Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: LI      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
NOx1A2gviii30282727242321212119161516171615151213109888888877
NMVOC1A3bv21221216516510911039424447494433333333333322111
SOx1A3bi1313121076667754430000000000000000
SOx1A3biii1515141254445633330000000000000000
NH33B31518151214157108913813136111010101111111011101111111010

PM (Unit = Mg)
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
PM2.51A2gvii33332322211111111100
PM2.51A3bii22222111111111100000
PM2.51A4cii22222222111111111111
PM2.55C1a11111111111111111111
PM101A2gvii33332322211111111100
PM101A3bii22222222111111110000
PM101A4cii22222222111111111111
PM102I32222222222222222222
TSP1A2gvii33332322211111111100
TSP1A3bii22222222111111110000
TSP3B321221211112111122211

HM (Unit = g)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Pb1A1a276562765627656276562765627656691400000000000000000000000
Pb1A3aii(i)359235923592359235923592362836633698373337693804397238633754364435353426331732083098298928802592297028141949120514033973
Pb1A3bi569432495693420095333019277734211850161769128120836924710995189598967097319781982598409884991199319922100231006910099101201014010146101441020310132
Cd1A3biii686970717374727376798279787980808283838284848384848487909496