Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: KZ Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	11C	1371	1371	1371	1371	4111	19880	8230	32910	11650	19880	12340	17830	13960	32910	10280	12340	22440	7350	3050	2240	4070	2320	1110	14	3840	8020	1060
NOx	1A3bii	19266	16705	17049	13907	12568	10881	9521	8897	8766	9154	10916	12257	12257	251	18842	23785	28348	34617	35249	35249	38079	38115	48302	42760	44040	43024	40739
NOx	1A3dii	4161	785		220097	582794	582794	585827	439410	205220	8256	50	38980	21692	21692	21692				21692	853	811	1401	2169	1991	970	2389	4952
NMVOC	1A3aii(i)	68	68	68	56	56	124	124	107	107	106	101	88	88	5	8	9	11	12	13	13	14	14	13	13	13	13	22
NMVOC	1A3c	7067	6361	1796	1437	1221	1099	934	1214	1093	667	876	1227	1449	1671	1403	897	1405	1583	1443	1537	1866	2126	1792	2437	1429	4510	0
NMVOC	1A3dii	151	30		7495	19843	19843	19946	14961	6988	281	2	1328	739	739	739				739	31	29	50	77	71	35	85	175
NMVOC	2D3c	44	90	51	35	13	6	8	6	3	2	2	8	11	12	12	13	10	13	8	15	20	30	34	39	70	70	71
NMVOC	2D3d	9623	7616	4059	2223	1084	1222	1148	366	198	2625	3528	3287	1954	2180	3045	4631	5725	7856	6835	9866	8677	10125	13658	17341	14689	14972	14717
NMVOC	2H2	3334	6191	9566	5616	4769	2917	2194	1989	1945	2385	2632	2763	3023	2655	3610	3674	3921	3998	4035	3780	4216	4112	4258	4964	5238	4949	5270
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	379744	465	558	565	700	251326	132	83	26	41	169846					204361				192916	277188	258785	289719	279901	312239	299755	296714
NH3	11B	32	134	36	22	416	632	382	5631	384	639	398	588	460	1052	1395	398	676	2156	179	65	202	85	125	29	39	170	8
NH3	1A3bi	1508	1202	1129	851	712	572	463	401	366	351	5034	393	393	464	478	8486	608	684	638	590	575	509	580	464	458	371	350
CO	1A3bi	120731	96334	89790	67663	56277	45277	36397	31189	28448	121	30237	31287	31287	36876	37966	43995	48203	54199	50758	47386	46116	40250	45446	36784	37732	30425	28347
CO	1A3dii	80	79		20539	54385	54385	54667	41004	19151	771	1	3638	2024	2024	2024				2024	81	77	132	205	188	91	225	467

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11C	8544	12341	9664	22784	7120	8544	15533	5090	2109	1548	2818	1605	769	94	2658	5450	734
PM2.5	1A3biii	388	457	457	569	626	781	921	1060	1068	1113	1073	1259	1604	1340	634	1241	1213
PM2.5	1A3dii	1	2742	1530	1530	1530				1530	15	14	25	39	36	17	43	140
PM2.5	2C1	1838	1810	1869	1976	2060	1763	1711	1896	1579	1468	1456	1587	1359	302	1519	1392	1100
PM2.5	2C3								1	637	76	136	149	149	150	126	133	141
PM10	11C	10442	15084	11815	27847	8707	10442	18952	6221	2583	1892	3444	1961	939	114	3248	6780	897
PM10	1A3dii	1	3035	1694	1694	1694				1694	16	15	27	41	38	19	46	152
TSP	11C	16138	23311	18254	43036	13449	16138	29340	9616	3984	2924	5322	3031	1452	177	5020	10480	1386
BC	11B	145	168	134	302	400	114	194	618	51	19	58	21	36	8	11	48	2
BC	11C	768	1111	868	2050	640000	769	1398	458	190	139	253	144	69	8	239	500	66

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3dii	6891149	1300605		1278883	1842391	1842391	1589510	1257165	855468	314136	83415	435249	100611	100611	100611				100611	1412457	1342224	2320244	3592269	3297033	1606377	3956439	6583360
Cd	1A3dii	530088	100047		115419	186924	186924	167719	130792	81712	24791	6417	36489	9420	9420	9420				9420	108651	103248	178480	276328	253618	123567	304341	506488
Cd	2C1	1165551	1151300	1045000	758400	602000	848600	676200	809900	420000	455000	863800	806900	932000	1094540	1164000	935000	1023200	1055000	863000	768000	961000	941000	871000	824000	783000	483000	157200
Cd	2C7a	3880800	3658000	3755000	3507000	3123000	2921000	3026000	3601000	3864000	4218000	4552	4769000	4908000	4751000	4897900	4602000	4673000	4321170	4318000	3661000	3505000	3724000	4039000	3873000	3243000	4318000	4493000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5633051	4959774	4837388	4418905	3935183	3974474	3885430	4560027	4389520	4725748	906265	5643560	5888801	5900709	6116129	5579884	5740126	5422008	5231095	4571268	4606244	4886872	5226431	4991067	4190804	5149941	5540280
Hg	1A3dii	1590265	300140		235475	266961	266961	207738	170811	141740	70299	19250	89912	17335	17335	17335				17335	325952	309744	535441	828985	760854	370702	913024	1518971
Hg	2C1	3448187	3348400	3063000	2266900	1695000	2197700	1848200	2228000	1377000	1591000	2497800	2377900	2643000	3002950	3173000	2602000	2747200	2895000	2377000	2150200	2511000	2535000	2296000	2177300	2201000	1566000	785900
Hg	2C5	29030	26440	24320	25500	13770	8850	6730	8200	11860	15900	18580	15870	16220	13320	15700	13545	11597	11764	10580	8090	10340	11552	8810	9107	12706	11989	13400
Hg	5C1biii																	202	29120	43056	386924	415222	254627	224554	177145	363952	388290	388290
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1731846	437130	133270	369125	383761	376611	314398	279221	255310	188425	141305	210232	138993	136634	143005	122888	122538	122867	141432	445743	432284	661438	954007	887268	501018	1046200	2758626

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	22	15	4	5	7	6	6	5	4	2	2	3	3			2	3	3	3	5	5	7	7	8	5	375	430
HCB	5C1biii																	470	67720	100130	899824	965632	592155	522218	411966	846400	903000	1007080
PCB	2C5	580600000	528800000	486400000	510200000	275400000	177000000	134600000	164000000	237200000	371600000	317000000	317440000	324350000	266356000	314032000	270892000	231948000	235282000	211532000	161988000	206800000	231060000	176178000	182144000	254128000	239786000	268288000
PCB	2C6	629800000	527000000	463000000	477000000	345000000	338000000	340000000	378000000	481000000	498000000	525200000	554000000	572900000	589130000	633500000	714000000	729600000	716450000	731140000	655700000	638000000	638000000	639694000	640000000	649892000	649000000	652000000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1527951620	1354829920	1256428300	1274221370	876413600	754014905	722615202	837018430	1034215000	1214619600	1214723152	1261462590	1299273400	1244260386	1348297570	1361913400	1343878310	1305305810	1296011460	1117274870	1131816800	1174078408	1145887500	1139159240	1169368013	1242053680	1291318414