Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LT Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A1a	15117	16405	10044	8015	8264	7395	7998	7301	7656	6420	5208	5589	5330	5160	5212	5508	5011	5010	4773	4821	4892	4376	4327	3572
NOx	1A3bii	2209	1163	516	990	792	686	831	887	1199	753	907	959	962	967	1096	1345	1609	2536	2796	2183	2485	1601	1419	997
NOx	1A4bi	3009	3361	1864	2105	1891	1755	1860	1868	1784	1814	1858	1897	1901	1950	1964	2053	2142	2079	2139	2153	2233	2185	2179	2089
NMVOC	1A3biii	7316	3999	3458	1853	1911	2912	2952	2449	2469	1683	2628	2091	1973	1844	1825	1989	1861	1093	1396	1291	1533	1768	1763	1691
NMVOC	1A3di(ii)		1839	606	606	606	606	3074	3088	2150	1833	1732	2020	2352	19	25	24	27	25	27	23	545	669	22	21
NMVOC	1A4bi	11997	12408	6922	9539	9022	9203	10206	10470	10681	11177	11444	11692	11607	11821	11954	12159	12744	12363	12834	12986	13152	12864	12894	12512
NMVOC	1B2aiv	29279	30102	25473	23829	21835	21521	20781	14926	11065	6389	5315	8865	9529	9552	9616	9782	9933	8373	11126	9706	9437	9595	9485	7925
NMVOC	2H2	4879	4879	4879	4879		4879	4879	4879	4879	4879	4420	4373	4712	4610	4985	4686	4850	5631	4470	4040	3890	4220	4279	4846
NMVOC	5A	2264	2267	2305	2059	2079	2270	2248	2246	2254	2275	2538	2248	2223	1793	1909	1902	1892	1992	1923	1749	1709	1618
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	120673	132343	103021	97263	85690	95507	98738	94370	88049	79621	71928	75073	76490	74160	75585	76314	75705	72518	74653	72037	71469	68522	68077	63394
NH3	3Da1	19845	16524	7638	4674	3345	3240	6399	6569	6755	7614	7938	8262	9315	9396	9477	9639	11745	11907	9963	10854	11664	11907	12150	12150
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	97721	90873	63251	54447	49427	47538	49561	47921	45207	42901	39318	41083	42958	43904	43847	44672	46860	45228	42413	43072	43217	41978	41515	40410
CO	1A3biii	12472	8698	7300	3948	3620	4887	5023	4387	4720	3531	5414	5005	4809	4644	4637	4380	5251	3770	4356	3998	4908	5639	5620	6182
CO	1A4bi	106967	110901	110901	58528	73673	74573	83089	85324	86122	90082	92662	94667	94161	96108	97086	99387	104478	101498	105434	106573	107271	105051	105326	101969
CO	1A4ci	15574	5141	1300	1389	25	1048	1339	1366	1639	1698	1185	1185	1774	2243	1401		1312		1650	1735	1798	2086	2086	2294
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	453273	538185	371569	249130	226154	275210	287640	307490	286547	262223	199373	204174	200854	204774	187923	196527	193381	178768	181948	177276	182364	166604	168245	146352

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	594742	643494	345665	319869	318501	283422	277800	269035	333935	212991	136425	187716	207828	178056	225994	245761	234060	237911	217570	256588	253393	223463	306892	333933
Pb	1A3bi	72282873	138173572	64533195	61814457	46487933	69380142	75823621	80591426	171132624	5434936	3519520	3864121	3794659	3896659	3743975	1561158		2796984	2760489	2219279	1794710	1310621	1200527	1018414
Pb	1A3bii	4717494	1198562	456801	929746	750361	517613	1000008	957900	3492090	55422	58454	51332	49130	39875	41492	6410		20792	19091	18040	19157	24794	16505	21059
Pb	1A3biii	50669740	17966583	14324377	8991046	10972231	18178784	19632185	14919568	4719599	738039	1221893	829039	767765	671161	627942	97204				59240	89429	237144	189455	182782
Pb	1A3biv	15702671	4709531	5526857	6126038	5344326	630228	680615	667533	2328339	49759	51894	54407	54000	43605	32380	12708				32525	50703	72863	62348	110195
Pb	1A4ai	228998	2180317	1238270	125134	1173207	1051698	187314	663730	187042	242270	228271	428052	218484	187942	175617	174006	171598	164255	168942	164241	166795	508755	187694	199218
Pb	1A4bi	2236429	2344075	2344075	845988	764181	673044	803064	834404	731634	761144	715974	730375	752982	790519	786030	828520	906466	900220	937723	930492	1005644	998099	997627	976810
Pb	1A4ci	1706220	223344	31398	29422	3921	12430	20401	14592	16483	14046	9379	9379	13319	19292	12452	1365602	14626		12529	12983	13316	16547	16547	18202
Pb	1A4cii	1034280	1218750	101868	90922	1206	82212	72826	79222	87438	74542	390364	390364	212225	182520	162552	79222	132821	143000	123370	93262	103428	93626	93626	102989
Pb	5C1bii	3419	3419	950	2756	834	3220	1080	1055	1010	442	1459	1856	1758	4762	2417	4334	4011	239	27	17	1069	251576	3172	0
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	150967470	170669449	90440294	80484935	66936288	91873093	99575440	100123495	184181884	8283209	7331214	7515829	7081874	7095152	6964317	5548943	2559248	5492368	5477387	4763486	4540092	4835494	4182015	3900603
Cd	1A3bii	925	479	217	470	354	278	348	405	86237	340	392	456	482	484	584	714	874	1521	1655	1296	1609	1090	1007	707
Cd	1A4ci	45925	5068	2486	3114	1831	2836	3474	3876	4786	5182	3565	3565	5463	6832	4100	14592	3574		4948	5295	5452	6317	6317	6948
Cd	5C1bii	263	263	73	212	64	248	83	81	78	34	112	143	135	366	186	333	309	18	2	1	82	32461	244	4
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	563522	559709	351446	297229	381165	404142	397606	423346	472786	405358	398478	436657	453272	444383	477213	514283	477290	474010	458974	447812	446359	472416	455954	433435
Hg	1A1a	727765	656321	227366	188818	177683	257506	185420	245727	235863	105732	90577	140343	160162	87435	170850	250919	141839	167599	35738	35410	38519	32189	38796	41146
Hg	1A4ci	107033	15021	2730	2155	685	1189	1475	1196	1153	868	826	826	999	1222	1151	3876	1487		1185	1031	1144	1247	1247	1372
Hg	5C1bii	147	147	41	119	36	139	47	45	43	19	63	80	76	205	104	187	173	10	1	1	46	174480	137	0
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1272283	1215686	622237	402980	438287	469720	349566	445190	413199	234730	236309	293290	307225	239067	338130	424374	337553	370220	240145	200927	209688	405510	233538	228611

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A3bi	172	401	208	167	130	205	208	249	660	212	133	138	137	142	142	154	145		205	171	142	108	107	295
DIOX	1A4ci	2725	351	59	58	9	32	47	40	47	45	31	31	45	60	38	168	38	5	45	50	53	62	62	68
HCB	1A4ci	16230	1827	940	1184	1498	1086	1328	1486	1836	1990	1369	1369	2098	2637	1582	23190	1353		2009	2267	2295	2623	2623	2885
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	134410	129414	80993	67285	99093	102173	107496	113512	183078	123745	197907	146363	157822	167531	177997	201848	187080	185720	195461	198047	199842	196331	213124	105852