Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: KZ Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	863234	400523	377892	372248	296558	282707	251954	213232	228013	205179	362878					521920					637718	643116	678725	682994	658906	688549
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	342080	465	558	565	700	1222	132	83	26	41	153657					183456					253200	236756	268350	257984	290142	277457
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	371808	420	690	610	390	320	70	70	260	270	158045					205860					231032	220701	224088	226573	235304	242871
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1572917	1975303	1959498	1801362	1425856	1421921	1450551	1378799	1345418	1187390	625079					718225					1251958	1097229	1361437	1196161	1519661	1354456

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BC	11C	533					527					177	100	48	6	132	354

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A3dii	6891149										83415										1342224	2320244	3592269	3297033	1606377	3956439
Cd	1A3dii	530088										6417										103248	178480	276328	253618	123567	304341
Cd	2C1	1165551										863800					935000					961000	941000	871000	824000	783000	483000
Cd	2C7a	3880800										4552					4602000					3505000	3724000	4039000	3873000	3243000	4318000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5633051										905710					5566748					4673595	4919712	5253509	5010656	4246013	5212107
Hg	1A3dii	1590265										19250										309744	535441	828985	760854	370702	913024
Hg	5C1biii																					415222	254627	224554	177145	363952	388290

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	5158										692					649					967046	594199	524975	414511	847947	905878
PCB	2C5	580600000										37160000					270892000					206800000	231060000	176178000	182144000	254128000	239786000
PCB	2C6	629800000										52520000					714000000					638000000	638000000	639694000	640000000		649000000
PCB	2C7a	317520000										372473					377000000					287000000	305000000	330000000	317000000	265000000	353000000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1529965956										90100008					1361913400					1132402269	1174875065	1147041991	1140205381	519784849	1243123098