Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: KG Submission year: 2024

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2022
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2022
PMs: 2000 - 2022

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
NOx	1A4cii										2283	2091	1895	1701	1507	1314	1119	993	3077	2450	2029	2155	2784	2443	3449	3371	3247	3334	3412	3201	3168	3236	3126	3126
NOx	3B4gi	195	190	146	97	31	28	30	33	38	42	43	48	51	61	63	60	63	64	61	64	66	67	71	75	76	78	79	83	84	87	85	83	89
NMVOC	2H2	2147	2225	2300	4126	1112	3944	3411	2180	2201	1253	1580	1604	2080	2262	2188	1931	1577	1580	1443	1507	1840	1640	1749	1730	1543	1340	1225	817	1009	1172	1013	1164	1630
NMVOC	3B4gi	2296	2239	1719	1141	364	335	350	384	450	492	506	570	602	715	744	706	738	757	720	748	784	795	838	889	894	922	936	975	992	1025	1002	978	1051
NMVOC	5A						2359	2293	2228	2162	2097	2031	2148	1984	1938	2499	2159	2410	1900	1388	3658	1739	1831	1529	1834	1552	1737	1553	1531	1635	1790	1834	1918	1918
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	31701	31535	29409	29528	23301	37386	36670	35920	36284	40826	41633	42265	42970	43343	44644	44249	45238	46373	50038	52908	51772	54825	57087	60149	63748	60650	61399	63249	69174	68219	66832	66872	71408
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	31701	31535	29409	29528	23301	37386	36670	35920	36284	40826	41633	42265	42970	43343	44644	23635	45238	46373	50038	52908	51772	54825	57087	60149	63748	60650	61399	63249	69174	68219	39465	39416	44326
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	31701	31535	29409	29528	23301	37386	36670	35920	36284	40826	41633	42265	42970	43343	44644	44249	45238	46373	50038	52908	51772	54825	57087	60149	63748	60650	61399	63249	69174	68219	66832	66872	71408
NH3	3B3	3197	2884	1994	1377	957	925	715	749	857	852	821	704	708	673	672	632	646	609	515	498	486	481	450	421	413	409	415	424	417	282	239	240	208
NH3	3B4gi	2226	2171	1667	1107	353	325	340	373	436	477	490	553	584	693	722	685	716	734	698	726	760	770	812	862	867	894	908	946	962	994	971	948	1019
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	45750	45343	42452	39730	34539	33215	32308	33443	34574	35541	36106	36694	37377	37284	38252	39264	41977	43463	44838	46739	47408	48452	49786	51258	53342	54118	55552	56342	57908	59647	60997	62203	62919
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	45750	45343	42452	39730	34539	33215	32308	33443	34574	35541	36106	36694	37377	37284	38252	39264	41977	43463	44838	46739	47408	48452	49786	51258	53342	54118	55552	56342	57908	59647	60997	62203	62919
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	45750	45343	42452	39730	34539	33215	32308	33443	34574	35541	36106	36694	37377	37284	38252	39264	41977	43463	44838	46739	47408	48452	49786	51258	53342	54118	55552	56342	57908	59647	60997	62203	62919

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
BC	1A4cii	67	61	55	48	42	36	32	99	79	65	69	90	79	111	109	105	107	110	103	102	104	101	101

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Pb	1A1a										962034	1075204	1097163	1119030	1140940	1162899	1184809	1140848	1141064	1451881	1371272	1102849	1211009	1292653	1159947	1696093	2060509	1357202	1087572	1177374	929792	1184325	2286351	2286351
Pb	1A2f										80988	91272	101558	111592	121877	132162	142196	146478	203808	106867	133703	130538	256748	466435	722747	967786	630594	702213	725050	968055	579410	494464	529019	529019
Pb	1A4bi	225269	228983	231640	231707	231625	233949	237437	240925	244650	854640	879823	904429	929184	954091	979449	1004628	1117504	1162504	1695962	1751213	1860160	2089671	2245689	2176938	2725050	2248250	2389268	2595665	3352845	3042912	2668368	2250454	2256174
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	225269	228983	231640	231707	231625	233949	237437	240925	244650	1897662	2046299	2103150	2159806	2216908	2274510	2331633	2404830	2507376	3254710	3256188	3093547	3557428	4004777	4059632	5388929	4939353	4448683	4408287	5498274	4552114	4347157	5065824	5071544
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	225269	228983	231640	231707	231625	233949	237437	240925	244650	1897662	2046299	2103150	2159806	2216908	2274510	2331633	2404830	2507376	3254710	3256188	3093547	3557428	4004777	4059632	5388929	4939353	4448683	4408287	5498274	4552114	4347157	5065824	5071544
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	225269	228983	231640	231707	231625	233949	237437	240925	244650	1897662	2046299	2103150	2159806	2216908	2274510	2331633	2404830	2507376	3254710	3256188	3093547	3557428	4004777	4059632	5388929	4939353	4448683	4408287	5498274	4552114	4347157	5065824	5071544
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4672	4749	4804	4806	4804	4852	4925	4997	5074	106955	117345	121183	125019	128866	132720	136559	139962	145483	186212	177595	164834	191237	217158	219629	291328	274116	239062	232175	285466	230557	228323	290386	290505
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4672	4749	4804	4806	4804	4852	4925	4997	5074	106955	117345	121183	125019	128866	132720	136559	139962	145483	186212	177595	164834	191237	217158	219629	291328	274116	239062	232175	285466	230557	228323	290386	290505
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4672	4749	4804	4806	4804	4852	4925	4997	5074	106955	117345	121183	125019	128866	132720	136559	139962	145483	186212	177595	164834	191237	217158	219629	291328	274116	239062	232175	285466	230557	228323	290386	290505

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
PCB	1A4bi	501	509	515	515	515	520	528	535	544	929138	963154	997175	1031513	1065534	1099556	1133570	1302063	1367060	2180113	2259595	2421408	2767609	2999368	2885254	3715621	2975875	3182205	3488992	4638849	4153749	3570412	2921590	2921602
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	501	509	515	515	515	520	528	535	544	2032271	2208709	2285011	2361312	2437614	2513917	2589894	2718968	2857630	3890127	3868515	3762969	4384474	4979594	5057489	6704869	5912199	5517209	5580638	7106411	5857394	5478473	6081564	6081576
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	501	509	515	515	515	520	528	535	544	2032271	2208709	2285011	2361312	2437614	2513917	2589894	2718968	2857630	3890127	3868515	3762969	4384474	4979594	5057489	6704869	5912199	5517209	5580638	7106411	5857394	5478473	6081564	6081576
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	501	509	515	515	515	520	528	535	544	2032271	2208709	2285011	2361312	2437614	2513917	2589894	2718968	2857630	3890127	3868515	3762969	4384474	4979594	5057489	6704869	5912199	5517209	5580638	7106411	5857394	5478473	6081564	6081576