Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: LI      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
NOx1A2gviii3028272724232121211916151617161515121310988888887777
NMVOC1A3bv2122121651651091103942444749443333333333332211111
NMVOC3B1b2121201920212120191717161819212223252525252627262726282525272828
SOx1A3bi131312107666775443000000000000000000
SOx1A3biii151514125444563333000000000000000000
NH31A3bi45678891010111414131312111110109877655444444
NH33B222222133332322233233333333333333
CO1A4bi1441021421291551161021141191191871091061261251251281471321401281341331121151261201111271169187

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
PM2.51A2gvii3333232221111111110000
PM2.51A3bi5443333222211111111000
PM2.51A3bii2222211111111110000000
PM2.51A4cii2222222211111111111111
PM2.55C1a1111111111111111111111
PM101A2gvii3333232221111111110000
PM101A3bii2222222211111111000000
PM101A4cii2222222211111111111111
TSP2I5432223222222222222222

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Pb1A1a27656276562765627656276562765669140000000000000000000000000
Pb1A3aii(i)35923592359235923592359236283663369837333769380439723863375436443535342633173208309829892880259229702814194912051403397328362940
Pb1A3bi569432495693420095333019277734211850161769128120836924710995189598967097319781982598409884991199319922100231006910099101201014010146101441020310132100379922
Cd1A3biii6970717174747373767982807979818183838382848483848383838384868687
Cd1A4bi450312449408513379335388412427707407399491498509531642582634595647659561608681658615733673533517