Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: LI      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A1a12203130282831293028252319191715121086444422
NOx1A4cii2122212021202022212221222224242223242323221717232019
NMVOC1A3bi111978170625448423632272420181614121198765544
NMVOC1A3bv2802182191451475357606366666666666666666 
SOx1A3bi131212117666775443000000000000
SOx1A3biii161514125454553333000000000000

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
PM2.51A3bii2211111111111100
PM2.51A4bi5334444667788789
PM2.51A4cii2222222222211211
PM2.55C1a1111111111111111
PM2.5NATIONALTOTAL36302932303131323133333436333435
PM101A3bii2222111111111111
PM101A4bi5334445667888799
PM105C1a1111111111111111
PM10NATIONALTOTAL43363537353636373638373940383939
TSP1A3bii2222111111111111
TSP1A4bi53344456678998910
TSP5C1a2222111111111111
TSPNATIONALTOTAL46393840383939403941404244414243

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Pb1A3bi62160454273845892536274130087622782717215413473186987485369735978098209837985498739819982798049786974198439917100101010210180
PbNATIONALTOTAL6646405859455000563990683248432457551886921509531022756378224730238672392323977224062291322795236682363523918240912442824358232822403224295
Cd1A3bi146148149151152154156157159160162164165167169170172174176177179184188193198202
Cd1A3biii422426431435440444448453458462467472476481486491496501506511516531546561576591
Hg1A4ai122108110119117111109120131122128114125137141144154132145154143140145139116136