3	1A1a	19	36	33	33	18	21	24	30	36	23	61	106	154	187	237	233	270	280	332	387	389	365	482	550	694	903
NH3	3B3	13010	11642	7263	6389	6730	6783	6024	6512	6146	4985	4602	5414	5667	5619	5705	5920	5969	4901	4754	4937	4934	4185	4230	3951	3743	3596
NH3	3Da1	10600	12400	4400	2150	2150	2000	3950	4055	4170	4700	4900	5100	5750	5800	5850	5950	6100	6350	5915	6720	7160	7350	7500	7700	8084	8084
NH3	3Da2a	15546	14728	10651	9409	8799	8502	8142	8196	7593	6871	6111	6543	6725	6928	6909	7025	7061	6551	6335	6326	6280	5867	5715	5477	5487	5301
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	65931	64854	43211	35923	34118	33696	33762	33863	32062	30150	28096	29886	31320	31876	31894	32438	32595	31106	30162	30935	30789	29671	29464	28804	29196	28851
CO	1A3biii	12472	8698	7300	3948	3620	4887	5023	4387	4720	3531	5414	5005	4809	4644	4637	4380	5251	3770	4356	3998	4908	5639	5620	6182	6233	4539
CO	1A4bi	106916	110852	58454	78546	73571	74502	82991	85197	86036	89992	92610	94611	94091	95991	96977	98920	103915	100946	104799	105918	106619	104395	104604	101633	94533	88991
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	461385	543350	334736	287539	237792	284438	300160	315583	300768	275173	207468	207641	206372	207237	190890	194207	191251	177599	176100	172232	175487	158429	161814	142861	136663	126615

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1a	435	513	496	436	438	400	400	413	420	393	396	315	351	372	427	566
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	435	480	536	555	565	748	727	625	454	665	732	734	616	448	30	266
TSP	2D3b	770	770	770	770	840	980	1260	1540	1960	1260	1120	1260	1400	1400	1260	1176
BC	1A1a	30	39	42	40	45	45	49	54	57	62	60	50	63	70	81	100
BC	1A2f	5	5	10	16	15	182	175	97	65	47	53	65	85	97	58	29
BC	5C2	49	48	49	48	50	47	46	45	45	112	43	43	42	40	40	39

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	608982	646236	464004	435620	371450	276092	282888	253351	332601	249199	167251	215853	233557	235563	266427	260890	285045	336020	314905	355536	345013	315420	408649	492519	551876	694421
Pb	1A2f	374247	346318	184730	102338	110447	100392	95462	105522	115605	102207	93049	89810	102045	117134	133111	143361	189211	188237	162970	96787	134384	197333	184605	187768	166802	174713
Pb	1A3bi	72282873	138173572	64533195	61814457	46487933	69380142	75823621	80591426	171132624	5434936	3519520	3864121	3794659	3896659	3743975	1561158		2796984	2760489	2219279	1794710	1310621	1200527	1018414	1017048	531954
Pb	1A3bii	4717494	1198562	456801	929746	750361	517613	1000008	957900	3492090	55422	58454	51332	49130	39875	41492	6410		20792	19091	18040	19157	24794	16505	21059	21031	44308
Pb	1A3biii	50669740	17966583	14324377	8991046	10972231	18178784	19632185	14919568	4719599	738039	1221893	829039	767765	671161	627942	97204				59240	89429	237144	189455	182782	182537	339700
Pb	1A3biv	15702671	4709531	5526857	6126038	5344326	630228	680615	667533	2328339	49759	51894	54407	54000	43605	32380	12708				32525	50703	72863	62348	110195	111678	4609
Pb	1A3bvi	488360	536252	349640	245906	204552	264873	281418	324687	333610	308027	270600	273249	271203	273014	298698	314249	351529	400164	408791	346187	373623	372068	364202	360219	360219	440704
Pb	1A4ai	1833811	2161437	1132355	1081076	1041601	945448	765434	542289	547318	426507	301924	251733	290360	286881	280270	318112	415925	325445	255524	305708	310730	365733	268094	310818	275204	214385
Pb	1A4bi	2234479	2342125	843518	907798	760931	670704	800074	830504	728904	758284	714154	728425	750642	786879	782650	825140	900746	894500	930053	922432	997324	989389	987097	976810	886212	808046
Pb	2A3	198597	209515	159654	102126	85942	240237	230333	228609	227708	208631	255887	255887	192669	194566	235727	200985	137704	122451	135354	118320	110286	131175	172095	177257	185435	164086
Pb	2G							53100	178703	143802	151827	303486	132653	218501	172010	336806	353780	430710	663603	710809	281958	337107	350593	470378	588375	537327	476056
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	150351594	169584984	88751628	81337729	66606340	91555581	99968497	99927649	184490116	8819061	7251582	7052966	7023213	7031231	7081001	4403156	2987281	6027755	5973027	4986588	4778768	4585159	4521294	4617541	4488878	4089721
Cd	1A2f	26488	24547	12073	6461	7134	6111	6272	7518	8009	8698	6856	6749	9556	12795	13401	14064	14975	15747	14216	9415	9838	13063	13277	14043	12715	12158
Cd	1A3bi	5241	10262	5304	4553	3471	4884	5343	6642	6656	6109	3152	3594	3705	3856	4354	4832	4519	7033	7010	5296	4962	4275	3982	4114	4099	60285
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707	705	4491
Cd	1A3biii	9203	7212	6011	3677	2991	3318	3643	3540	3259	3134	4454	4788	4748	4542	4690	4641	5544	4740	4747	4419	5279	5838	5976	6510	6506	34317
Cd	1A4ai	48043	48957	30931	26674	33073	26854	28843	23105	25158	28725	25642	24399	24532	21643	20360	20724	21807	19910	19427	19645	19953	21923	21350	23013	21851	20830
Cd	2A3	15187	16022	12209	7810	6572	18371	17614	17482	17413	15954	19568	19568	14734	14879	18026	15369	10530	9364	10351	9048	8434	10031	13160	13555	14180	12548
Hg	1A2f	155630	144861	70855	34547	36562	30865	31437	35445	39809	33768	29404	28226	28846	29702	35185	40223	52731	53325	46292	28359	31277	37704	42468	48021	42446	52150
Hg	1A2gviii	14029	20291	13074	5315	4081	3555	4191	4553	3462	3371	2754	3264	4497	5105	5239	5299	4858	4554	4231	2837	3322	3275	3387	3095	2929	2699
Hg	1A4bi	90065	97667	36708	36101	28615	23574	27851	27963	22545	22790	20292	20707	21858	23380	23264	24854	27557	27901	28819	28274	31840	31506	31121	30761	27768	25116
Hg	5C1biii	347	347	229	127	502	576	716	1695	7565	3142	120	4851	931	212	1743	11323	8290	22476	30100	32304	30001	16956	1707	616	6	140
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	617967	656183	424821	359544	326755	260025	247463	229716	250121	212122	181908	174461	200468	184405	190809	209478	225975	234103	224498	221389	223771	212646	198937	203637	190151	685970

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A4bi	18639	19308	10214	13773	12913	13058	14549	14937	15099	15796	16139	16488	16399	16729	16901	17125	17992	17479	18148	18341	18473	18087	18124	17612	16380	15479
DIOX	5C2	1458	1523	1568	1548	1452	1236	1199	1086	1072	1051	1015	1100	1066	1038	1002	973	837	713	703	2111	663	653	643	634	624	617
HCB	1A1a	3838	5921	5409	5351	2939	3136	3536	4310	5226	3404	8429	14584	20982	25550	32325	31691	36681	39130	44994	52973	53031	50167	65250	74605	93900	122097
HCB	3Df	10882704	13621951	9323290	7320131	4187804	4581618	4851321	4935725	4199874	2301337	1714884	1080021	929589	975421	1411855	1605329	1435774	1098910	1070936	931849	1000826	635991	517236	430543	55300	55300
HCB	5C1bii	52601	52601	14618	42396	12825	49535	16610	16233	15535	6800	22441	28553	27040	73269	37184	66677	61713	3675	412	258	16453	81154	19599	15047	3847	11326
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	9382906	9900448	6175301	5742378	5339632	4992470	4827688	4302394	4120579	3882972	3555304	3442212	3406351	3411630	3219950	39282783	22943219	6357581	6035965	5680882	11819312	3161445	2795337	2917311	2732667	2576137