Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LI Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bi	223	216	196	182	171	160	151	142	134	126	119	113	106	101	95	91	81	78	72	71	68	66	64
NOx	1A4cii	30	31	30	29	30	29	28	32	30	32	30	31	32	34	35	32	33	34	33	33	32	24	25
SOx	1A3bi	13	12	12	10	6	6	6	6	6	7	4	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	16	15	14	12	5	4	5	4	5	5	3	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	1A3bi	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	12	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	9	8	8

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A3bii	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM2.5	1A4ai	4	2	3	3	4	4	4	6	6	7	8	8	9
PM2.5	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5
PM2.5	3I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A4ai	4	2	3	3	4	4	4	6	6	7	8	8	9
PM10	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5
PM10	2D3b	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2
PM10	5C1bi	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3bii	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A4ai	4	2	3	3	4	4	4	6	6	7	8	8	9
TSP	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5
TSP	2D3b	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	3648	3648	3648	3648	3648	3648	3684	3720	3756	3792	3828	3863	4034	4212	3016	4075	6296	6584	6827	8847	6543	7004	2890
Pb	1A3bi	565795	491171	413762	326044	270436	205258	155495	121930	78883	44060	8849	8892	8929	8953	8952	8952	8901	8911	8862	9097	9110	9257	9388
Pb	5C1bi	4000	4010	4020	4030	4040	4050	4060	4070	4080	4090	4100	4110	4120	4130	4140	4019	4134	4169	4230	4280	4331	4364	4388
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	643223	559700	473348	374408	310645	236454	181712	145107	98072	59829	22269	21175	21599	22553	21607	22843	25617	26555	26995	30159	28129	30181	26811
Cd	1A3bi	146	148	149	151	152	154	156	157	159	160	162	164	165	167	169	170	172	174	176	177	179	184	188
Cd	1A3biii	422	426	431	435	440	444	448	453	458	462	467	472	476	481	486	491	496	501	506	511	516	531	546
Hg	5C1bi	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	5C1bi	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7