Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LI Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	1A3bv	280	218	219	145	147	53	57	60	63	66	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	6
SOx	1A3bi	13	12	12	11	7	6	6	6	7	7	5	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	16	15	14	12	5	4	5	4	5	5	3	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	2G	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	5C1a	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
PM10	2I	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi	621604	542738	458925	362741	300876	227827	172154	134731	86987	48536	9735	9780	9820	9837	9854	9873	9819	9827	9804	9786	9741	9843	9917	10010	10102	10180	10243	10292