Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LI Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2gviii	30	28	27	27	24	23	21	21	21	19	16	15	16	17	16	15	15	12	13	10	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7
NMVOC	1A3bv	212	212	165	165	109	110	39	42	44	47	49	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
NMVOC	3B1b	21	21	20	19	20	21	21	20	19	17	17	16	18	19	21	22	23	25	25	25	25	26	27	26	27	26	28	25	25	27	28
SOx	1A3bi	13	13	12	10	7	6	6	6	7	7	5	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	15	15	14	12	5	4	4	4	5	6	3	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NH3	3B2	2	2	2	2	2	1	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
CO	1A4bi	144	102	142	129	155	116	102	114	119	119	187	109	106	126	125	125	128	147	132	140	128	134	133	112	115	126	120	111	127	116	91

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A2gvii	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bi	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A4cii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	5C1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A2gvii	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A4cii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A2gvii	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A4cii	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	2I	5	4	3	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
TSP	3B1b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	5C1a	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	27656	27656	27656	27656	27656	27656	6914	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A3aii(i)	3592	3592	3592	3592	3592	3592	3628	3663	3698	3733	3769	3804	3972	3863	3754	3644	3535	3426	3317	3208	3098	2989	2880	2592	2970	2814	1949	1205	1403	3973	2836
Pb	1A3bi	569432	495693	420095	333019	277734	211850	161769	128120	83692	47109	9518	9598	9670	9731	9781	9825	9840	9884	9911	9931	9922	10023	10069	10099	10120	10140	10146	10144	10203	10132	10037
Pb	1A4bi	1138	841	1163	1056	1214	931	802	916	972	949	1601	918	896	1094	1092	1107	1139	1363	1233	1329	1248	1356	1371	1166	1264	1415	1369	1278	1523	1399	1108
Cd	1A3biii	69	70	71	71	74	74	73	73	76	79	82	80	79	79	81	81	83	83	83	82	84	84	83	84	83	83	83	83	84	86	86
Cd	1A4bi	450	312	449	408	513	379	335	388	412	427	707	407	399	491	498	509	531	642	582	634	595	647	659	561	608	681	658	615	733	673	533

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A4bi	32	23	32	29	36	27	24	27	29	30	48	28	27	34	34	34	36	43	39	42	39	42	43	36	39	43	41	37	44	39	31
HCB	1A4bi	228	168	219	208	245	192	172	198	211	210	312	195	197	235	236	238	249	274	258	282	259	275	281	246	254	281	263	244	277	254	201