Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A1a	15117	16405	10044	8015	8264	7395	7998	7301	7656	6420	5208	5589	5330	5160	5212	5508	5011	5010	4773	4821	4892	4376	4327	3572	3168
NOx	1A3ai(i)	18	18	12	12	12	15	11	11	10	7	6	6	5	6		3	3	4	2	3	3	2	2	3	1846
NOx	1A3aii(i)	264	340	416	492	568	644	720	796	980	1112	994	1034	991	1065		1527	1545	1669	1872	1253	1526	1608	1507	1507	3
NOx	1A4bi	2948	3307	1836	2083	1843	1744	1860	1868	1784	1814	1858	1897	1901	1950	1964	2056	2145	2082	2139	2156	2248	2200	2194	2103	1962
NOx	3Da1	8451	9886	3508	1714	1714	1595	3149	3233	3325	3747	3907	4066	4584	4624	4664	4744	4863	5063	4716	5358	5708	5860	5979	6139	6139
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	127039	122963	86236	63304	57506	61242	64477	66334	66137	54592	53406	54964	55277	55769	56485	58948	60939	58018	59002	52605	54544	51468	53152	51763	51414
NMVOC	1A3biii	7316	3999	3458	1853	1911	2912	2952	2449	2469	1683	2628	2091	1973	1844	1825	1989	1861	1093	1396	1291	1533	1768	1763	1691	1687
NMVOC	1A4bi	11997	12407	6922	9539	9021	9203	10206	10470	10681	11177	11444	11692	11607	11821	11954	12138	12721	12341	12834	12964	13041	12756	12785	12408	11560
NMVOC	1B2aiv	29279	30102	25473	23829	21835	21521	20781	14926	11065	6389	5315	8865	9529	9552	9616	9782	9933	8373	11126	9706	9437	9595	9485	7925	8796
NMVOC	2H2	4879	4879	4879	4879		4879	4879	4879	4879	4879	4420	4373	4712	4610	4985	4686	4850	5631	4470	4040	3890	4220	4279	4846	4969
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	144918	155157	120611	112220	98729	107711	110741	106341	98518	89646	80154	83730	85382	83715	84854	81025	80564	76852	78234	75179	74604	71876	72636	68017	69260
SOx	1A2f	1431	1322	679	329	359	325	381	481	587	527	506	493	487	551	625	837	1337	1006	1066	934	679	1510	1267	1385	1279
NH3	1A4bi	1	651	665	1086	1092	1192	1285	1312	1417	1486	1587	1622	1591	1606	1633	1654	1710	1645	1704	1739	1698	1652	1659	1597	1504
NH3	3B3	18463	16519	10303	9061	9542	9617	8538	9235	8707	7062	6533	7668	8025	7956	8077	8381	8449	6937	6729	6986	6980	5921	5989	5594	5298
NH3	3Da1	17172	20088	7128	3483	3483	3240	6399	6569	6755	7614	7938	8262	9315	9396	9477	9639	9882	10287	9582	10886	11599	11907	12150	12474	12474
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	84543	84989	55964	47057	43919	42268	44300	44597	42143	40240	37144	39067	40909	41928	41854	44848	44962	43584	42248	43238	43193	42024	41669	40808	40930
CO	1A3biii	12472	8698	7300	3948	3620	4887	5023	4387	4720	3531	5414	5005	4809	4644	4637	4380	5251	3770	4356	3998	4908	5639	5620	6182	6233
CO	1A3dii	3066	37	7	0	0	7	37	37	26	22	21		28	30	40	39	42	40	43	37	47	38	38	36	4624
CO	1A4bi	106830	110772	58410	78509	73504	74479	82983	85186	86025	89981	92597	94598	94078	95979	96966	99351	104362	101379	105249	106376	107297	105053	105265	102270	95134
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	450467	531554	319068	283925	232111	281588	294460	309359	293674	265032	196474	201066	200929	204672	190446	198547	194953	182188	181393	177285	183055	164532	167151	146519	144186

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
TSP	5A	753	667	660	532	567	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	594742	643494	345665	319869	318501	283422	277800	269035	333935	212991	136425	187716	207828	178056	225994	245761	234060	237911	217570	256588	253393	223463	306892	333933	303576
Pb	1A2f	322748	294846	162096	79611	89966	87758	84582	95995	107992	96682	88316	85114	87793	100740	112046	141512	141512	187922	151925	93849	122994	197066	183036	186531	165931
Pb	1A3bi	72282873	138173572	64533195	61814457	46487933	69380142	75823621	80591426	171132624	5434936	3519520	3864121	3794659	3896659	3743975	1561158		2796984	2760489	2219279	1794710	1310621	1200527	1018414	1017048
Pb	1A3bii	4717494	1198562	456801	929746	750361	517613	1000008	957900	3492090	55422	58454	51332	49130	39875	41492	6410		20792	19091	18040	19157	24794	16505	21059	21031
Pb	1A3biii	50669740	17966583	14324377	8991046	10972231	18178784	19632185	14919568	4719599	738039	1221893	829039	767765	671161	627942	97204				59240	89429	237144	189455	182782	182537
Pb	1A3biv	15702671	4709531	5526857	6126038	5344326	630228	680615	667533	2328339	49759	51894	54407	54000	43605	32380	12708				32525	50703	72863	62348	110195	111678
Pb	1A3bvi	488360	536252	349640	245906	204552	264873	281418	324687	333610	308027	270600	273249	271203	273014	298698	314249	351529	400164	408791	346187	373623	372068	364202	360219	360219
Pb	1A4ai	1718332	2030036	1108468	1058776	1015323	933504	751457	532830	538111	416984	298480	250297	288859	284856	279551	317817	415688	324970	255029	305401	310205	365109	267649	310573	274918
Pb	1A4bi	2234465	2342112	843512	907793	760920	670702	800074	830504	728904	758284	714154	728425	750642	786879	782650	825140	900746	894500	930053	922432	997324	989389	987097	976810	886212
Pb	5C1bii	3419	3419	950	2756	834	3220	1080	1055	1010	442	1459	1856	1758	4762	2000	4334	4011	239	27	17	1069	251576	98	0	2
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	149860997	169118561	88573852	81295662	66760646	91499583	99909281	99764929	184299196	8247491	6855770	6805239	6835143	6901485	6783455	4175300	2679902	5514119	5392395	4778052	4549416	4590751	4096908	3942219	3784061
Cd	1A2f	300192	280111	134550	64985	68811	56846	58686	67365	75516	65415	55322	53100	56459	59919	70030	79547	79547	102632	89753	56271	57856	67220	78927	90898	80529
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707	705
Cd	5C1bii	263	263	73	212	64	248	83	81	78	34	112	143	135	366		333	309	18	2	1	82	32461	55	0	0
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	827024	812713	460059	447758	453719	453207	462994	484967	550839	476110	456449	490019	511227	499776	540055	578174	560490	576804	544302	507521	505730	532856	527345	525309	490882
Hg	1A1a	727765	656321	227366	188818	177683	257506	185420	245727	235863	105732	90577	140343	160162	87435	170850	250919	141839	167599	35738	35410	38519	32189	38796	41146	37406
Hg	1A4bi	92590	100448	38590	37864	30478	25175	28944	29563	24146	24391	22152	22576	23673	25129	24821	26374	28886	28824	29700	29159	32818	32594	32259	31713	28636
Hg	5C1bii	147	147	41	119	36	139	47	45	43	19	63	80	76	205		187	173	10	1	1	46	174480	16	0	0
Hg	5C1biii	344	227	125	498	571	710	1679	7495	3113	119	4806	923	211	1727	11000	8214	22269	29535	32006	29725	16800	16800	8	3	1475
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1260667	1202435	550551	454186	421882	459808	379735	436426	432892	244439	240037	283638	309287	243684	340836	429092	339796	380528	238372	209305	208542	386121	200074	206372	193419

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A3bi	172	401	208	167	130	205	208	249	660	212	133	138	137	142	142	154	145		205	171	142	108	107	295	92
DIOX	1A4bi	18632	19302	10211	13770	12908	13057	14549	14937	15099	15796	16139	16488	16399	16729	16901	17148	18016	17503	18172	18366	18509	18122	18159	17646	16412
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	22961	24322	13235	16378	15328	15299	16687	16650	17772	17302	17403	17873	18094	18594	18882	19230	20277	19449	20309	20545	21409	20459	20665	26446	27191
HCB	1A2f	14264	13246	6514	3278	3597	3066	3176	3785	4122	4228	3388	3311	4369	5607	5975	6436	6436	7452	6635	4353	4474	5856	6132	6625	5985
HCB	1A4bi	13997	14511	7457	9940	9270	9353	10451	10736	10795	11293	11591	11841	11909	12112	12212	12593	13229	12850	13343	13478	13706	13398	13433	13065	12127
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	375218561	376376415	372689508	370545947	367658579	364571732	361663319	358803123	1120394	353347251	350592865	347641536	344956194	342228520	338401665	333081239	328012924	324122950	320676844	317121615	310720344	303964344	299776768	296839764	296700857