Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: KZ Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	11B	136	574	180	93	609	2720	1216	24300	2330	2742	1712	2524	2004	4525	5998	1712	2906	8944	770	276	870	317	536	126	168	744	36	816	7386	3761
NMVOC	2D3d	9623	7616	4059	2223	1084	1222	1148	366	198	2625	3528	3287	1954	2180	3045	4631	5725	7856	6835	9866	8677	10125	13658	17341	14689	14972	14717	15977	18766
SOx	1A2e	4506	4350	24240	22690	18470	11950	10370	10720	10510	10400	8653	7920	9080	9020	7520	7019	5750	6800	9440	7150	8094	1965	3576	2507	2210	2480	2860	3470	3086	1755
SOx	1A3biii	33	27	26	19	16	13	11	9	9	9	13	15	15	16	32	20	23	26	26	26	25	27	33	28	25	25	22	20	21	320720
NH3	11B	32	129	43	21	137	612	274	5430	375	617	385	567	451	1080	1350	385	653	2012	473	66	192	71	121	27	380	167	8	184	1672	752
NH3	11C	288	288	288	288	886	4185	1732	6925	2553	4102	2596	4114	2938	6925	2164	2569	4721	1547	641	470	833	488	234	31	231	1690	216	4900	1530	1085
CO	11C	6459	6459	6459	6459	19380	93680	38770	155060	54920	93680	58150	83990	65770	155060	48460	56460	105720	34064	14360	10540	16710	10920	5230	640	5170	37850	4980	109700	34240	162677
CO	1A3ai(i)	1417	4004	1649	583	175	151	125	125	91	47	34	18	31	14	30	76	136	188	216	183	150	234	312	414	432	550	579	658	711	355139
CO	1A3ai(ii)	1417	4004	1649	583	175	151	125	125	91	47	34	18	31	14	30	76	136	188	216	183	150	234	312	414	432	550	228	311	711	355139
CO	1A3bi	84424	67941	64228	49003	41266	33487	27457	23993	22227	300	24348	25614	30290	31165	32719	38753	43415	49942	47928	45992	46043	42324	43720	41961	42230	37965	36699	26986	28061	16690
CO	1A3bi(fu)	84424	67941	64228	49003	41266	33487	27457	23993	22227	300	24348	25614	30290	31165	32719	38753	43415	49942	47928	45992	46043	42324	43720	41961	42230	37965	36699	26986	28061	28061
CO	1A3c	8147	7332	44312	39548	34793	30045	25293	20573	15825	11477	12391	7645	7661	7774	10242	5846	5629	4106	3560	3780	131	149	126	171	201	125	0	1	18	12380

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A3c	2663	1637	1639	1661	2195	1252	1201	872	755	802	13	14	12	16	19	12	13	24	151	1585
PM2.5	2C1	1838	1810	1869	1976	2060	1763	1711	1896	1579	1468	1456	1587	1359	302	1519	1392	1100	1678	1460
PM2.5	2C3								1	637	76	136	149	149	150	126	133	141	153	155
PM2.5	2D3b	1	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	5	7	10	11	13	24	24	24	32	37	27228
PM10	11C	9840	11630	11130	26240	8200	9290	17890	5860	2430	1789	3160	1850	880	100	870	6400	845	18600	5795	596
PM10	1A3c	9078	5571	5572	5646	7474	4261	4079	2951	2556	2713	14	15	13	18	21	13	20	157	0	1666
PM10	2D3b	6	20	29	31	31	33	27	33	21	39	52	77	86	99	181	180	181	243	277	204213
TSP	2D3b	26	93	134	143	143	152	124	155	99	181	244	360	401	464	843	840	846	1133	1291	952994
BC	11B	110	163	129	159	387	188	188	577	50	18	56	21	36	8	11	48	2	53	477
BC	11C	720	1050	820	1930	600	720	1320	430	180	130	230	140	65	8	26	470	66	1400	430
BC	1A3c	9	13	15	18	15	10	15	17	15	16	20	23	19	26	30	19	130	0	1
BC	2A1	0	1	0		3	3	4	4	7	7	8	8	17	22	24	26	26	28	29	28
BC	2C1	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	6	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	280
BC	2D3b	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1552

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3di(i)	1761882	10951900	1044229	891066	758433	745597	522938	477190	360994	305326	277931	49723	62347	70260	60118	75185	103710	214011	347415	221186	223242	106850	111699	99629	80679	266484	181226	152715	123103	861
Pb	1A3di(ii)	1761882	10951900	1044229	891066	758433	745597	522938	477190	360994	305326	277931	49723	62347	70260	60118	75185	103710	214011	347415	221186	223242	106850	111699	99629	80679	266484	181226	152715	123103	861
Pb	1A3dii	1541791	9629365	913554	792048	567330	605091	321693	240075	179605	146426	112017	22685	26182	19101	19101	20406	32885	174103	484006	854075	909386	431961	338136	346477	212607	534874	384120	186417	210094	19
Pb	2C7a	6703200	6318000	6487000	6057000	5394000	5045000	5227000	6221000	6675000	7286000	7863000	8238000	8478000	8207000	8460100	7949000	8071000	7463850	7459000	7458930	6054000	6432000	6976000	6689000	5601000	7458000	7760000	8097629	8324185	366559000
Cd	1A3di(i)	136172	843067	80874	68711	58430	57398	40271	36740	27784	23554	21563	4045	5011	5617	4828	5979	8165	16636	26889	17176	17325	8366	8725	7780	6320	20609	14052	11849	9574	66
Cd	1A3di(ii)	136172	843067	80874	68711	58430	57398	40271	36740	27784	23554	21563	4045	5011	5617	4828	5979	8165	16636	26889	17176	17325	8366	8725	7780	6320	20609	14052	11849	9574	66
Cd	1A3dii	118599	740720	70273	60927	43641	46545	24746	18467	13816	11264	8617	1745	2014	1469	1469	1570	2530	13393	37231	65698	69953	33228	26010	26652	16354	41144	29548	14340	16161	1
Cd	2C1	1165551	1151300	1045000	758400	602000	848600	676200	809900	420000	455000	863800	806900	932000	1094540	1164000	935000	1023200	1055000	863000	768000	961000	941000	871000	824000	783000	483000	157200	528709	510991
Cd	5C1biii																	38	5418	8010	71986	77251	47372	41777	32957	67712	72240	72240	72240	56004	1963046
Hg	1A3di(i)	404337	2525216	239055	205045	174711	171905	120522	110004	83252	70225	63494	10702	13634	15471	13162	16665	23279	48778	79595	50478	50983	24145	25311	22583	18220	61109	41431	34885	28044	199
Hg	1A3di(ii)	404337	2525216	239055	205045	174711	171905	120522	110004	83252	70225	63494	10702	13634	15471	13162	16665	23279	48778	79595	50478	50983	24145	25311	22583	18220	61109	41431	34885	28044	199
Hg	1A3dii	355798	2222161	210820	182780	130922	139636	74237	55402	41447	33791	25850	5235	6042	4408	4408	4709	7589	40178	111694	197094	209858	99683	78031	79956	49063	123432	88643	43019	48483	4
Hg	2C1	3448187	3348400	3063000	2266900	1695000	2197700	1848200	2228000	1377000	1591000	2497800	2377900	2643000	3002950	3173000	2602000	2747200	2895000	2377000	2150200	2511000	2535000	2296000	2177300	2201000	1566000	785900	1783627	1650623
Hg	5C1biii																	202	29120	43056	386924	415222	254627	224554	177145	363952	388290	388290	388290	301022	10551374
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4350317	8233140	3648538	2790511	2119312	2620514	2150985	2502925	1616122	1813738	2709867	2514567	2784743	3142542	3316789	2746575	2901107	3136159	2735629	2904686	3309603	3039452	2748918	2583399	2762551	2272007	1440818	2389886	2169476	20651019
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4350317	8233140	3648538	2790511	2119312	2620514	2150985	2502925	1616122	1813738	2709867	2514567	2784743	3142542	3316789	2746575	2901107	3136159	2735629	2904686	3309603	3039452	2748918	2583399	2762551	2272007	1440818	2389886	2169476	20033519
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4350317	8233140	3648538	2790511	2119312	2620514	2150985	2502925	1616122	1813738	2709867	2514567	2784743	3142542	3316789	2746575	2901107	3136159	2735629	2904686	3309603	3039452	2748918	2583399	2762551	2272007	1440818	2389886	2169476	20033519

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3di(i)	2	11	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
DIOX	1A3di(ii)	2	11	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
HCB	2C1	917	874	803	607	433	505	447	544	400	478	640	623	666	733	768	649	661	712	583	548	589	616	546	516	558	443	234	516	466
HCB	5C1biii																	470	67720	100130	899824	965632	592155	522218	411966	846400	903000	1007080	678130	700050	24538
PCB	1A3di(i)	509515	3196083	300545	259035	220933	217564	152477	139200	105388	88676	79669	12649	16384	18722	15835	20303	28717	61070	100141	63274	63951	29980	31513	28125	22611	76949	52020	43769	35093	251708
PCB	1A3di(ii)	509515	3196083	300545	259035	220933	217564	152477	139200	105388	88676	79669	12649	16384	18722	15835	20303	28717	61070	100141	63274	63951	29980	31513	28125	22611	76949	52020	43769	35093	251708
PCB	2C7a	317520000	299000000	307000000	287000000	256000000	239000000	248000000	295000000	316000000	345000000	372500000	390000000	402000000	388750000	400740000	377000000	382310000	353551000	353320000	299570000	287000000	305000000	330000000	317000000	265330000	353250000	368000000	383571900	394
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	318513023	305041796	307596833	287512914	256400988	239409857	248262188	295228348	316173606	345151575	372636461	390042741	402048334	388799547	400787935	377048653	382369695	353700268	353602048	300080579	287540543	305293956	330251112	317227859	265602955	353682465	368387086	383828590	116543	123934754
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	318513023	305041796	307596833	287512914	256400988	239409857	248262188	295228348	316173606	345151575	372636461	390042741	402048334	388799547	400787935	377048653	382369695	353700268	353602048	300080579	287540543	305293956	330251112	317227859	265602955	353682465	368387086	383828590	116543	123945494
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	318513023	305041796	307596833	287512914	256400988	239409857	248262188	295228348	316173606	345151575	372636461	390042741	402048334	388799547	400787935	377048653	382369695	353700268	353602048	300080579	287540543	305293956	330251112	317227859	265602955	353682465	368387086	383828590	116543	123945494