Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: LI      Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
NMVOC1A3bv28021821914514753576063666666666666666665  
SOx1A3bi1312121176667754430000000000000 
SOx1A3biii1615141254545533330000000000000 

PM (Unit = Mg)
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
PM2.51A4cii22222222222112111 
PM2.55C1a11111111111111111 
PM101A3bii22221111111111110 
PM102I32222222222222222 
PM105C1a11111111111111111 
TSP1A3bii22221111111111110 
TSP5C1a22221111111111111 

HM (Unit = g)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Pb1A3bi6216045427384589253627413008762278271721541347318698748536973597809820983798549873981998279804978697419843991710010101021018010243 
PbNATIONALTOTAL664956586274500399399427325215246141189092151367102710642352520124348244092447122906234212330824185241542444124617249572488923813245632482723574